Germany: Far-right AfD rises in the polls

 

Germany: Far-right AfD rises in the polls

Sabine Kinkartz

04/03/2025April 3, 2025

https://www.dw.com/en/germany-far-right-afd-rises-in-the-polls/a-72132087

 

A new opinion poll shows the likely future Chancellor Friedrich Merz from the conservative CDU party losing support even before his government is formed. The populist AfD is cashing in on the dissatisfaction.

 

Less than two months ago, the center-right bloc of Christian Democratic Union and Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) won Germany's general election with almost 29% of the vote. The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party came in second with almost 21%.

 

Already there is a new trend, according to the latest Deutschlandtrend survey conducted for German broadcaster ARD. Pollster infratest dimap surveyed a representative sample of 1,334 eligible German voters from March 31 to April 2.

 

The CDU/CSU slumped to 26%, their lowest level since October 2022, while the AfD reached a new high of 24%.

 

The center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) which is currently seeking to form a government with the CDU/CSU remains at 16%, which was their worst result ever in a general election.

 

The Green Party, previously still part of the caretaker government of Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) is now polling at 11% (-1%), the socialist Left Party at 10% (+1%). And the two parties who failed to re-enter parliament, the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW),  a populist party that blends left-leaning economic policies with conservative migration and pro-Russian foreign policy initiatives, and the neoliberal Free Democrats (FDP) remain underneath the 5% threshold for representation in the Bundestag, polling only at 4%.

 

It is not only the CDU/CSU that has seen its voter support drop. CDU leader Friedrich Merz, who wants to lead the future federal government as chancellor, has seen his approval ratings fall as well: 70% of those surveyed in the Deutschlandtrend said they are not satisfied with his work.

 

Debt and investment are contested issues in Germany

The main reason is his turnabout on public debt. Merz rushed a modification of the "debt brake" through the outgoing Bundestag, paving the way for limitless defense spending and a €500 billion ($555 bn) loan for investment in infrastructure and climate protection. Before the election, Merz and the CDU/CSU had ruled out new debt. After the election, they saw the need for a quick U-turn on their position, pointing to changes in global politics. The majority of respondents do not find this credible. Even one in three CDU/CSU supporters asked in the poll expressed doubts.

 

What are the record debts to be spent on? The respondents said they want to see investments primarily in the renovation of schools and daycare centers, while 38% said repair and renovation of the dilapidated transportation routes is the most urgent.

 

Before the new federal government can start spending the money, it must first form itself. Before the Bundestag elections at the end of February, CDU leader Friedrich Merz announced that he would be able to put together a team in record time if he won the elections. Now the CDU, CSU and SPD seem to need more time than expected for their coalition negotiations.

 

The negotiations are taking place behind closed doors. However, details keep leaking and it is obvious that many issues are still controversial. The introduction of a new property tax and the relocation of asylum procedures to third countries are among the sticking points that a majority of respondents to the survey said they'd support.

 

Fifty percent of respondents said they are in favor of lower corporate taxes and also of introducing a speed limit on the Autobahn. However, 85% of respondents don't support proposals to raise the retirement age beyond the age of 67. There is also little support for the idea of reintroducing mandatory military service, which was suspended in 2011.

 

A clear majority of respondents expressed confidence that the three parties will ultimately manage to forge a coalition agreement and also that it is more important in politics to find a compromise rather than to uphold principles.

 

Foreign policy

The next German government will face major domestic as well as foreign policy challenges. The war in Ukraine continues unabated. Russia appears to have no interest in peace negotiations with Ukraine. Two-thirds of respondents to the poll said they worry that Russia may attack other countries in Europe. At the same time, almost eight out of ten fear that NATO partners cannot currently rely on the protection of the United States.

 

US trade policy is also contributing to the uncertainty. US President Donald Trump has imposed new tariffs on trading partners worldwide, which are set to come into force in the coming days. Imports from the European Union will be subject to surcharges of 20%.

 

Seven out of ten respondents in the ARD Deutschlandtrend survey would like to see higher import tariffs on US products in retaliation. Just as many fear damage to the German economy as a result of the US tariff policy. The Economic Ifo Institute has calculated that the new tariffs may reduce Germany's economic growth by 0.3% in 2025.

 

This article was originally written in German.

 

Sabine Kinkartz Reporter and author