Strong early turnout in Italy referendum with high stakes for Meloni

 

Strong early turnout in Italy referendum with high stakes for Meloni

 

Higher-than-expected turnout in the vote on judicial reform could improve the odds for the “Yes” camp backed by the prime minister.

 

March 22, 2026 2:18 pm CET

By Martina Sapio

https://www.politico.eu/article/giorgia-meloni-turnout-italy-referendum-with-high-stakes/

 

Voter turnout in Italy’s referendum on judicial reform was 45.86 percent by 11 p.m. on Sunday, signaling a stronger-than-expected start to a vote seen as a key test for Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni.

 

Recent polling indicated that higher turnout could improve the chances of the “Yes” camp backed by Meloni’s government, while lower participation would make a “No” victory more likely. But turnout is so much higher than expected that it’s difficult to know if that reasoning still stands.

 

Government data put participation at 14.92 percent at midday, and 38.65 percent at 7 in the evening. The early figure marks a stronger start than in comparable recent referendums, with turnout at noon standing at just 12.24 percent in the 2020 vote on cutting the number of MPs and 10.1 percent in the 2006 constitutional referendum.

 

Regional data shows northern and central regions leading participation, with Emilia-Romagna, Friuli Venezia Giulia and Lombardy recording the highest turnout so far. Southern regions including Calabria, Basilicata and Sicily are trailing in turnout.

 

At the heart of the vote is a deeply contested reform of the Italian judiciary. The most controversial element is a proposal to overhaul how members of the Superior Council of the Judiciary (CSM) — the body that governs judges’ careers — are selected. Instead of being elected, most members would be chosen by lottery under the proposal.

 

Supporters of the reform argue the change would break the influence of internal factions within the judiciary and reduce politicization. Critics say it risks undermining merit and representation, potentially allowing underqualified and political candidates to oversee key decisions on appointments and discipline.

 

Final results are expected after polls close on Monday at 3 p.m. The referendum does not require a minimum turnout, meaning the reform will be approved or rejected based solely on the majority of votes cast.

 

This article has been updated.