Trio of
Spanish regional elections spells trouble for Sánchez
First up
on Sunday is Aragón, nicknamed the “Spanish Ohio” as it tends to predict which
way national politics are heading.
February
5, 2026 4:01 am CET
By Guy
Hedgecoe
MADRID —
Spain’s conservatives hope a trio of impending regional elections will collapse
the government of Socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, the EU’s only
remaining heavyweight national leader from the center left.
First up
this Sunday is the northeastern region of Aragón, dubbed the “Spanish Ohio”
thanks to its track record as a barometer of the national mood. The
center-right People’s Party (PP) appears to be heading for victory, but a
surging far right is likely to make the biggest gains.
Aragón
will be followed by two more elections in PP-held regions — Castilla y León in
March and Andalusia in June. For the conservatives, the goal is to seize on the
corruption scandals in the Socialist party, which have severely weakened
Sánchez, to confirm the PP’s regional dominance and dial up pressure on the
government in Madrid.
Speaking
to supporters on the campaign trail in the town of Calatayud, Alberto Núñez
Feijóo, leader of the PP, called on Aragón’s voters “to be the spokespeople of
all Spaniards on Sunday at the ballot box.”
“Friends,
vote to stop the lies, to stop the corruption, to stop the arrogance and to
stop the discredit into which national politics has fallen,” he said.
Oriol
Bartomeus, a political scientist at Barcelona’s Autonomous University, said the
key across these regional elections was to build momentum at the national
level.
“The
[PP’s] intention is to convert all these elections into a national story,” he
said. “If the PP wins and the Socialists suffer a bad defeat, that will be used
to say that Sánchez must step down because his party is in freefall.”
Piling on
the pressure
Sánchez’s
coalition is already on the ropes following a storm of scandals.
Probes
into a kickback scheme implicating two former senior Socialists, as well as
sexual harassment allegations concerning other figures in the party, have been
hogging headlines in recent months. An ongoing investigation into the business
dealings of Sánchez’s wife and the upcoming trial of his brother on charges of
influence peddling have given the opposition further ammunition.
Meanwhile,
two January train crashes that killed a combined 47 people and triggered rail
chaos in some parts of Spain have added to the government’s woes.
A ballot
held in the western region of Extremadura in December handed the PP electoral
momentum: The party made modest gains while the Socialists lost 10 of their 28
seats.
The
Aragón election is a snap ballot called by regional president Jorge Azcón amid
a parliamentary impasse that followed a decision by the far-right Vox to
withdraw support for the conservatives.
Polls
suggest Aragón is heading for a similar result to Extremadura, with the PP
clearly ahead and possibly making slight gains. The Socialists, meanwhile, are
left hoping to avoid their worst-ever result in the region. Polls have the PP
on track to win about 28 seats in the 67-seat assembly, with Vox taking 12 to
14 and the Socialists 17 or 18.
In every
general election since the country’s return to democracy in 1977, the winning
party in Aragón has been the national overall victor, earning it the “Spanish
Ohio” nickname — although analysts say its capital Zaragoza and the province
that surrounds it currently provide a more reliable measure of the national
vote.
With a
surface area slightly greater than that of Switzerland, the region borders
Catalonia to the east and France to the north, encompassing vast rural areas.
But it has also developed a reputation as a technological hub, and Zaragoza is
Spain’s fifth-largest city.
Warnings
about Vox
The
Socialists have also given the election a national dimension by deploying the
former minister of education, training and sport, Pilar Alegría, as their
candidate.
The
warning from the Socialists is that Vox — which triggered the regional election
in a clash with the PP over the acceptance of unaccompanied migrant children —
could still ultimately agree to form a majority with the PP after extracting
concessions.
Prime
Minister Sánchez has campaigned alongside Alegría, urging voters to mobilize
against the prospect of a consolidated PP-Vox majority, which he casts as part
of an international radical right-wing tide.
“The
question we have to ask ourselves here in Aragón is: What you don’t want for
the rest of the world, do you want that for Europe, for Spain and for Aragón?”
the prime minister said at a campaign rally in the city of Teruel. He condemned
the “misogyny and hate” of Vox, which he warned could form part of a coalition
with the PP if they secured a majority.
Tomás
Guitarte, the leading candidate for Aragón Exists, which seeks to represent
voters in rural areas, said such debates have distracted from more pressing
concerns.
“Sixty
percent of the population of Aragón lives in two percent of its territory,
while the rest are suffering serious problems related to depopulation,” he told
POLITICO.
“They
should be talking about this but instead the national leaders come here and
turn the campaign into a national debate, focused on what concerns them in
Madrid more than the real concerns of Aragón,” he said.
Guitarte
also pointed to housing as a serious concern for voters. Describing itself as
cutting across party lines, Aragón Existe presents itself as a potential
coalition partner for the PP, which is unlikely to secure an outright majority.
However,
Vox is likely to be the PP’s only viable partner and the one set to make the
most substantial gains. The national conservative party has been courting the
region’s farming sector with attacks on EU agricultural policy while condemning
the central government’s willingness to welcome migrants. Polls show Vox could
come close to doubling its seven seats, echoing its strong performance in
national polls.
Bartomeus
said the PP was struggling to fend off the electoral threat posed by Vox, which
divides the right.
“The more
Vox’s support increases, the worse the PP will perform,” he said. “The PP
doesn’t go up substantially because part of its voter base is going to Vox.”
Political
analysts don’t generally believe the Aragón result alone could force Sánchez to
bring forward the general election, scheduled for 2027. But the cumulative
effect of defeats there, in Castilla y León and, above all, in the former
Socialist stronghold of Andalusia could make it very hard for Sánchez to hang
on.
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