Brussels Playbook: Sánchez goes all-in — Tackling
disinformation — Blocking Hungary
BY JAKOB
HANKE VELA
MAY 30,
2023 7:00 AM CET
Brussels
Playbook
By JAKOB
HANKE VELA
GOOD
MORNING and welcome back to work everyone! For those of you who totally logged
off, let’s start with the big news: Spain’s PM Pedro Sánchez has called for
snap national elections in July — yes, just when Spain takes over the
presidency of the Council of the EU. I’ll have more analysis on that below.
This
morning, ministers in charge of EU affairs will meet in Brussels to discuss
long-standing headaches such as the rule of law and prepare for a leaders’
summit later in June.
In a more
secretive meeting, ministers met for dinner last night at the Sofitel in
Brussels, at the invitation of France’s Laurence Boone and her German
counterpart, Anna Lührmann, attendees told Playbook. During the dinner, say two
participants, ministers exchanged views on EU reform. Playbook’s mole tells me
a French and a German expert shared their assessment on “the institutional
reforms needed” before Ukraine and more countries can join the Union.
The cold
shower: The EU would have to amend its institutional layout to make sure it
could still take decisions after accepting more countries into the Union. Many
countries also believe the EU would have to change the size and distribution of
its budget — particularly its massive agricultural subsidies, of which Ukraine
would otherwise absorb an estimated 25 percent due to its extensive farmland.
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SPAIN’S
ELECTION BOMBSHELL
SÁNCHEZ
SNAP ELECTIONS CALL. WINNERS AND LOSERS: Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez
on Monday called a snap general election after his party took a beating during
Sunday’s municipal and regional elections.
The
decision took even his allies and ministers by surprise — Spain’s Foreign
Minister José Manuel Albares had to dine and dash to get quickly to Madrid and
participate in an extraordinary meeting of the cabinet.
Sánchez is
now betting it all on July 23. In good-old Playbook fashion, here’s a quick
take on the winners and losers of Sánchez’s bombshell decision.
WINNER 1:
PEDRO SÁNCHEZ: The embattled prime minister, who was severely weakened by
Sunday’s poor electoral showing, lives to fight another day. In a move right
out of the political gambler’s handbook, he has prevented six months of further
attrition and turned the snap election into a chance to rally the left.
WINNER 2:
DEMOCRACY: After his party’s major defeat in local and regional elections that
were partly seen as a referendum on his leadership, months of limbo ahead of
the national election beckoned. “Even though [Sunday’s] elections had a
municipal and regional scope, the results send a message that goes beyond
that,” Sánchez said Monday.
In other
words: Voters clearly were sending a message to Madrid, so they should be
allowed to have a say on who sits in the Palace of Moncloa, the PM’s official
office.
LOSER 1:
THE EU: There’s no sugarcoating this, the rotating EU presidency — which Spain
takes over from Sweden in July — was an afterthought in Sánchez’s decision.
“Logistically and politically, having a national election just at the beginning
of a presidency is a recipe for chaos,” said a senior diplomat from another EU
country.
Switch
unlikely: A spokesperson for Sánchez told Playbook that Madrid will carry on
with the presidency as planned, refuting suggestions that Spain could switch
turns with Belgium (which is next in line to take over the presidency).
Bear in
mind: During the presidency, a country is not as much in the EU spotlight as
holding the spotlight. Starting July, Spanish ministers will chair all Council
formations, from agriculture to defense, while their bureaucrats will be in
charge of writing drafts of EU laws and seeking compromises with their EU
colleagues before deciding when to put the laws to a vote.
A change in
government during those crucial six months of the presidency — which countries
spend years preparing for — isn’t unprecedented, but is dreaded by the
officials in charge of those preparations.
What those
officials dread even more? A situation following the July election where the
parties fail to form a government, leading to political standstill.
LOSER 2:
THE RIGHT: The center-right Popular Party (PP) of Alberto Feijóo and the
far-right Vox were banking on their victory Sunday to launch a campaign against
the government’s political legitimacy.
Fear of
far-right in government: Polls show that a majority of Spaniards loathe
extremes and want to prevent a coalition government between the right and the
far-right. Watching the PP form coalitions or governing pacts with Vox in city
halls across the country in the coming weeks is likely to mobilize centrists
and left-wingers.
