Why
Meloni has hit back hard against Trump and his ‘made up’ photo claim
Riccardo
Alcaro
With her
popularity flagging and a general election looming, the Italian PM sees a
strategic advantage in the rupture
Wed 1 Jul
2026 06.00 CEST
If
Giorgia Meloni thought that she could put her April spat with Donald Trump over
the pope’s criticism of the US war on Iran behind her, she had not banked on
the US president’s capacity to bear a grudge.
Trump
reignited tensions by telling an Italian TV journalist that the Italian PM had
“begged” him for a picture at the recent G7 meeting in France. The Spanish
newspaper El País suggested that Trump’s feathers had been ruffled by a video
at the same meeting, showing Meloni appearing to scold him. In any case he
doubled down on his tale in a Truth Social post, adding that Meloni wanted the
photo to boost her flagging approval ratings, which he blamed on her failure to
support the US in the Iran war.
Trump’s
line of attack is hardly surprising, but Meloni’s forceful response is. In a
social media video, she said Trump’s claim about the picture was “made up”. She
expressed puzzlement at the US president apparently treating his allies worse
than his adversaries. Fusing personal and national pride in a single retort,
she concluded: “I do not beg, nor does Italy.”
In a
subsequent Instagram post , she insisted that her supposed slide in popularity
had nothing to do with the US – although in an acerbic jibe, she added that
being friends with Trump was not helping. Meanwhile, Antonio Tajani, Meloni’s
foreign minister, cancelled plans to attend a US-Italian business forum in
Miami.
It is
hard to know if this rift is real or performative. In Trump’s eyes, Meloni’s
sin appears to be one of lèse-majesté – specifically, failing to show the due
deference of a subordinate to her boss. For Meloni, the clash is a matter of
substance, namely Trump’s inability to appreciate the value of the western
alliance.
Yet
Trump’s hostility to Europe is not exactly breaking news. In fact, on every
previous occasion on which Trump has opened a new front – from tariffs to the
quasi-abandonment of Ukraine to threats against Greenland – Meloni has been
conspicuous by her silence. Even on Iran, ostensibly the immediate cause of
Trump’s discontent, it took weeks for Meloni to shift from a position of
“neither support nor condemnation” to distancing Italy more clearly from the
war. Even now, the Italian government is working with the US administration to
patch things up: Tajani has confirmed his attendance at Thursday’s celebration
of the 250th anniversary of American independence at the Rome residence of the
US ambassador, who has also offered conciliatory words. The hope is that the
relationship suffers no further damage. What seems clear is that the personal
bond between Trump and Meloni is almost ruined. But that is not necessarily a
net loss for the Italian premier.
Meloni
may be genuinely concerned about Trump’s Europe policy, but the root of the
rift is less geopolitical strategy than strategic electioneering at home.
Although
he exaggerates them, Trump is not wrong when he speaks of Meloni’s popularity
problems. In a March referendum, voters roundly rejected a judicial reform
package she championed. Despite the lingering differences between Italy’s main
opposition forces, the centre-left Democratic party (PD) and the
anti-establishment Five Star Movement (M5S), they are set to forge an alliance
ahead of the next general election, due by 2027 at the latest. And National
Future, a newly formed force led by Roberto Vannacci, a former general turned
firebrand hard-right demagogue, has gained support at the expense of Meloni’s
three-party governing coalition. According to polls, the coalition is set for
defeat in the elections.
But
publicly clashing with Trump, who is deeply unpopular in Italy, carries
electoral advantages. On her left, it deprives the opposition of a major line
of attack over Meloni’s previous closeness to Trump. On her right, it forces
the National Future on to terrain that Meloni now strives to dominate: a
nationalist conservative narrative rooted in tropes about western civilisation
that also rejects subservience to the US.
She
hopes, too, to strengthen her position within the European right. Distancing
herself from Trump serves Meloni’s goal of drawing a sharp line between herself
and pariahs such as one of her former allies, the pro-Trump Viktor Orbán. She
would rather align now with the French National Rally, whose presidential
candidate, Jordan Bardella, could become Europe’s foremost nationalist leader
if he wins next year’s presidential election.
The
solidarity expressed with Meloni across the Italian political spectrum
(Vannacci included) and by European leaders over Trump’s efforts to humiliate
her validates her political instincts. Whether those instincts are enough to
win her re-election is another matter. Aware of this, Meloni is pushing for
changes to the electoral law that would give bonus seats to the winning
coalition, compel parties not already sitting in parliament such as Vannacci’s
to collect 500,000 signatures and force coalitions to name their candidate for
the premiership in advance. In one stroke, Meloni would drive a wedge between
the opposition parties, with both the PD and M5S leaders, Elly Schlein and
Giuseppe Conte, coveting the premiership, and either exclude Vannacci or force
him to join her coalition on her terms.
The
electoral reform, which the opposition has denounced as a semi-authoritarian
power grab, is under review in parliament. Its approval will mark the
unofficial start of the election campaign. Lacking major policy successes or
legislative achievements, Meloni will confidently insist she has remained
truthful to her conservative principles while also ensuring political
stability. Ideological coherence is harder to claim, however, after
flip-flopping on what was previously presented as the strategic wisdom of
political closeness to Trump. And when stability is pursued through last-minute
changes to the electoral rules, confidence begins to look more like performance
than conviction. Meloni can only hope that voters don’t care about the
difference.
Riccardo
Alcaro is head of research at IAI, Istituto Affari Internazionali in Rome
.jpeg)
Sem comentários:
Enviar um comentário