News
Analysis
With
Minerals Deal, Trump Ties Himself to Future of Ukraine
The text of
the agreement, made public by Ukraine’s government, made no mention of the
security guarantees that Kyiv had long sought.
Kim Barker
By Kim
Barker
Reporting
from Kyiv, Ukraine
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/01/world/europe/ukraine-trump-minerals-deal.html
May 1, 2025
The minerals
deal signed by the United States and Ukraine on Wednesday could bring untold
money into a joint investment fund between the two countries that would help
rebuild Ukraine whenever the war with Russia ends.
But
Ukraine’s untapped resources that are the subject of the deal will take years
to extract and yield profits. And those could fail to deliver the kind of
wealth that President Trump has long said they would.
It is not
yet clear how the nine-page deal, the text of which Ukraine’s government made
public on Thursday, will work in practice. Many specifics need to be worked
out, but the deal will set up an investment fund, jointly managed by Kyiv and
Washington.
Although the
Trump administration had wanted Kyiv to use its mineral wealth to repay past
U.S. military assistance, the final text removes the idea of treating that aid
as debt. The
deal also seemed to specifically keep the door open for Ukraine to eventually
join the European Union, a move that neither the United States nor Russia has
opposed.
There was no
mention of a security guarantee — which Ukraine had long sought to prevent
Russia from regrouping after any cease-fire. But the deal does mean that the
United States could send more military aid to Ukraine if a peace deal is not
reached.
The
much-anticipated signing of the agreement has almost certainly accomplished one
thing that seemed almost impossible two months ago: It has tied Mr. Trump to
Ukraine’s future.
“This
agreement signals clearly to Russia that the Trump administration is committed
to a peace process centered on a free, sovereign and prosperous Ukraine over
the long term,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in announcing the
agreement on Wednesday.
Analysts
agreed on Thursday that the deal could guarantee Mr. Trump’s interest in
Ukraine now that he is publicly invested.
“He’s a
businessman — he always does the math,” said Volodymyr Fesenko, a leading
political analyst in Kyiv. “His business mind-set shapes his approach to
politics. So his motivation in the agreement could help maintain U.S. interest
in Ukraine. How this will work out in practice, only time will tell.”
Ukraine’s
Parliament still has to ratify the agreement, which will probably happen in the
next 10 days, officials said on Thursday.
In the end,
it appears that Ukraine managed to get some of what it wanted, but not
everything. The notable omission was the absence of a security guarantee.
“The
agreement has changed significantly,” President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine
said in a social-media post on Thursday evening. He added, “Now it is a truly
equal agreement that creates an opportunity for investments in Ukraine.”
The
investment fund will be financed with revenues from new projects in critical
minerals, oil and gas — and not from projects that are already operating. In
theory, it would be a 50-50 partnership in which Ukraine and the United States
each would put the same amount into the fund and run it equally.
Anna
Skorokhod, a Ukrainian Parliament member from an opposition political party,
said she was briefed about the deal at a government meeting on Thursday. Ms.
Skorokhod said she was told the Americans would put money into the fund — and
the equivalent dollar amount of what any future military aid to Ukraine would
cost.
The
Ukrainians will put money into the fund from mining licenses issued for
investors and royalties from the mineral resources developed under the deal.
Half of that money will go into the Ukrainian budget; half will go into the
joint investment fund. Senior Ukrainian officials confirmed that understanding.
Ms.
Skorokhod said she was hesitant to support the deal because it lacked
specifics. “It looks good, but we don’t know if it’s true or it’s a fairy tale
for us to vote,” she said.
The fund
would be established by both governments and managed by a limited-liability
company formed in Delaware and run by three Ukrainians and three Americans, Ms.
Skorokhod said. Profits would go to rebuild Ukraine after the war for the first
10 years; after that, it’s not clear what would happen with the profits.
The final
terms will be detailed in future agreements.
