What’s behind Germany’s rising Covid infection
rates?
The Local
news@thelocal.de
@thelocalgermany
23 July
2021
13:18 CEST
With the
rising number of Covid cases in Germany, we looked at who is being infected
most, and other contributing factors.
Which age
group is seeing the highest number of Covid cases?
Not
surprisingly, young people are seeing the most amount of Covid cases in Germany
right now, as most of public life has opened up across the country.
The highest
incidence in age groups – 32 cases per 100,000 residents in seven days (7-day
incidence) – is among young people aged between 15 and 24, the Robert Koch
Institute (RKI) said in its latest report.
People in
these age groups tend to rarely see severe effects from Covid-19. Vaccination
rates in people younger than 60 are also much lower than among those older than
60.
In the
older age groups, fewer than five cases per 100,000 population have been
recorded within seven days.
What’s the
overall picture?
The 7-day
incidence has been rising for more than two weeks. On Friday, the RKI reported
13.2 infections per 100,000 people within a seven-day period nationwide. On the
previous day, the incidence was 12.2 cases per 100,000 – and the most recent
low on July 6th was 4.9.
On Friday,
2,089 Covid cases were reported within 24 hours. A week ago there were 1,456
infections within this time period. A
total of 34 Covid deaths were recorded in the last 24 hours.
“Due to the
still low overall incidence, the health authorities are able to trace many
infection chains,” said the RKI.
The highest
incidences among the 16 federal states are Berlin (with 21.8 cases per 100,000
residents), Hamburg (18.5 cases per 100,000) and Saarland (19.3 cases), as the
tweet below by German data journalist Olaf Gersemann points out.
The lowest
7-day incidences per 100,000 people are in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania (3
cases), Saxony (5.3 cases) and Thuringia (4.8 cases).
For
districts, Solingen in North Rhine-Westphalia, Kaiserslautern in
Rhineland-Palatinate, and Berlin’s Friedrichshain have the highest 7-day
incidences
Is travel
having an impact?
Yes, it’s
becoming more of a contributing factor to the spread, according to experts.
The RKI
said more cases are being reported by those exposed to the virus abroad. The
most common country at present where people are getting Covid is Spain. The
popular vacation destination has a significantly higher number of Covid
infections than Germany.
What’s
happening in hospitals?
So far in
the pandemic, the 7-day incidence has been the most important factor when
deciding Covid restrictions, whether it’s stricter contact rules or closures.
But now due
to risk groups being having more protection because of vaccinations, Germany is
looking at other factors such as hospital data in more detail. Since mid-June,
hospitals have been asked to report more data so the overall situation can be
evaluated better.
The RKI
said that the trend in the decline in the number of patients in hospitals and
intensive care units is not continuing – and hospitalisations are going up.
However, the numbers are still at a low level.
According
to the latest report, by Germany’s intensive care register (DIVI), there are
around 357 Covid-19 patients in hospitals across Germany, with 207 (58 percent)
receiving ventilation treatment.
During
peaks of the pandemic – such as October last year and January this year – more than
5,000 Covid patients were hospitalised in Germany.
What about
variants?
The Delta
variant, first discovered in India has been dominant in Germany for a few weeks
now. In a randomly selected sample for analyses, its share in new Covid cases
in Germany was 84 percent, said the RKI. This is a further increase compared to
the previous week, when the proportion had been around two-thirds.
Germany has
been watching countries, such as the UK closely. It has seen massive spikes in
Covid cases fuelled by the more transmissible Delta variant.
Other
European countries are seeing a similar trend, as shown in the chart below by
Our World in Data.
The “vast
majority” of Covid-19 cases recorded since February 1st have been among people
who are not vaccinated against the virus, the report said.
According
to the RKI’s estimates, vaccine effectiveness for the period from early
February to July 11th is about 89 percent for people aged 18 to 59, and about
87 percent for people aged 60 and older.
However,
since the beginning of February a total of 6,125 so-called “vaccination
breakthroughs” (Impfdurchbrüche) – infections in people who are already
vaccinated – have been recorded, the RKI says.
These cases
are mostly mild infections. And the RKI says they are rare compared to the
number of fully vaccinated people, of which there are currently about 40
million people in Germany.
Of those
affected over the age of 60, about a quarter of people had to go to hospital,
according to the RKI.
What should
people in Germany do?
Get
vaccinated as soon as possible, say the experts.
The RKI
said the health risk to unvaccinated people or those who’ve had just one jab
“remains high”.
“For those
who have been fully vaccinated the risk to health is moderate.” they said.
The RKI
urged people to continue following mask and distance rules and to “avoid
situations in which so-called super-spreading events can occur as far as
possible”.
“It is also
strongly recommended to take advantage now of offers for vaccination against
Covid-19,” advised the RKI.
As the
number of vaccinations being administered in Germany has slowed down in recent
weeks, experts are urging authorities to get vaccines out to people.
High
profile virologist Christian Drosten said he is “increasingly concerned about
the progress of vaccination”.
“Here, we
are not progressing fast enough, even though there is enough vaccine
available,” said the virologist.
Drosten
said many people have a false sense of security in light of the low incidence
rates in Germany.
“It is
important to work to educate (people) now – also in our private lives – so that
the vaccination rate increases more quickly,” he said.
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