Once
Banished From Trump’s White House, Zelensky Has New Hope
In his
zigzagging approach to ending the war in Ukraine, President Trump has shifted
his frustration — for now — from Ukraine’s leader to Vladimir Putin.
Michael
Crowley
By Michael
Crowley
Reporting
from Washington
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/01/us/politics/trump-ukraine-russia-zelensky.html
May 1, 2025
Feb. 28 was
one of the darkest days for Ukraine since Russia’s invasion three years
earlier. An Oval Office visit by President Volodymyr Zelensky meant to win
favor with President Trump turned into a televised shouting match, prompting
Mr. Trump to banish his guest from the White House without even serving him a
planned lunch.
Mr. Trump
was already a deep skeptic of U.S. support for Ukraine. But after the
disastrous meeting with Mr. Zelensky, he accelerated his diplomacy with
President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, drafting a peace plan to end the war in
Ukraine that offered major concessions to Moscow. Ukraine’s supporters were in
panic.
But there is
new hope in Kyiv.
A day after
the Trump administration announced an economic deal with Ukraine that gives the
United States a stake in its future mineral revenues, analysts say the
country’s prospects look brighter than they have in months.
“These are
very good signs that something might be shifting,” said Alina Polyakova, the
president and chief executive of the Center for European Policy Analysis.
“It does
seem like there’s change from the previous approach” by the Trump
administration, she said, calling the minerals deal “a win-win for both sides”
that Ukraine negotiated “very savvily.”
Mr. Trump
and Mr. Zelensky also appeared to have a friendly meeting on Saturday at the
Vatican, as Mr. Trump has grown increasingly frustrated with Mr. Putin’s
demands in the separate talks to settle the war.
Analysts
cautioned against drawing firm conclusions about Mr. Trump’s intentions toward
Ukraine, however. The president’s zigzagging approach has confounded observers
as he veers between tactics and shifts blame from one side to another and back
again.
Adding to
the confusion are sharp differences among Mr. Trump’s aides and advisers about
the right approach. Mr. Trump’s special envoy, Steve Witkoff, who has met with
Mr. Putin four times, speaks in terms sympathetic to — and sometimes in close
harmony with — Kremlin talking points. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, by
contrast, was a vociferous critic of Mr. Putin during his Senate tenure and has
struck a more skeptical tone.
The chaotic
approach underscores the folly of Mr. Trump’s claim as a candidate last year
that he could somehow settle the conflict in just 24 hours. This week he
reached 100 days in office without even a temporary cease-fire to show for his
persistent efforts — a subject of obvious irritation for Mr. Trump.
“The
president tends to want to get results quickly, and this has been a very
frustrating process,” Ms. Polyakova said.
At the
moment, Mr. Trump’s frustration appears to have shifted from Mr. Zelensky to
Mr. Putin.
The Russian
leader has welcomed Mr. Trump’s diplomacy and talk of a transformed U.S.-Russia
relationship. But on the matter of ending the war he began, Mr. Putin has
dragged his feet. Many analysts say Mr. Putin believes he has the upper hand in
the conflict and has little motivation to end the fighting without even more
concessions than Mr. Trump has offered him.
Mr. Putin
may also have banked on Mr. Trump’s long — and in many ways continuing — record
of giving him what he wants.
But Mr.
Putin may be testing the limits of that strategy. In recent weeks Mr. Trump has
leveled sharp criticism at a Russian leader he has sometimes contorted himself
to avoid offending. “Vladimir, STOP!” Mr. Trump wrote on social media last week
after a particularly deadly Russian missile attack on Kyiv. “Let’s get the
Peace Deal DONE!”
Now Mr.
Trump faces critical decision points that could help decide Ukraine’s fate. His
choices are especially hard, analysts say, because Mr. Trump’s desire for a
quick peace is in tension with his innate mistrust of Mr. Zelensky and his
admiration for Mr. Putin.
The first
big choice Mr. Trump faces is whether to challenge Mr. Putin. The Russian
leader’s demands for a peace agreement include things that Mr. Zelensky could
never sell to his people, such as recognition of Russian control over five
occupied Ukrainian regions and an end to Western military support for Ukraine.
