Iran war
energy crisis equal to 70s twin oil shocks and fallout from Ukraine war, says
IEA chief
Fatih
Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), warned on
March 23, 2026, that the current energy crisis triggered by the war in Iran is
now more severe than the combined impact of the 1970s oil shocks and the 2022
Russia-Ukraine gas crisis.
Key
Comparison Figures
Oil
Supply Loss: The world has lost 11 million barrels per day (mb/d) as of March
2026.
For
context, the 1973 and 1979 oil shocks each resulted in losses of roughly 5
mb/d, totaling 10 mb/d.
Gas
Supply Loss: The crisis has removed approximately 140 billion cubic meters
(BCM) of gas from the market.
This is
nearly double the 75 BCM lost following the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Primary
Drivers of the Crisis
Strait of
Hormuz Blockade: Birol identified the closure of this vital waterway—which
handles 20% of global oil and LNG—as the single most critical factor.
Infrastructure
Damage: At least 40 energy assets (refineries, pipelines, and fields) across
nine countries have been severely damaged, meaning supply cannot be immediately
restored even if the conflict ends.
Geopolitical
Ultimatums: The crisis is being exacerbated by a 48-hour deadline from
President Trump for Iran to reopen the Strait or face strikes on its power
plants.
IEA
Recommendations and Emergency Measures
Demand-Side
Actions: To mitigate the shock, the IEA is urging governments to implement
measures like increased remote working, temporary speed limit reductions, and
reduced air travel.
Strategic
Reserves: Member nations agreed on March 11 to a record release of 400 million
barrels from emergency stockpiles. Birol has signaled the IEA is consulting on
further releases if necessary.
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