The signing
of the deal on Mr. Trump’s 100th day in office was the latest twist in his
ever-shifting approach to the war, which Russia started with its full-scale
invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
Mr. Trump
has falsely blamed Kyiv for instigating the war and seemed to find more of a
kinship with President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia than with anyone in Ukraine.
He has repeatedly questioned why the United States became Kyiv’s biggest ally
under President Joseph R. Biden Jr. And he has made no secret of his irritation
with Mr. Zelensky and Kyiv’s requests for more military assistance.
The nadir of
the relationship between Ukraine and the United States came on Feb. 28, when
Mr. Zelensky and Mr. Trump were initially expected to sign a profit-sharing
minerals deal in the Oval Office. The meeting was a disaster. Mr. Trump and
Vice President JD Vance publicly castigated Mr. Zelensky, who was abruptly
asked to leave the White House. In the fallout, the Trump administration
temporarily suspended military aid and intelligence sharing with Ukraine.
But Mr.
Trump has also repeatedly said he wants to end the war, even campaigning on the
promise he would do so in 24 hours. He has since said he was not being literal.
As the Trump
administration has pressured both Russia and Ukraine to agree to a peace deal —
or at the least, a 30-day cease-fire — Ukraine has tried to look like the
reasonable party. Mr. Zelensky, who has worked to smooth relations with the
Trump administration after the Oval Office debacle, immediately agreed to the
idea of an unconditional 30-day truce; Mr. Putin did not.
Still, for
Ukraine, the minerals deal offered an opportunity for some leverage, even as
critics described it as extortion.
The
Ukrainian government initially highlighted the country’s mineral holdings to
the Trump administration, hoping to draw some investment and to help solidify
the relationship between the two countries.
Ukrainian
officials say the country holds deposits of more than 20 critical minerals; one
consulting firm valued them at several trillion dollars. But the minerals may
not be easy to extract, and the Soviet-era maps identifying the locations of
the critical deposits have never been modernized nor necessarily thoroughly
vetted.
Kyiv had
desperately wanted the deal to include some kind of security guarantee from the
United States. Without one, officials feared, Russia could violate any
cease-fire — which Moscow has done before.
Mr. Trump,
though, has said that having a joint investment fund with the United States
would be a security guarantee in its own right — that if U.S. companies and the
U.S. government were invested in Ukraine’s future, that alone will deter
Russia.
In many
ways, despite all the back-and-forth, the deal signed on Wednesday with little
fanfare resembled the one that fell apart in February.
Reaction to
the deal was mixed in Ukraine on Thursday.
Vira Zhdan,
36, who lives in the southern Ukrainian city of Zaporizhzhia, which frequently
comes under Russian attack, said the deal could unfairly siphon off money from
Ukrainian resources to U.S. investors.
“These are
snares that tighten around us and drag our country into a deeper and deeper
pit,” she said. “We live here and now, but it will be our descendants who have
to deal with the consequences. This will, undoubtedly, leave a significant mark
on them.”
But Svitlana
Mahmudova-Bardadyn, 46, who lives in the Sumy region near the border with
Russia, said she hoped the deal meant Ukraine would receive more U.S. support —
like weapons. She also said she hoped “that this full-scale war will finally
end, that things will get better for us.”
That all
remained to be seen on Thursday, with the text of the agreement vague and
Ukrainian officials staying mum on any promises that might have been made.
Instead, the
deal’s language referred to “an expression of a broader, long-term strategic
alignment” between the two countries, “a tangible demonstration of the United
States of America’s support” for Ukraine’s security and reconstruction. And it
made it clear who would not stand to gain.
The
agreement says the United States and Ukraine want to ensure that countries
“that have acted adversely to Ukraine in the conflict do not benefit from the
reconstruction of Ukraine” once peace is reached — in other words, Russia.
Oleksandra
Mykolyshyn contributed reporting.
Kim Barker
is a Times reporter writing in-depth stories about the war in Ukraine.
Sem comentários:
Enviar um comentário