Opinion
Guest
Essay
Trump
Wants You to Believe Climate Change Isn’t Dangerous
July 30,
2025
By
Solomon Hsiang and Marshall Burke
Dr.
Hsiang and Dr. Burke are professors at Stanford who measure how climate
influences human health and economic systems.
Update:
On Feb. 12, 2026, the Environmental Protection Agency repealed the scientific
finding that gives the government the legal authority to regulate greenhouse
gases.
We study
the effects of climate change on people. We know, from the best available
science, that climate change will endanger the health and livelihood of most
Americans alive today.
After a
long and sweeping review, the U.S. government came to a similar conclusion in
2009, when the federal Environmental Protection Agency issued a so-called
endangerment finding — a move that signaled a high level of government
confidence in the data it was reviewing.
The
finding established that carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases that cause
climate change are harmful pollutants. In turn, this meant that these gases
could be regulated by the Clean Air Act, empowering the E.P.A. to issue
regulations on emissions of these gases from cars, trucks, power plants and
other sources, backed by stronger science.
Reasonable
people will disagree about how best to address climate change. The purpose of
America’s endangerment finding is to acknowledge that a hazard exists so that
the government can protect Americans from it. Think of the finding like car
headlights in the dark, helping us see dangers ahead and avoid them.
The Trump
administration this week took the first step to overturn the finding, by
issuing a proposal that claims that the rule is scientifically and legally
invalid, as well as unjustifiably costly. After a comment period, the
administration could try to finalize the withdrawal of the finding next year.
The
consequence — and likely goal — of the administration’s gamble, if it succeeds
against inevitable legal challenges, will be to begin unraveling several
regulations that have begun to make a dent in America’s contribution to climate
change and the hazards it creates.
A key
element of the administration’s proposal is to redefine what it means for air
pollution to cause harm. If a pollutant causes climate change, it would no
longer count as hurting us. This runs counter to both basic logic and a growing
mountain of science documenting direct harms from greenhouse gas emissions via
climate change.
Why are
we so confident in the dangers ahead? Humans are highly adaptable and Americans
are particularly so, but the data and evidence indicate that climate change
will cause many Americans to die earlier than they otherwise would. High
temperatures will kill Americans by stressing underlying conditions, such as
heart disease. We expect that intensifying hurricanes, more frequent floods and
smoke from more frequent forest fires together will most likely kill millions
of Americans in the coming century.
In
addition to intensifying natural threats, climate change will make households
and communities in America more dangerous for their inhabitants. Environmental
conditions affect our bodies and minds, particularly how we make decisions and
turn to violence. Higher temperatures are associated with more miscarriages and
more domestic violence. While perhaps surprising, the link between rape and
temperature is one of the strongest findings in our field. We fear that
additional heat from climate change will lead to more suicides, murders and
assaults.
Climate
change will increase the frequency and intensity of acute disasters, such as
the recent devastating fires in Maui, Los Angeles and Paradise, Calif.; the
floods in Texas; and the hurricane damage in Puerto Rico and North Carolina. As
health insurance and property insurance become more expensive or access to
coverage disappears, coping with these risks will be increasingly expensive.
Taxpayers will bear many additional costs when uninsured losses fall to public
social safety net programs.
Farmers
are expected to suffer some of the most serious losses to climate change.
Annual crop losses throughout much of the Corn Belt are projected to be
significant. Agricultural innovation, which we once expected to compensate for
these losses, appears more sluggish than predicted. Losing access to water
resources will drive up costs for farmers, and climate change will hurt the
value of American farmland.
The Trump
administration argues that slowing greenhouse gas emissions has harmed the
economy and impedes business — but climate change will, too, only more so.
Economic growth will slow, food prices will very likely rise, and vast tracts
of American real estate will lose value. We predict that workers will become
less productive, less happy and more prone to safety errors. Demands on public
services will increase while the cost of servicing new debt will probably rise.
In contrast, climate change is expected to generally enhance some economic
opportunities for Russia and Canada.
Parents
may feel a growing urgency to warn their children about climate change, since
it will reduce their opportunities in life. Exposure to high temperatures in
school or regional disasters lowers their ability to learn and perform well on
exams. Rising temperatures at home and other climate changes worsen sleep,
exercise, mental health and happiness.
Learning
about the consequences of climate change can feel overwhelming and scary, like
staring over the edge of a cliff. Unlike our ancestors who relied on stars, tea
leaves and fortune tellers to try to peer into the future, we have data and
scientific tools that empower us to understand the results of the different
choices in front of us.
Previously,
the E.P.A. led the world in bringing the best available science to climate
policy discussions. Overturning the endangerment finding would bench the agency
right when we need the E.P.A.’s tools the most.
There are
opportunities to push back. The public can comment on the administration’s
proposal. And when legal challenges to this rollback end up in federal court,
judges should recognize the overwhelming evidence on the dangers of greenhouse
gases to Americans.
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