Keir
Starmer’s realignment with Europe will be a low-key one
Jessica
Elgot
Deputy
political editor
The aim in
No 10 is to Make Brussels Boring Again and never say the words ‘single market’
or ‘freedom of movement’
Labour MPs
urge Starmer to back youth mobility scheme amid EU trade reset
Wed 23 Apr
2025 20.54 CEST
Talk of
veterinary agreements, “Canada-plus” and rules of origin are likely to give
even the most hardened Westminster veteran terrifying flashbacks. There was
once a time when a word from Tory Eurosceptic Bill Cash on dynamic alignment
could splash national newspapers.
Now the more
common reaction to those terms is a barely stifled yawn. And that is exactly
how No 10 would like it to stay.
There are
those in the Labour party who would like to see Keir Starmer embrace a more
romantic pro-European story, to extol the UK’s European values and solidarity,
as a counter to the views of Donald Trump.
But that is
not this prime minister’s style. So there will be a more ambitious EU reset but
in the most low-key way possible. The aim in Downing Street is to Make Brussels
Boring Again.
It seems
fertile ground for the UK to seek closer trade ties with Brussels, and within
No 10 there is a will to do it, as long as the words “single market”, “customs
union” and “freedom of movement” do not appear anywhere.
There are
three key reasons why the UK can think bolder. The first is the most obvious:
the international turmoil caused by both the US’s wildly wavering support for
Ukraine and by Trump’s tariffs has made Brussels a far more willing partner in
the coming negotiations.
Secondly,
the Brexit dinosaurs are mostly gone from the House of Commons. In their place
are an army of Labour millennials eager to vote through closer ties with
Europe, though there are some who will wobble in their “red wall” seats with
Reform snapping at their heels. But Brussels need have no fear – as it once did
– about the instability of the UK parliament.
And there
has been a significant shift in public opinion on Brexit that suggests people
are more open to closer ties with Europe. Some of that is simply because of
population turnover – according to the Economist, two-thirds of the people who
have died since 2020 supported leaving the EU.
But each of
these three factors have their downsides. Starmer has to tread carefully as he
negotiates to remove US trade barriers.
It is
debatable whether the UK really received lower tariffs than the EU because of a
desire for preferential treatment, but it is still a tightrope to walk with
such an unpredictable White House inhabitant. It would be advantageous to do an
agreement with the US before a deal with the EU.
In
parliament, the government is worried that its new Labour MPs will get too
excited about Europe and begin to crow publicly about how the reset shows how
wrong the Brexiters really were. Any kind of language like that is likely to be
stamped on hard.
And Starmer
may have ejected Jacob Rees-Mogg and Steve Baker from parliament but he has a
very effective foe in Nigel Farage.
Some in
government believe Farage will ultimately show little interest in what the
government does on border sanitary checks – perhaps even he is bored of
shouting “Brexit betrayal” or realises it is lower salience than immigration or
net zero.
But the
youth visa scheme, which is likely to be agreed as part of the talks, has the
potential to spiral.
While public
support for Brexit may be dropping, polls show the issue is a very low priority
for voters, despite what pro-European campaigners would like to think. There
could be a major polling backlash if the issue is likely to be seen to dominate
the government’s agenda.
And the drop
in support for leave does not tell the full story. Downing Street sources say
from their focus groups that this is not the people who say they regret voting
leave. The blame is laid at the feet of the Tories who negotiated the last
deal.
This is how
Starmer will frame his eventual EU reset, fixing the mess of the negotiation he
will say was left by Boris Johnson’s government.
There will
even be language that will infuriate some pro-European MPs, that forging
smoother trade with Europe is a “Brexit benefit”, that the UK can be more
flexible with its powerful neighbour.
But the
strategy over the coming weeks and months will be to push for the most
ambitious deal possible in the most unromantic terms possible.
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