EXCLUSIVE
Labour's
growing election threat from Farage's Reform UK
2024 saw
Labour decline in popularity despite the general election win - with the Tories
remaining roughly stable and Reform picking up more support
Hugo Gye
Political
Editor
December 25,
2024 12:00 pm
British
politics enters 2025 in a three-way tie with Reform UK almost even with Labour
and the Conservatives, analysis by the UK’s leading polling expert reveals.
Averages of
all major opinion polls compiled by Sir John Curtice show that Labour’s
popularity has significantly fallen over the course of 2024 despite the party’s
landslide general election victory.
The
Conservatives have remained roughly stable throughout the year, ending it in
the same position as they began.
All the
gains from Labour’s declining position appear to have accrued to smaller
parties, in particular Reform which has seen its popularity increase since the
election in July.
Curtice, a
professor at the University of Strathclyde, warned that Labour’s support from
voters “has fallen away sharply” with a more rapid decline in its popularity
than has ever been seen for a new government – after the party came to power
with a smaller proportion of the vote than any previous majority government.
He
concluded: “Britain’s traditional system of two-party politics now seemingly
faces its biggest threat since the foundation of the SDP in 1981.”
Averages of
the polls for each month of the year, shared with The i Paper, show that from
the start of 2024 until the general election was called in May the two main
parties were fairly stable: Labour attracted 43-45 per cent of the vote and the
Tories were on 23-26 per cent.
Reform’s
popularity was gradually rising but its vote share never exceeded 12 per cent,
only just ahead of the Liberal Democrats.
Once Rishi
Sunak announced that an election would take place on 4 July, Labour’s support
gradually declined to 39 per cent while the Reform share rose to 17 per cent
and the Conservatives dipped as low as 20 per cent.
Following
the actual result, which revealed that just 35 per cent of voters had backed
Labour despite the party taking nearly two-thirds of Commons seats – with the
Tories on 24 per cent and Reform third with 15 per cent – most experts
concluded that the opinion polls had overstated support for Sir Keir Starmer‘s
party.
The number
of polls published each month since the election has significantly declined,
but those which have appeared show a pattern of falling support for Labour with
Reform gaining.
Labour has
been beset by problems in its first months in government. Starmer was forced to
axe his high-profile and controversial chief of staff Sue Gray following a
series of leaks about tensions in Whitehall, culminating in the revelation she
earned more than the Prime Minister.
The
government also made negative headlines for the decision to scrap the winter
fuel payment for millions of pensioners, while Rachel Reeves’s first Budget is
still making headlines for her decision to increase employers’ national
insurance contributions.
On Thursday
the Bank of England suggested the uncertainty over whether this will result in
lower wages or higher prices is hampering its planning for interest rates cuts.
Handout
photo issued by Reform UK of their leader Nigel Farage and Party treasurer Nick
Candy during their meeting on Monday with with Elon Musk at Mar-A-Lago, the
Florida home of US
Reeves was
also under sustained fire for the decision to remove exemptions for inheritance
tax from farmland.
Meanwhile
the world’s richest man, Elon Musk, has taken against Labour, criticising
policies on his X social media platform and meeting with Reform UK leader Nigel
Farage and hinting he may donate as much as $100m to his party.
For
December, the polling averages put Labour on 26 per cent with the Conservatives
on 25 per cent and Reform on 22 per cent, followed by the Lib Dems with 12 per
cent and the Greens on 8 per cent, both marginally better than their showing at
the election.
Curtice
said: “Although the year saw Labour return to power for the first time in 14
years, it did so on just 35 per cent of the vote, the lowest share for any
majority government in Britain’s psephological history.
“The
apparent lack of enthusiasm for the party has then been underlined by the fact
that the party’s support has fallen away sharply during its first months in
office – more so than for any previous newly elected government.
“Meanwhile,
2024 has been the year in which Reform has burst on the political scene –
recording a notable increase in support in the months leading up to the
election, significant progress during the election campaign, and then a further
advance since. As a result, Britain’s traditional system of two-party politics
now seemingly faces its biggest threat since the foundation of the SDP in 1981
– and all eyes will be on how Reform fares in 2025.”
Farage’s
previous party, Ukip, won 13 per cent of the vote in the 2015 general election
but was only able to take one parliamentary consistuency – as opposed to five
for Reform now – and faded away after the next year’s Brexit referendum.
The Tories
have struggled to reach 30 per cent since Liz Truss‘s short-lived premiership
in 2022 set off a dramatic slide in the party’s popularity.
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