5m tonnes of CO2 emitted in just 14 days of US war on Iran, analysis finds

 

5m tonnes of CO2 emitted in just 14 days of US war on Iran, analysis finds

 

Exclusive: War in the Middle East is draining the global carbon budget faster than 84 countries combined

 

Damien Gayle

Sat 21 Mar 2026 12.00 GMT

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/21/middle-east-iran-conflict-environment-climate

 

The US-Israel war on Iran is a disaster for the climate, according to an analysis that finds it is draining the global carbon budget faster than 84 countries combined.

 

As warplanes, drones and missiles kill thousands of people, level infrastructure and turn the Middle East into a gigantic environmental sacrifice zone, the first analysis of the climate cost has found the conflict led to 5m tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions in its first 14 days.

 

The analysis, shared exclusively with the Guardian, adds another layer on to reporting of the catastrophic environmental harm being caused by attacks on fossil fuel infrastructure, military bases, civilian areas and ships at sea.

 

“Every missile strike is another downpayment on a hotter, more unstable planet, and none of it makes anyone safer,” said Patrick Bigger, a research director at the Climate and Community Institute and a co-author of the analysis.

 

“Every refinery fire and tanker strike is a reminder that fossil‑fuelled geopolitics is incompatible with a livable planet. This war shows, yet again, that the fastest way to supercharge the climate crisis is to let fossil fuel interests dictate foreign policy.”

 

The US-Israeli axis claims to have bombed thousands of targets inside Iran, and Israel has hit hundreds more targets in Lebanon. Reports from inside both countries show extensive destruction of infrastructure.

 

Destroyed buildings constitute the largest element of the estimated carbon cost. Based on reports by the Iranian Red Crescent humanitarian organisation that about 20,000 civilian buildings have been damaged by the conflict, the analysis estimates the total emissions from this sector to be 2.4m tonnes of CO2 equivalent (tCO2e).

 

Fuel is the second biggest element, with US heavy bombers flying from as far away as the west of England to carry out raids over Iran. The analysis estimates between 150m and 270m litres of fuel were consumed by aircraft and support vessels and vehicles in the first 14 days, producing a total emission of 529,000 tCO2e.

 

One of the most shocking images of the war has been the dark clouds and black rain that fell over Tehran after Israel bombed four major fuel storage depots surrounding the city, setting millions of litres of fuel ablaze. The analysis estimates that between 2.5m and 5.9m barrels of oil have been burned in that attack and similar strikes – including Iranian retaliations on its Gulf neighbours – emitting an estimated 1.88m tCO2e.

 

In the first 14 days, the US lost four aircraft, while Iran lost 28 aircraft, 21 naval vessels and about 300 missile launchers. This destroyed military hardware is estimated to account for embodied carbon emissions of 172,000 tCO2e.

 

There are also the bombs, missiles and drones themselves, the use of which has been extensive on all sides. Based on claims that in the first 14 days the US and Israel had bombed more than 6,000 targets inside Iran, while Iran had fired back about 1,000 missiles and 2,000 drones, plus an estimated 1,900 interceptors fired to defend against them, the analysis estimated that munitions contributed about 55,000 tCO2e in emissions.

 

In total, the first two weeks of the conflict led to emissions of 5,055,016 tCO2e, equivalent to 131,430,416 tCO2e in a year – roughly the same as a medium-size, fossil fuel-intensive economy such as Kuwait. But it is also the same as the 84 lowest emitting countries combined.

 

Fred Otu-Larbi, the study’s lead author, from the University of Energy and Natural Resources in Ghana, said: “We expect emissions to increase rapidly as the conflict proceeds, mainly due to the speed [at] which oil facilities are being targeted at an alarming rate.”

 

He added: “We all need to live with the climate aftermaths. Just what are the costs, no one really knows, that is why studies like this are so vital. Burning up the annual emissions of Iceland in two weeks is something we really cannot afford.”

 

As of June last year, climate scientists estimated humans could emit greenhouse gases equivalent to 130bn tonnes of CO2 to leave us with a 50% chance of stopping the climate from heating beyond 1.5C. At the present rate of 40bn tCO2e that budget will be exhausted by 2028.

 

Bigger said the disruption to fossil fuel supplies caused by the war would probably lead to more drilling. “Historically, every US‑driven energy shock has been followed by a surge in new drilling, new LNG terminals and new fossil‑fuel infrastructure. This war risks hard‑wiring another generation of carbon dependence.

 

“This is not a war for security. It’s a war for the political economy of fossil fuels – and the people paying the price are Iranian civilians and working‑class communities around the world.”