In other
words, Sánchez may achieve the holy grail (in election campaigning terms) of
“asymmetrical mobilization” by getting out the vote among supporters across the
center and left.
LOSER 3:
SÁNCHEZ’S INTERNAL OPPONENTS: The knives were already out for Sánchez after
Sunday’s major defeat. Rather than accepting an erosion of his party
leadership, he is forcing his comrades to rally around him.
Preventing
a split of the left: Podemos, the socialists’ far-left coalition partner,
suffered a major defeat last Sunday and leaders already were toying with
bringing down the government to distance themselves more from Sánchez’s
center-left policies. Sumar, a new left-wing party led by labor minister
Yolanda Díaz, also risked siphoning votes from Sánchez’s PSOE.
Now, Sumar
and Podemos face a deadline of 10 days to decide whether to form an alliance
for the upcoming election.
MEANWHILE,
HUNGARY’S ORBÁN CONGRATULATES SPANISH FAR-RIGHT’S ‘RECONQUISTA’: The Hungarian
leader tweeted congratulations to far-right party Vox’s leader Santiago Abascal
“on their excellent result at yesterday’s municipal elections,” adding “the
next step: parliamentary elections in July. ¡Vamos, Santiago! ¡Vamos, Vox!”
DISINFORMATION
VS MEDIA FREEDOM
MODERATION
VS CENSORSHIP: COUNTRIES NEGOTIATE MEDIA RULES: National envoys meet today in
Brussels to agree a joint position on an EU law designed to guarantee media
freedom, the EU Media Freedom Act.
Say RT
without saying RT: The Media Freedom Act, in its current draft, contains a
clause that protects all media from obligations for platforms to moderate or
censor content. But there’s a caveat for state actors using bespoke media
outlets to share disinformation.
Background:
Platforms such as YouTube, Twitter and Facebook are obliged to remove factually
wrong or unlawful content. Those obligations are enshrined in the EU’s Digital
Services Act, the obligations of which come into effect in March 2024.
But the
media clause, which Germany endorses, would mean that those platforms cannot
restrict content from media outlets without consulting the affected media
outlet first.
Disinformation
loophole? “The main beneficiary of such a media exemption would be the Kremlin
with its disinformation army, whose bread and butter it is to deceptively pose
as media outlets on online platforms,” Felix Kartte with NGO Reset.Tech told
Playbook. If the media exemption were adopted, Kartte argued, “tech companies
would be forced to leave networks of disinformation outlets” on their
platforms, “even if they push election related conspiracies, health
misinformation or hate” speech.
IN OTHER
NEWS
POSTPONING
HUNGARY’S PRESIDENCY: Momentum is growing to try and prevent Hungary from
taking over the presidency of the Council of the EU as scheduled in July 2024.
Parliamentarians and diplomats who oppose a Hungarian presidency cite PM Viktor
Orbán’s attacks on individual freedoms and the rule of law, penchant for
blocking EU legislation to secure concessions on unrelated files, and reports
of corruption with EU funds.
Nascent
discussions: EU affairs ministers will discuss options to postpone Hungary’s
presidency on the sidelines of today’s general affairs council meeting, two
officials told Playbook. The discussions are at a very early stage and
ministers want to sound out how inclined their colleagues are to take such
action against Budapest, one official added.
EPP backs
action against Budapest: “During these unprecedented times, it is crucial that
the Council is led by a country capable of upholding the strong collaboration
among member states in decision-making, especially on issues such as sanctions
against Russia or support for Ukraine,” Petri Sarvamaa, EPP group spokesman on
budgetary control and issues related to rule of law, told Playbook.
“I have
significant concerns regarding Hungary’s ability to fulfill this role,
especially given that Hungary at the moment is in incompliance with EU law
regarding the rule of law.”
UKRAINE
FOOD CRISIS IN FOCUS: Ukraine’s agricultural minister Mykola Solskyi will
attend today’s Agri Council in Brussels where controversy over the influx of
Ukrainian agri imports will be high on the agenda.
Reminder:
The European Commission reached a compromise with five eastern European
countries after uproar from farmers over what they saw as a flooding of the EU
market. But as part of the deal reached on April 28 to get the easterners on
board, restrictions remained on four products — wheat, maize, rapeseed and
sunflower seed.
