Is Le Pen
about to blow up France?
France’s
far-right leader must decide whether to wreck things or play nice — while
keeping the 2027 presidential election firmly in her sights.
December 12,
2024 4:01 am CET
By Clea
Caulcutt
PARIS —
Marine Le Pen has always walked a tightrope between being the outsider, intent
on taking a wrecking ball to the French establishment, and cultivating a more
mainstream image to win sufficiently broad support in the hope of one day
becoming president.
The
political crisis that has gripped France has brought that stark choice into
focus. In one brutal move last week she became the Le Pen of old, the
disruptor-in-chief, pulling the plug on the center-right government and pushing
the country closer to the brink of chaos and financial turmoil.
Now, as the
dust settles, Le Pen must work out whether it was a gamble worth taking or
whether she has undone the years of painstaking work aimed at making herself
electable. And, after blowing up one government, will she fall back in line and
support President Emmanuel Macron’s next prime minister, who could be named as
soon as Friday, or carry on shouting from the sidelines?
In deciding
not to shore up Prime Minister Michel Barnier and his center-right government
over an austere budget aimed at reducing France’s massive deficit, Le Pen
pleased her traditional base. But the move sparked disagreement at the heart of
her far-right National Rally party, one of the three big blocs in a fragmented
French parliament.
“National
Rally officials were very divided about whether they should vote to topple the
government,” said a former far-right official, who was granted anonymity to
protect relationships. “They are scared that they will go back to being a
fringe party.”
For Le Pen
to become president, “she needs the pensioners, people who like stability … and
now they are probably lost,” the official said.
It’s
something her adversaries have already latched onto, gleefully talking up how
Le Pen is back to being the reckless and destructive force that has seen her
win a record number of lawmakers but lose the contest to be president three
times since 2012.
Mindful of
how easily Le Pen could lose the middle ground, Macron slammed her party for
joining the far left in an “anti-Republican front.” Her party was simply
“spawning chaos,” according to one French lawmaker.
It’s a
sudden and dramatic about-turn for Le Pen. For years she’s been trying to
cultivate a more reasonable image, imposing strict discipline on party
officials and taking a zero-tolerance attitude to racism and antisemitism.
But she
remains unmoved. “I don’t gamble, I don’t play at the casino … I take political
decisions,” she said in an interview on Wednesday. “We were faced with an
irresponsible budget, and we tried to be responsible.”
For now,
she’s keeping her options open, dialing down the pressure with assurances that
she will vote in favor of the emergency budget ― yet still warning she could
vote to topple the next government all over again.
But that may
be the easy part. There will be moments when she’ll have to make more decisive
choices, such as whether she supports the next government’s budget for 2025
and, possibly, an immigration bill.
Pressure of
the voters
The 2027
presidential election ― with Macron unable to stand again ― is still firmly in
Le Pen’s sights. Last week’s decision was a calculated choice that has
burnished her image as the anti-establishment force in France, but one that
puts her efforts to widen her appeal on the backburner.
In deciding
not to shore up Prime Minister Michel Barnier and his center-right government
over an austere budget aimed at reducing France’s massive deficit, Le Pen
pleased her traditional base. | Alain Jocard/Getty Images
“I think it
was a difficult decision for her, that goes against her strategy to make the
National Rally more mainstream,” said OpinionWay pollster Bruno Jeanbart. “But
the pressure of the voters was getting too strong.”
“It was more
important for her to secure her core voters than to catch new ones at a time
when a moderate centrist presidential candidate for 2027 hasn’t yet emerged,”
he continued.
In a sense,
Le Pen came tantalizingly close to the respectability she has always craved.
Barnier, the
courteous, conservative elder statesman whom Macron made prime minister in
September, resisted branding Le Pen as far-right, scolded ministers for
critizing her, and acknowledged her influence on discussions about the budget.
But
ultimately she decided that to dance with Barnier would have been the kiss of
death.
“The
strategy to normalize herself has its limits,” said a conservative heavyweight
who knows the National Rally well. “The danger for Marine Le Pen was that
she’ll be branded a ‘politician like any other’” if she was too constructive,
he said ahead of the vote.
Le Pen chose
“the least suicidal” option, according to Sylvain Crépon, an academic and
specialist of the far right. “If the National Rally had not voted to topple the
government, it would have become the party under the government’s thumb, and
they would have lost their protest-vote electorate, who hate Macron,” he said.
With other
opposition parties, such as the Socialist Party, the Greens, the conservative
Les Républicains and the centrists, now negotiating a possible government pact
with Macron, National Rally officials are putting on a brave face despite not
being inside the tent.
One of their
lawmakers, Philippe Ballard, said he was “confident” those talks would backfire
on the mainstream parties and cement the National Rally’s reputation as
France’s No. 1 opposition force.
“The old
left-right pact is emerging, but they will never manage to agree on anything,
whether it’s taxes or security … it all works in our favor,” he said.
The
downside, at least for now, is that they’ve lost influence.
Damage
control
Already
National Rally officials are trying to win back more mainstream voters, arguing
the electorate understood and supported their move to bring down the
government. They are also bending over backwards to take the sting out of Le
Pen’s decision.
According to
conservative lawmaker Pierre-Henri Dumont, Marine Le Pen decided to topple the
government now because it will be harder to stage a showdown with Macron later.
|
In the hours
after the vote, Le Pen solemnly described Barnier’s downfall as “not a
victory.” Far-right lawmakers have generally avoided gloating, and have
promised they will help avert a U.S.-style shutdown for France.
The far
right needs to constantly “reassure,” said a National Rally parliamentary
adviser. “There are analysts who have followed the government’s line in their
desire to scare people.”
But Le Pen’s
intransigeance has also left her vulnerable to another line of attack ― that
she precipitated a crisis to save her skin.
She is,
after all, on trial for embezzling EU funds, and prosecutors have requested
that judges ban her from running for public office. The verdict is due in
March; Le Pen risks losing everything.
If that
request is confirmed, it could destroy her prospects of running in a possible
snap election, or even of running for the presidency in 2027.
According to
conservative lawmaker Pierre-Henri Dumont, who supported Barnier’s government,
Le Pen decided to topple the government now because it will be harder to stage
a showdown with Macron later, when she might be ineligible to run for office.
Some have
even accused Le Pen of trying to accelerate an institutional crisis in an
attempt to force Macron to stand down and hasten the presidential election.
“It would
help her if the presidential election was brought forward,” Crépon said. “But I
don’t think anyone in National Rally’s ranks thinks Emmanuel Macron will resign
in the coming months.”
Despite
flirting with chaos in recent weeks, Le Pen has held to her red lines. Unlike
the far-left firebrand Jean-Luc Mélenchon, she has refused to call for Macron
to stand down, even though it could save her from political oblivion.
“She doesn’t
want to be seen as a putschist, that’s very clear,” the conservative official
said.
Sarah
Paillou contributed to this report, which has been updated.
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