Trump’s Two Minds on China Sow a Chaotic Few Days

 

News Analysis

Trump’s Two Minds on China Sow a Chaotic Few Days

 

The president’s bellicose vow of steep new tariffs, followed quickly by a more conciliatory message, pointed to an internal tug of war over his approach.

 

Zolan Kanno-Youngs

By Zolan Kanno-Youngs

Reporting from Washington

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/13/us/politics/trump-china-tariffs.html

Oct. 13, 2025

 

Just days ago, President Trump indicated his trade war with China was entering a more belligerent phase. China’s new, “unheard of” controls on rare earth minerals were “sinister and hostile” and a “moral disgrace,” he fumed, vowing to hit back with 100 percent tariffs on all products from China.

 

“The rest is History,” he said in a social media post.

 

Just 48 hours later, Mr. Trump appeared eager to rewrite that history.

 

President Xi Jinping of China was only having a “bad moment,” Mr. Trump said on social media on Sunday. “Don’t worry about China, it will all be fine!” He reassured his followers that the United States “wants to help China, not hurt it!!!”

 

The dueling messages appeared to provide a window into an internal tug of war for Mr. Trump over the best way to approach China on trade issues. He has repeatedly seesawed between retaliation and reconciliation, rattling markets, sending businesses scrambling and leaving questions about whether he has a larger strategy.

 

At times, Mr. Trump has taken steps to “decouple” the United States from China, threatening severe tariffs, moving to suspend sales of critical technology and even revoking the visas of Chinese students. But with a potential meeting with Mr. Xi expected this month, Mr. Trump and his aides have also struck a conciliatory tone in hopes of reaching a trade agreement and cementing Mr. Trump’s self-described role as a master deal maker.

 

Both approaches were on display in recent days.

 

Markets in the United States plunged on Friday amid Mr. Trump’s threats, and then rebounded some on Monday as he seemed to back off. Stocks in Asia, which had closed for the week before Mr. Trump’s bellicose turn, fell on Monday amid fears of an intensified trade war.

 

Mr. Trump most likely saw China’s curbs on rare earth minerals, which tighten its grip over global manufacturing, as a personal slight, particularly after the two sides agreed to defuse tensions and scale back tariffs in the spring, said Josh Lipsky, the senior director of the Atlantic Council GeoEconomics Center, a think tank.

 

At the same time, the administration wants to keep a summit with Mr. Xi, and a broader trade agreement, on the table, particularly as American farmers begin to feel the trade war’s toll. Mr. Trump raised the possibility on Friday of canceling the meeting, a threat his Treasury secretary backpedaled on Monday.

 

China has halted purchases of American farm products such as soybeans, using U.S. growers to gain leverage in the talks.

 

“We know the pressure the administration’s facing on that front,” Mr. Lipsky said. “So it’s competing priorities, and at any given moment one might win out.”

 

Craig Singleton, senior China fellow at the nonpartisan Foundation for Defense of Democracies in Washington, said Mr. Trump most likely had two different audiences in mind.

 

“The initial threats were meant to show resolve and punish Beijing’s overreach; the softer tone since is aimed at calming markets and reassuring allies,” Mr. Singleton said. “Trump and his team seem to believe Beijing miscalculated — and they’re leaving room for Xi to walk it back without escalating further.”

 

White House officials did not respond to questions about what prompted Mr. Trump and his aides to change their tone over the weekend.

 

Rare earth minerals are crucial for making an array of products including motors, brakes, semiconductors and fighter jets. China controls much of the world’s supply, and the minerals have become one of the more pressing sticking points between U.S. and Chinese negotiators.

 

China’s new restrictions would require companies anywhere in the world to obtain licenses if they were exporting products containing even a minimal amount of Chinese-produced rare earths minerals, including for chip manufacturing. Those exports would also be controlled if the minerals were produced using Chinese mining, processing or magnet-making technologies. Companies with any affiliation to foreign militaries would be denied licenses.

 

The restrictions came after the Trump administration took steps to expand its global technology restrictions, and Chinese officials have accused the administration of undermining progress between the two nations.

 

On Sunday, the Chinese Commerce Ministry pointed to the U.S. Commerce Department’s expansion of the companies subject to sanctions when included on a government “entity list,” a move that would affect many Chinese and Russian firms.

 

“It’s pretty clear to me that China does not put out the new rare earth restrictions in the absence of the commerce rule,” Mr. Lipsky said. “We had what I would call a kind of temporary truce between the sides over the summer, where neither side wanted to escalate in advance of the two leaders meeting. That was pretty clear on all sides. And the commerce rule was seen by the Chinese as a violation of that, just as what China did on rare earths was seen by the U.S. as a violation.”

 

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent tried to calm markets on Monday, saying on the Fox Business Network that Mr. Trump and Mr. Xi could work out their differences before the Nov. 1 deadline that Mr. Trump set for his 100 percent tariffs.

 

Mr. Bessent said that the Trump administration was working to find a way to stabilize the finances of farmers.

 

“The Chinese have unfortunately turned our soybean farmers into pawns,” Mr. Bessent said. “They’re trying to manipulate them, and our farmers overwhelmingly back President Trump.”

 

Vice President JD Vance also appeared to leave a door open to a deal with China during an appearance on Fox News on Sunday. Mr. Vance reiterated that Mr. Trump appreciated the friendship he had developed with Mr. Xi.

 

But he also warned China not to “respond in an aggressive manner.”

 

“I guarantee you the president of the United States has far more cards than the People’s Republic of China,” Mr. Vance said.

 

Whether the administration will have the same leverage in the months to come is uncertain. Mr. Vance noted that the Supreme Court was scheduled to hear arguments over the administration’s use of emergency authorities to impose tariffs.

 

“Unless we have access to this tariff authority, it’s going to be very hard to negotiate with China,” Mr. Vance said.

 

Alan Rappeport and Gillian Wong contributed reporting.

 

Zolan Kanno-Youngs is a White House correspondent for The Times, covering President Trump and his administration.