A 2025 survey suggested over 45% of voters believe a future civil war is possible, with experts noting a shift toward decentralized, targeted violence

While a traditional, 1860s-style Civil War is considered highly unlikely by experts, the U.S. is experiencing intense polarization, rising political instability, and increased risks of localized political violence. A 2025 survey suggested over 45% of voters believe a future civil war is possible, with experts noting a shift toward decentralized, targeted violence.

 

Key Factors and Perspectives:

• Expert Consensus: CSIS researchers argue a large-scale, prolonged, organized conflict is unlikely, but political violence and mass civil unrest are increasing, notes The Walrus.
• Risk Indicators: Factors fueling concern include deep political polarization, the rise of anti-government militias, and a decline in trust in institutions.
• Modern Conflict Form: Analysts predict that if violence escalates, it will not involve conventional army battles but rather a more decentralized, guerrilla-style approach targeting civilians or specific officials.
• Escalation Markers: Ray Dalio warns that extreme debt, income inequality, and , political clashes could lead to a, serious, conflict, notes Fortune.
• While many, polls indicate Americans fear a, civil war,, the nation is currently in a state of high tension rather than imminent, armed rebellion.