Next steps:
Solskyi is expected to argue strongly against the continued restrictions today,
instead making the case for “sustainable solutions” in consultations where
Ukraine has a seat at the table. He’s not the only one unhappy with the
compromise. As previously reported by Playbook, 12 EU countries raised “serious
concerns” in a strongly-worded letter to the Commission earlier this month.
GERMAN
FAR-RIGHT SURGE: The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is on the rise and
has overtaken the Greens as the third-biggest political group in polls, Hans
von der Burchard writes in to report. The AfD now polls at 17 percent, up from
9 percent a year ago, while the Greens have fallen from 23 percent last summer
to 14 percent, POLITICO’s Poll of Polls shows.
Green deal
backlash: The rise of the far-right party, which is gaining on Chancellor Olaf
Scholz’s Social Democrats, which polls at 19 percent, is attributed to migration,
but also to the same reason as the Greens’ decline: A public backlash over
costly climate protection policies.
THE POWER
OF THE PARTIES: Unsure of whether a Spitzenkandidat is a Viennese delicacy or
something vaguely related to politics? Dive into this report by the Jacques
Delors Institute which covers everything you need to know about the state of EU
democracy including the increasingly important role of European Parliament
political groups in shaping the positions of heads of state during European
Council meetings.
NATO
SOLDIERS WOUNDED IN KOSOVO CLASHES: NATO on Monday condemned an attack that
left around 25 troops wounded. Tensions are running high in the region. The
U.S., France, Italy, Germany, and the U.K. issued a joint statement Friday saying
they are “concerned by Serbia’s decision to raise the level of readiness of its
Armed Forces at the border with Kosovo and call all parties for maximum
restraint, avoiding inflammatory rhetoric.” Read more from Lili Bayer.
UBER BEST
FRIENDS: Uber has appointed Emma O’Dwyer — who made a name for herself
negotiating deals with drivers’ unions in the U.K. — to oversee “labor
relations” for all of Europe, the Middle East and Africa, my colleague Pieter
Haeck reports this morning.
O’Dwyer is
one of the architects of a 2021 deal that allowed the U.K.-based union GMB to
negotiate on behalf of 90,000 workers. In an interview with Pieter, O’Dwyer
explained the new approach. She’s now on WhatsApp with the top driver
representatives in London to gain daily feedback. Uber is keen to extend this
model to other parts of Europe, she suggested. Pro Technology subscribers can
read the full story by Pieter here.
TRANSATLANTIC
RELATIONSHIP GOES SCANDI NOIR: The people of Luleå, Sweden won’t know what’s
hit them. The small industrial town on the edge of the Arctic Circle will today
serve as the venue for a two-day summit of the EU-U.S. Trade and Tech Council,
the two-year effort to revamp the relationship between Brussels and Washington
following the Donald Trump era.
Swedish
Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson will host U.S. Secretary of State Antony
Blinken, as well as Commission Executive Vice Presidents Valdis Dombrovskis and
Margrethe Vestager. Also there will be Gina Raimondo and Katherine Tai, the
U.S. secretary of commerce and U.S. trade representative, respectively.
What’s it
all about? You don’t have to wait for the official communiqué tomorrow.
POLITICO’s Mark Scott has a sneak peek: Expect announcements related to
artificial intelligence, sustainable trade, and electric vehicles and
telecommunications standards. There are wins for Washington (on Brussels
adopting some of its AI tools), and for the European Union (on the U.S. backing
some of its new rules targeting online platforms). But EU and U.S. officials
talked down the prospect of any earth-shattering announcements.
RAIDS ON
UKRAINE: For a third night running, Russia targeted Kyiv overnight. Ukrainian
defense forces said they shot down more than 20 drones during the latest wave
of air attacks. One person was reported killed.
CENTRAL
BANKING BONANZA: The European Central Bank is turning 25 — and POLITICO is
launching our brand new Central Banker Pro vertical! For those nostalgic for
the past 25 years, Johanna Treeck looks back at the 25 most exciting moments at
the ECB.
