War in the Gulf Is Now Churning the U.S.-China Relationship

 

News Analysis

War in the Gulf Is Now Churning the U.S.-China Relationship

 

With the Xi-Trump summit almost certainly delayed, and tensions rising over the war in Iran, vital issues for both the U.S. and China are also being cast into uncertainty.

 

Lily Kuo

By Lily Kuo

March 17, 2026

Updated 2:18 a.m. ET

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/17/world/asia/iran-war-china-us-trump-xi.html

 

The war in Iran is threatening a fragile détente between China and the United States, with the two powers now moving to postpone a much anticipated summit meeting after President Trump demanded that China send warships to the Gulf.

 

Mr. Trump on Monday said that he had requested that his visit to Beijing at the end of the month be postponed because of the war. Just a day earlier, he threatened to delay the meeting if China did not contribute warships to end Iran’s de facto blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which is squeezing oil markets.

 

“I’d love to, but because of the war, I want to be here,” Mr. Trump said of meeting China’s leader, Xi Jinping. “I’m looking forward to being with him. We have a very good relationship.”

 

In a sign the relationship may not be as warm as Mr. Trump says, Chinese officials have reacted coolly to the president’s call for nations to escort merchant vessels through the strait. When asked on Monday about the president’s proposal, the Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Lin Jian said only that his country called on “all parties to immediately cease military operations.”

 

Outside of official circles, Mr. Trump’s demand has been met with outright ridicule in China.

 

One prominent Chinese blogger said the request was so absurd that the U.S. president might as well as invite Iranian warships to escort U.S. vessels. The Global Times, a Chinese Communist Party tabloid, on Sunday asked, “Is this really about ‘sharing responsibility — or is it about sharing the risk of a war that Washington started and can’t finish?”

 

Other Chinese news outlets, describing the lack of response by other nations, said Mr. Trump had received “a nose full of dust,” or a cold shoulder.

 

Beijing has little incentive to risk Chinese personnel and ships or undermine ties with Iran, its closest partner in the region. Iran has said it is only targeting vessels linked to the United States and its allies, and is allowing ships carrying oil to China to cross the strait.

 

“This is not a difficult question to answer. Regardless of whether Trump comes or not, China will absolutely not send warships to participate in an escort operation,” said Ding Long from the Middle East Studies Institute of Shanghai International Studies University.

 

Dr. Ding said that sending Chinese naval ships would be “tantamount to entering the war and joining the conflict against Iran” — something China is unwilling to do.

 

For Mr. Xi, who is working to cement Beijing’s position as a superpower and global leader, contributing Chinese warships would mean submitting to U.S. leadership.

 

“From Beijing’s perspective, this is an American war rather than China’s problem,” said Claus Soong, an analyst at the Mercator Institute for China Studies who focuses on China’s global strategy. Responding to Mr. Trump’s call to send naval forces would make it look as if “China is following his order,” he said.

 

But not responding at all may jeopardize a trade truce between China and the United States. Beijing has been counting on the summit to lower pressure on China as it tries to overhaul a slowing economy. Beijing wants Washington to reduce support for Taiwan, ease restrictions on technology exports, and extend a pause on tariffs struck last year after months of a bruising trade war.

 

And while China has invested in renewables and electric vehicles to reduce reliance on oil and other foreign energy sources — as well as stockpiling oil before the U.S. and Israel opened their war on Iran — the country is still affected by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. As much as 40 percent of China’s oil imports are shipped through the waterway.

 

Shipping data since the beginning of the war shows that few Chinese vessels are risking the journey, according to an analysis by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. As of Tuesday, at least nine Chinese carriers appeared to be stuck in the Gulf, according to Marine Traffic, a maritime data platform.

 

“Everyone benefits from the reopening of the strait,” said Yun Sun, director of the China program at the Stimson Center in Washington, who said that Beijing may try to mediate or quietly pressure Iran to reopen the strait.

 

Doing more to push for the reopening would help Beijing build good will with Washington before the summit, burnish its image as a responsible great power and help China’s partners in the Gulf, she said.

 

“China just can’t push Iran with one-sided pressure,” Dr. Sun said, adding that Beijing would likely also privately urge the United States and Israel to declare a cease-fire.

 

A delay of the summit between Mr. Trump and Mr. Xi could be in China’s interests, too. If the war drags on, added pressure on Washington could mean more leverage for China.

 

“Both Beijing and Washington have expectations for the summit, but it may be that Trump needs the meeting more as a way to demonstrate that he can make a deal,” Mr. Soong said.

 

Pei-Lin Wu contributed reporting.

 

Lily Kuo is a China correspondent for The Times, based in Taipei.