Reform woos voters before potential byelection test in Labour stronghold

 

Reform woos voters before potential byelection test in Labour stronghold

 

Nigel Farage writes to constituents in Runcorn and Helsby after Labour MP Mike Amesbury charged with assault

 

Michael Savage

Sun 29 Dec 2024 07.00 GMT

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/dec/29/reform-woos-voters-before-potential-byelection-test-in-labour-stronghold

 

Nigel Farage’s Reform UK is planning to use a potential byelection to test its strength in Labour strongholds as it seeks to deploy its growing membership in local elections.

 

The party has been attempting to keep up its momentum after securing five MPs and more than 4m votes at the general election. Farage provoked a row with the Tory leader Kemi Badenoch last week by claiming Reform now has more members than the Conservatives. He has also been trying to persuade Elon Musk, the world’s richest man, to make a massive donation to his party.

 

However, insiders are now examining the political opportunity that could arise in the Cheshire seat of Runcorn and Helsby, where MP Mike Amesbury was charged with assault last month after an incident following a night out. He has yet to appear in court. Amesbury was elected as a Labour MP, but was suspended by the party after the allegations emerged. He has described the incident as “deeply regrettable”.

 

Recall petitions can be used to trigger a byelection if an MP is either handed a custodial or suspended sentence, or suspended from the House of Commons for 10 days or more.

 

Reform figures said they were already circulating campaign material in Runcorn, with a letter from Farage being delivered to homes across the constituency, along with party leaflets. Labour recorded an almost 15,000-strong majority in the seat at the election, with Reform a distant second. However, insiders said a new contest could both test the party’s ability to perform well in Labour areas and challenge its growing membership.

 

They also said the prevailing political conditions could be favourable. Reform gained a seat from Labour at a council byelection this month in St Helens, about 10 miles from Runcorn across the River Mersey, though just 16.3% of voters cast a ballot.

 

“We are first out of the blocks on this one,” said a Reform source. “The Labour majority is massive, but when you look at the demographics in all areas, it is everything you would want for a Reform seat. If you wanted to win somewhere with such a large majority, you’d probably need an unpopular government, a bad economy and a scandal. Obviously, you’ve got all three.

 

“People think their public services are getting worse, and we think we have a story to tell on that. It’s also about community and promoting the family. People forget that we are opposing the two-child benefit cap. We think we can be the party that lets people show their anger at the Labour government.”

 

The latest Opinium poll for the Observer, carried out last week, put Reform almost neck and neck with the Tories on 22% of the vote. While Labour had a lead, it only recorded support from 29% of the electorate. This has given Reform figures confidence they can make inroads into both Labour and Tory support at the local elections in May.

 

The plans for a test of strength against Labour come with the party also squaring up to the Tories over Badenoch’s allegation that Reform had used “fakery” in its party membership claims. With Farage weighing up what action to take over Badenoch’s intervention, he again called on the Tory leader to apologise yesterday.

 

Reform says it invited a number of independent outlets to review its systems to validate its claims about growing membership numbers, which it says stand at more than 140,000 so far. Badenoch had said Reform’s membership counter was “coded to tick up automatically”. Farage has accused her of engaging in a “crazy conspiracy theory”.

 

Yesterday, Reform figures appeared to be dampening the idea of taking legal action against Badenoch, but the party’s deputy leader, Richard Tice, warned her that she would anger her own MPs if she continued to engage in an argument with Reform over the issue.

 

“She should just recognise and actually get some credit for saying, ‘Look, I got this wrong, had a bit of a dodgy Christmas pudding or whatever’ and just apologise,” he told Times Radio. “It looks ridiculous.

 

“I hope she does the right thing and apologises and just moves on. Otherwise, I suspect she’ll have 120 Tory MPs behind her aghast at her misstep during this festive season.”

 

Tice also conceded that some of the party’s new members might not be entitled to vote in the UK, but said this was true of any political party membership. “The reality is that there is a wide spread of ages joining, but anybody can be a member of a political party from all over the world,” he said. “There’s a difference between membership of a political party and the right to vote.”

 

The Conservatives are not backing down from their accusations, however. A party source said Farage had been “rattled” by Badenoch’s intervention, adding: “Like most normal people around the UK, Kemi is enjoying Christmas with her family and looking forward to taking on the challenges of renewing the Conservative party in the new year.”