And for
those who just can’t get enough, we’re holding a Twitter Space to discuss how
central banking has taken a political hammering in recent years. We’ll be
joined by special guests including former Pimco boss Mohamed A. El-Erian, the
Peterson Institute for International Economics’ Nicolas Véron, and global
liquidity plumbing expert James Aitken. Our Editor-in-Chief Jamil Anderlini
will give you the down-low on what’s to come from our new vertical, before our
host, Senior Finance Editor Izabella Kaminska, takes the mic. Join us here at 3
p.m. CET
**POLITICO
Pro Central Banker makes sense of the structural transformation of monetary
policy in Europe. Start your free trial of Morning Central Banker, the daily
newsletter of our brand-new policy coverage service, today! Click here.**
AGENDA
— General
Affairs Council. Arrivals at 8:45 a.m. … session at 10 a.m. … press conference
at 5 p.m. (approximately). Watch.
—
Agriculture and Fisheries Council at 8:45 a.m. … session at 10 a.m. … press
conference at 5:55 p.m. (approximately). Watch.
— Ceremony
marking the 10th anniversary of the Emergency Response Coordination Centre
(ERCC) and strengthened rescue firefighting aircraft. Press point with
Commissioner Janez Lenarčič at 1 p.m. Watch.
— European
Commission President Ursula von der Leyen receives Chairman of the World
Economic Forum Klaus Schwab … receives MEP Daniel Caspary.
— European
Council President Charles Michel meets Schwab at 10:45 a.m.
— European
Parliament President Roberta Metsola will be in Bratislava, Slovakia to meet
interim Prime Minster Ľudovít Ódor at 9:45 a.m. She’ll then return to Brussels
to meet Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs of the
Netherlands Wopke Hoekstra at 3 p.m., and Schwab at 3:30 p.m.
— HRVP
Josep Borrell receives President of Montenegro Jakov Milatović … doorstep at
12:30 p.m. (Watch) … Receives Minister for Foreign Affairs of Indonesia Retno
Marsudi … Receives Minister for Foreign Affairs of Malaysia Zambry Abd Kadir …
participates in a conversation on ‘Global Digital Governance.’
—
Commission Vice President Věra Jourová speaks via video conference at the
Warsaw European Conversation conference, ‘Europe in times of non-peace: risks
and trends.’
—
Commission Vice President Margaritis Schinas participates in the Commission’s
Sports & Innovation Summit in Brussels.
—
Commissioner Jutta Urpilainen visits New York, to hold meetings with UN
Secretary-General António Guterres and Deputy Secretary-General Amina Mohammed.
—
Commissioner Virginijus Sinkevičius receives Spain’s Minister for Agriculture
Luis Planas.
—
Commissioner Mairead McGuinness meets with representatives of the National Farm
Business Committee of the Irish Farmers’ Association (IFA).
BRUSSELS
CORNER
BERLIN-BRUSSELS
EXPRESS: The first new European Sleeper train between Brussels and Berlin
departed last week — and POLITICO’s Cristina Gonzales and Joshua Posaner were
among its passengers. Can we expect a revival of the overnight rail lines that
once linked the Continent’s cities before the age of discount airlines? Read
the full story from Hanne Cokelaere and Joshua here.
HOSPITAL
STRIKE: Staff at the Brussels Iris Hospitals — a network of hospitals in
Brussels — will strike today to demand better working conditions and more resources.
They will gather at 7:30 a.m. to march to Place De Brouckère at 10 a.m. and
continue to the office of city Health Minister Alain Maron. As a result, the
affected hospitals — CHU Brugmann, CHU Saint-Pierre, Iris Hospitals South,
child hospital HUDERF and Institut Jules Bordet — will be operating with
reduced service.
NEW JOB:
Theodore Pelagidis, deputy governor of the Bank of Greece, was appointed as
minister of finance of Greece’s interim government until new national elections
on June 25.
BIRTHDAYS:
Slovakia’s Permanent Representative to the EU, Ambassador Petra Vargová;
Finnish politician Timo Soini; MLex’s Fiona Maxwell; Journalist David Shukman;
Former Chief Rabbi of France Gilles Bernheim; VeloNews’ AndrewHood; Scientist
and writer Sheila Ali-Oston; Christian Skrivervik of the European Movement
International.
THANKS to
Suzanne Lynch, Mark Scott, Hans von der Burchard, Lili Bayer, Nicholas Vinocur,
Playbook reporter Ketrin Jochecová and editor Joe Stanley-Smith.
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