Analysis
US peace
plan emerges as freezing of Ukraine frontlines with concessions to Putin
Andrew Roth
in Washington and Pjotr Sauer
Russia said
to have signalled it could halt war in return for US recognition of its control
of Crimea and sanctions relief
Wed 23 Apr
2025 22.00 CEST
The contours
of the White House’s “final” peace proposal to halt the Russian invasion of
Ukraine have come into focus with proposals to freeze the frontlines in
exchange for terms that critics have termed a surrender to Russian interests in
the the three-year-old conflict.
Three people
with knowledge of the talks told the Guardian that Vladimir Putin had signalled
a readiness to effectively freeze the frontlines of the conflict in exchange
for numerous concessions, including US recognition of Russian control of Crimea
and considerable US sanctions relief. The Financial Times first reported
Putin’s proposal on Tuesday.
The
vice-president, JD Vance, confirmed on Wednesday that the US would seek to
“freeze the territorial lines at some level close to where they are today”.
Some territory could change hands, he said.
“The current
lines, or somewhere close to them, is where you’re ultimately … going to draw
the new lines in the conflict,” he said. “Now, of course, that means the
Ukrainians and the Russians are both going to have to give up some of the
territory they currently own.”
But reports
of the US proposal do not include other Kremlin demands, including a limit on
the future size of the Ukrainian military or a ban on foreign troops in the
country. Russia had listed concerns over Ukraine’s military and foreign backing
as among its “root causes” for launching its 2022 full-scale invasion.
A draft
version of the White House proposal seen by Axios reported that Russia would
receive de jure recognition of Moscow’s control of Crimea, de facto recognition
of Russia’s occupation of much of eastern Ukraine, and a promise that Ukraine
would not become a member of Nato (although it could join the EU).
Russia could
also receive sanctions relief for its energy sector, enabling the Kremlin to
increase vital revenue flows that have been impeded since the invasion.
Ukraine, in
turn, would receive a “robust security guarantee” from an ad hoc group of
European nations, although the draft did not describe how a peacekeeping force
would operate or whether the US would take part. Ukraine would also be promised
unimpeded passage on the Dnipro River and some territory in the Kharkiv region,
along with vaguely defined pledges for future financial support for rebuilding.
Senior
Russian officials have said Moscow will not take part in talks that include
discussions of a European peacekeeping force in Ukraine. “Russia is still
against [the presence of European peacekeepers],” the Kremlin spokesperson,
Dmitry Peskov, told reporters on Wednesday. “That would be de facto Nato forces
and resources on the territory of Ukraine. It was one of the main reasons for
the start of the special military operation.”
The US
decision to recognise Crimea would be politically contentious in Ukraine and
would mark a turning point in US postwar policy, with the White House
effectively endorsing a Russian effort to redraw the borders of Europe by
force.
The
Ukrainian leader, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, said this week that Ukraine “will not
legally recognise the occupation of Crimea … There’s nothing to talk about
here. This is against our constitution.”
Donald Trump
reacted angrily to Zelenskyy’s remarks on Wednesday, calling them “very harmful
to the Peace Negotiations with Russia”.
“Nobody is
asking Zelenskyy to recognize Crimea as Russian Territory but, if he wants
Crimea, why didn’t they fight for it eleven years ago when it was handed over
to Russia without a shot being fired?” he wrote.
“The
situation for Ukraine is dire,” he said. Zelenskyy “can have peace or, he can
fight for another three years before losing the whole country”.
Moscow also
appears to be eyeing the deal favourably. “There is a chance to make a deal,”
said one source close to the Kremlin. “But they could also miss that chance.”
A draft of
the plan seen by Axios, as well as the Telegraph, said that Ukraine would
retain control over the Zaporizhzhia power plant but it would be managed by the
US, which would supply electricity to both Ukraine and Russia.
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