Poll:
Far-right candidate breaks through in Paris mayor race
A survey
shared with POLITICO shows Reconquest MEP Sarah Knafo advancing to the
contest’s second round.
February
3, 2026 4:00 am CET
By Clea
Caulcutt, Anthony Lattier and Alexandre Léchenet
PARIS —
Anti-immigration MEP Sarah Knafo of the Reconquest party is set to advance to
the second round of the Paris mayoral election in what would be a historic
first for a far-right candidate, according to new polling shared with POLITICO.
The
survey from Cluster17, a prominent French pollster, shows Knafo, who formally
entered the race in January, winning 10 percent of the vote in the municipal
election next month.
The data
suggests her campaign is building traction — a surprise in a city where the far
right has always struggled — as she was on course to win only 6 percent in
December.
Reconquest
is the party founded by Knafo’s partner, maverick far-right politician and
commentator Éric Zemmour, who came fourth in the first round of the 2022
presidential election.
Candidates
who meet the 10 percent support threshold in the first round on March 15
advance to the runoff and earn representation on the city council. As it
stands, that would see an unprecedented five-way race in the second round on
March 22.
Socialist
candidate Emmanuel Grégoire leads the race with 33 percent of the vote,
according to the poll. He’s followed by Rachida Dati, the conservative culture
minister, at 26 percent. Centrist Pierre-Yves Bournazel scored 14 percent,
while Sophia Chikirou of the hard-left France Unbowed drew 12 percent.
Knafo’s
platform includes several radical proposals such as halving the number of
public workers in Paris and rowing back on some of current Mayor Anne Hidalgo’s
signature policies, including reducing the speed limit on the Paris ring road.
Hidalgo also banished cars from the banks of the Seine River, but Knafo wants
instead to build a two-story passageway on the banks, with cars traveling
underground and pedestrians above.
Grégoire
and Dati are clear front-runners in the race, but both have incentives to forge
an alliance with candidates on their political extremes between the first and
second rounds.
Jean-Yves
Dormagen, president and founder of Cluster17, warned that Dati is “caught in a
pincer movement” between Knafo to her right and Bournazel in the center.
“Dati
doesn’t have a good campaign dynamic,” Dormagen said.
Despite
Grégoire facing a similar risk of being outflanked by Chikirou to his left, the
Socialist candidate’s strong polling with voters from multicultural backgrounds
— a “decisive group” in Paris — gives him a boost, the pollster said.
“It’s a
real problem for Sophia Chikirou,” said Dormagen.
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