Mark Carney Swept Canada, but There Will be No Honeymoon

 

news analysis

Mark Carney Swept Canada, but There Will be No Honeymoon

 

The Canadian prime minister achieved a stunning political upset, running on an anti-Trump platform and promising to revive the economy. Now, he needs to deliver.

 

Matina Stevis-Gridneff

By Matina Stevis-Gridneff

Reporting from Ottawa

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/29/world/canada/canada-election-carney-trump.html

April 29, 2025

 

Canada’s banker-turned-prime-minister pulled off a political miracle, leading his party from polling abyss to a rare fourth term in power, and securing the top government job after entering electoral politics just three months ago.

 

Mark Carney, the country’s new leader, told Canadians that he was the right person to stand up to President Trump and that, with his economics expertise, he knew how to boost the country’s lackluster economy and fortify it in turbulent times.

 

Now he has to actually do all of that, and quickly, as his country moves from a prolonged period of political turmoil and faces the fallout of a trade war with its closest ally and economic  partner: the United States.

 

Mess at Home

When Mr. Carney’s predecessor, Justin Trudeau, announced in January that he would resign after 10 years leading Canada, he created a rare opportunity that Mr. Carney jumped at.

 

But after Mr. Carney won the race to replace Mr. Trudeau in March as prime minister and leader of the Liberal Party, he also inherited a messy situation at home that he must now urgently take on.

 

The Canadian Parliament has not been in session since before Christmas, after Mr. Trudeau suspended its activities to be able to hold the Liberal leadership election that elevated Mr. Carney.

 

As a result, the country has been in a state of political instability for months with no ability to pursue a legislative agenda.

 

And Mr. Carney doesn’t yet have his own cabinet — he made small changes to the one he inherited from Mr. Trudeau, but he is likely to put his personal stamp on the government by choosing top ministers now that he’s won the national elections.

 

What’s more, the Liberals did not manage to clinch a majority of seats in the House of Commons and will need to court three members from smaller parties to get their policies passed in the 343-seat chamber. 

 

Mr. Carney will need to move swiftly to win the necessary parliamentary allies and ensure the stability of his party while keeping it from becoming vulnerable to collapsing through a vote of no confidence, which would trigger new elections.

 

“The first order of business is getting a cabinet and getting Parliament back as soon as possible,” said Matthew Holmes, a senior executive at the Canadian Chambers of Commerce, which represents business interests.

 

“We need to see the prime minister come in and quickly move into lawmaking,” Mr. Holmes said. “There is no honeymoon for this prime minister.”

 

Stability now

A key pitch to Canadians that worked in Mr. Carney’s favor at the ballot box was that he was exactly the right leader to navigate the reordering of global trade and security prompted by Mr. Trump.

 

Mr. Carney’s past experience leading major institutions through upheaval, including the Bank of England through Brexit, were key in convincing many Canadians who backed him that his credentials were aligned for the challenges Canada faces.

 

Canadian businesses are looking to Mr. Carney to restore a sense of order to commerce with the United States. Mr. Trump’s tariffs on Canadian goods have been a moving target, with the administration pulling back on some levies, while applying new ones, with no sense of a coherent economic rationale.  The result has been a halt to private sector investment in Canada, Mr. Holmes said. Mr. Carney should address that immediately, he said.

 

“Capital is frozen and paralyzed watching the trade war play out and not knowing what the future is going to be,” Mr. Holmes said. “He needs to inject certainty in that.”

 

Anti-Trump

Mr. Carney’s framing of his campaign around Mr. Trump’s threats to Canada has elevated him to a global anti-Trump figure. He is the first major leader to be elected on an explicitly anti-Trump campaign since Mr. Trump’s re-election.

 

“As I’ve been warning for months, America wants our land, our resources, our water,” Mr. Carney told supporters gathered in Ottawa, Canada’s capital, in the early hours Tuesday to celebrate his victory. “President Trump is trying to break us so he can own us. That will never happen,” he added as the crowd booed.

 

Later on Tuesday, the two men spoke by phone, their offices said, and agreed to meet soon.

 

Mr. Carney’s fiery rhetoric could prove a problem if the two leaders do talk in person. Mr. Carney has said he wants to gain Mr. Trump’s respect, while also being open to discussions about what the future relationship between the two countries on various issues, including trade and security, will look like.

 

“There is an appetite in the West to find an anti-Trump figure to take up the mantle of leader of the free world,” said Stephen Wertheim, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “I think that’s a hazardous proposition.”

 

“The minute the media starts hyping a foreign leader as the hand of global anti-Trump resistance, that will put a target on that leader’s back,” Mr. Wertheim added.  

 

Mr. Carney is likely to strike a more nuanced tone behind closed doors with Mr. Trump, but the Canadian public will be looking for the defiance and pride that he promised on the campaign trail.

 

And the fact remains that the United States has imposed tariffs on key Canadian sectors, like the auto industry, and that Mr. Trump continues to regularly say he wants Canada to become the 51st state, including on Canada’s Election Day.

 

Mr. Wertheim said Mr. Carney should ignore the threats and focus on striking a deal. “I think Carney shouldn’t get too fixated on the annexation threat,” he said. “If Trump makes one, it will probably be half a joke, and Carney should dish it right back and smile.”

 

Playing Host

An early test of Mr. Carney’s ability to manage dealing with Mr. Trump will take place when he hosts the summit of the Group of 7 industrialized economies leaders in Kananaskis, Alberta, in June.

 

Mr. Trump is expected to attend, and will find himself among America’s closest allies, all of whom have been hit with U.S. tariffs.

 

Mr. Carney, on the contrary, will be among friends, in his own backyard. He has a personal relationship with President Emmanuel Macron of France and Prime Minister Keir Starmer of Britain, and is seeking to negotiate a military spending  deal with Ursula von der Leyen, the top European Union official.

 

It is unclear what, if anything, will be decided at the summit since global gatherings like these tend to be about coordinating policy at a higher level rather than yielding anything specific.

 

Still, there is a large margin for error. The last time Mr. Trump attended a G7 summit in Canada, he had a blowup with Mr. Trudeau, left without signing an anodyne joint communiqué, and then called Mr. Trudeau “two-faced.”

 

Mr. Carney will need to closely stage-manage the event to try to prevent any unpleasantries.

 

“The G7 leaders’ summit in June will really shape the early assessment of his success,” Mr. Holmes said. “This is what he campaigned on, that he can handle a very complex geopolitical international situation.”

 

Matina Stevis-Gridneff is the Canada bureau chief for The Times, leading coverage of the country.