While Mr. Trump has shown a willingness to make big concessions to Mr. Putin,
including by recognizing Russian control over the Crimean Peninsula that Moscow
forcibly annexed in 2014, he has indicated that Mr. Putin is asking too much.
After
another recent Russian missile barrage into civilian areas, Mr. Trump wrote on
social media on Saturday of Mr. Putin that “maybe he doesn’t want to stop the
war, he’s just tapping me along, and has to be dealt with differently.”
Mr. Trump
even threatened to escalate U.S. economic pressure on Russia, including by
introducing “secondary” sanctions that would penalize countries that trade with
Moscow. (Targets could include China and India, which have increased their
purchases of Russian oil in recent years.)
Mr. Trump’s
“irritation and impatience and even frustration with Putin is way up,” said
William B. Taylor Jr., who served as U.S. ambassador to Ukraine from 2006 to
2009.
Mr. Trump
may now be less “star-struck” by the Russian leader than he was in his first
term, Mr. Taylor said, and therefore more willing to challenge him.
“I think
Trump is in a stronger position now vis-à-vis Putin than he was in his first
term. Putin is diminished,” Mr. Taylor said. He added: “He’s now the junior
partner to the Chinese. His economy is in very bad shape.” (Mr. Taylor also
served as the senior U.S. diplomat in Kyiv during Mr. Trump’s first term.)
A close
Trump ally in Congress, Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, says he will
soon have a veto-proof majority for a bill to impose new sanctions on Russia
and tariffs on consumers of its energy resources.
As Mr. Putin
loses favor, Mr. Zelensky appears to have maneuvered himself out of the
doghouse.
One Ukraine
expert added that European leaders, notably including Prime Minister Keir
Starmer of Britain and President Emmanuel Macron of France, served as “marriage
counselors” between Mr. Trump and Mr. Zelensky.
The progress
was visible in the impromptu private meeting the men held on the sidelines of
Pope Francis’ funeral at the Vatican last weekend, during which they sat almost
knee to knee in a marble rotunda, looking intent but not hostile.
While
neither made public the details of their chat, both sides depicted the
15-minute session as positive, and Ukrainians were buoyed to see Mr. Trump
condemn Russia’s latest attacks on Ukraine shortly afterward.
Analysts
also said that Mr. Zelensky successfully negotiated a much better minerals deal
than the one originally presented to his government in February, which critics
called tantamount to extortion.
Mr.
Zelensky’s government hopes that, by playing to Mr. Trump’s powerful profit
motive, the minerals deal will give him a new interest in Ukraine’s survival.
Ukraine’s
gains on that agreement may portend well for peace talks, said Nataliia
Shapoval, the head of the KSE Institute, a prominent Kyiv think tank. “In the
rules of the game of the Trump team, Ukraine proved itself worthy of
negotiations,” she said.
Still, many
Ukraine supporters are tempering their hopes. Mr. Trump has sought Mr. Putin’s
favor for years, publicly excusing his military aggression and even rejecting
widespread charges that Mr. Putin is complicit in corruption, murder and war
crimes.
Should he
shy from confronting the Russian leader, Mr. Trump will have another big
decision to make. Vice President JD Vance recently warned that the United
States might “walk away” if the peace negotiations do not progress soon, and
Mr. Trump said in mid-April that he might say, “we’re going to just take a
pass.”
It is
unclear what that would mean. In a worst-case scenario for Ukraine, Mr. Trump
would declare an end to U.S. aid for Kyiv and give Mr. Putin a green light to
escalate his offensive.
But that
presents Mr. Trump with the risk of “losing” Ukraine in what would be a bloody
and chaotic military disaster, one that could dwarf the chaos of the 2021 U.S.
exit from Afghanistan that Mr. Trump calls a national humiliation.
Michael
Crowley covers the State Department and U.S. foreign policy for The Times. He
has reported from nearly three dozen countries and often travels with the
secretary of state.
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