Pedro
Sánchez’s nightmare before Christmas
Corruption
probes around the prime minister of Spain are coming to a head at a crucial
moment for his fragile government.
December 24,
2024 4:01 am CET
By Guy
Hedgecoe
https://www.politico.eu/article/pedro-sanchez-corruption-probes-socialists-peoples-party/
MADRID —
Pedro Sánchez is experiencing “hell before Christmas.”
That’s the
claim of the opposition conservative People’s Party (PP), voiced by
spokesperson Cuca Gamarra, as Sánchez seeks to fend off a barrage of corruption
probes into members of his family — and his party.
The
Socialist leader’s allies insist the scandals are part of a politically
motivated witch hunt and coincide with his difficulties in maintaining a
tenuous parliamentary majority.
“The
government of Pedro Sánchez is at a critical juncture, it’s in a very difficult
position,” said political scientist Lluís Orriols, author of “Democracia de
trincheras” (“Trench Democracy”).
“His
previous legislature was long and very successful in terms of legislative
output and parliamentary stability — but now the situation is the polar
opposite.”
Three
separate probes affecting people close to Sánchez are underway: into his wife
and his brother, and another into alleged graft by senior members of his party.
Family
affairs
Sánchez’s
wife, Begoña Gómez, has been under investigation since April following
allegations she used her position as spouse of the prime minister to sway the
awarding of government contracts. She is also being investigated for allegedly
appropriating software from Complutense University where she worked.
On Dec. 18
she appeared for a third time before the judge leading the investigation,
denying wrongdoing.
In a
separate case, Sánchez’s musician brother — David Sánchez — is being
investigated for alleged irregularities during his hiring as director of the
office of performing arts in the southwestern province of Badajoz. He is due to
testify in court Jan. 9.
Far-right
campaign organization Manos Limpias filed the legal complaints that triggered
both probes, which Sánchez’s allies have cast as part of a right-wing campaign
— involving the media and politically compromised magistrates — to undermine
his government.
“We know
that they want to corral you through your family, we know that they are going
after you because you represent the best of progress in Spain,” María Jesús
Montero, finance minister and deputy secretary of the Socialist Workers’ Party
(PSOE), told Sánchez at a recent rally.
In April,
when the probe into his wife began just five months after he formed a new
coalition government, Sánchez threatened to resign over what he said was an
attempt “to dehumanize and delegitimize the political adversary through
scandalous and false accusations.”
Although
both cases relating to family members have dominated headlines in right-aligned
newspapers, neither has so far led to charges, and many observers expect them
eventually to be shelved.
However,
another investigation — into the activities of businessman Víctor de Aldama —
is likely to be much more damaging. Aldama claims to have been the intermediary
in the payment of commissions to members of government in exchange for the
awarding of public works contracts to private firms.
Socialists
accused of corruption
José Luis
Ábalos, a former transport and public works minister and a heavyweight in the
PSOE, was implicated following the February arrest of his close advisor, Koldo
García.
Although the
PSOE swiftly moved to expel Ábalos (who maintains his innocence), Aldama made
further allegations that implicate other prominent Socialists, most recently
when he testified in court Dec. 17.
While Aldama
has provided no hard evidence to substantiate his claims, the opposition has
presented the three separate investigations as proof the administration has a
rotten underbelly.
“It is
absolute cowardice for them to say that they are being persecuted,” said PP
spokesperson Gamarra. “No, they are not being persecuted — these are facts, it
is the criminal code.”
Pablo Simón,
a political scientist at Madrid’s Carlos III University, says that beyond their
legal impact, all three probes have a political knock-on effect. “The
government loses control of the agenda, so it is unable to ensure that the
issues it wants to be talked about are talked about — such as the economy.”
With its
strong growth, controlled inflation and robust job creation, Spain topped a
recent Economist ranking of the best-performing economies in the world.
However, Sánchez’s government has struggled to benefit from such indicators as
it bats away corruption-related attacks and defends concessions made to keep
its parliamentary majority intact.
If the
Aldama scandal does snowball, Simón said, “it could mean that supporting the
government ends up becoming radioactive” for other parties.
Fragile
coalition
So far, the
junior coalition partner — left-wing Sumar — has stood by the PSOE. However,
with its majority depending on a broad array of parties including Catalan and
Basque nationalists, the government’s stability is shaky.
That became
apparent when the Catalan separatist party Junts, Sánchez’s most restive ally,
this month proposed a no-confidence motion against him for the coming weeks,
claiming he had failed to deliver on previous commitments. Junts, the party of
the self-exiled Carles Puigdemont, is not expected to follow through on the
threat. Rather, it is seen as an effort to squeeze further concessions from
Madrid, such as improved financing for Catalonia.
However,
Junts’ ability to block the 2025 budget, currently being negotiated, is seen as
a more concrete danger for Sánchez.
“The real
test will be the budget, that is the de facto no-confidence vote for the
Spanish government in the next three months,” Orriols said.
Various
parties have been using the budget as a bargaining chip. The unpredictability
of his allies meant the prime minister was unable to approve the 2024 budget a
year ago.
His former
coalition partner, the far-left Podemos, is also making tough demands in
exchange for its crucial continued support for the coalition’s majority —
including breaking diplomatic ties with Israel and introducing radical housing
rental caps.
These
factors, when taken together, mean the threat of a power collapse in parliament
is substantial.
“Preventing
the approval of the budget for the second time in a row would clearly show that
Pedro Sánchez does not command a parliamentary majority,” Orriols said.
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