Ukraine’s phony peace has begun. Only Trump still believes it’s real.

 

Ukraine’s phony peace has begun. Only Trump still believes it’s real.

 

Donald Trump’s talks with Vladimir Putin have paralyzed Ukraine’s allies in Europe. Nobody is ready for peace.

 

March 21, 2025 12:38 am CET

By Tim Ross

https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-peace-plan-deal-donald-trump-russia-war-ceasefire/

 

BRUSSELS — Europe is suffering from a bad case of what could be called “Trump fatigue.”

 

It’s only five weeks since the U.S. president stunned the West by calling Vladimir Putin to launch the process he’s promised will bring “an END to this very horrible War.”

 

In response, the EU’s outraged leaders pushed for a central seat at the negotiating table, and declared there must be no talks “about Ukraine without Ukraine.” Those indignant demands fell on stony ground.

 

There were more nasty surprises on an almost daily basis — from Donald Trump and his deputy publicly hectoring Ukraine’s “dictator” president in the Oval Office, to castigating the EU over its approach to far-right parties, and then announcing a new wave of tariffs on aluminum and steel.

 

Eventually, the U.S. and Ukraine patched up their battered relationship sufficiently to hold talks in Saudi Arabia and to agree on a plan for a 30-day ceasefire, pausing all fighting along the front line on land, at sea and in the air. There was only one vanishingly modest condition to Ukraine enacting the truce: Russia would have to agree to do the same.

 

But when Trump spoke to Putin again this week to press the 30-day truce, Russia’s leader effectively declined.

 

Instead, Putin set a string of what seemed like impossible conditions along with the bare minimum of a promise not to attack “energy infrastructure.” Then he promptly unleashed a fresh bombardment of Ukrainian cities via hundreds of drones and missiles. There was not a murmur of criticism from the White House.

 

The next day, Trump spoke to Zelenskyy in what he described as “a very good telephone call” lasting around an hour. “We are very much on track.”

 

On Thursday, Zelenskyy updated EU leaders via a video call as they gathered in Brussels to talk some more about how they might support Ukraine (and defend themselves) as the U.S. downgrades its commitment to the region’s security.

 

Zelenskyy told them the talks with Trump were good, before later angrily rejecting Putin’s demands for Ukraine to become neutral and to reduce its military capabilities. “It’s been a bit of a mess as we all know,” said Ulf Kristersson, the Swedish prime minister, speaking to reporters on the sidelines of the summit in Brussels.

 

Fighting over fish

The gathering of the European Council showed how badly EU leaders are now stuck.

 

Locked out of the real action between Trump, Putin and Zelenskyy, they find themselves trapped in a self-made loop of sometimes bizarre distractions and struggling to make progress on helping Ukraine or rearming their own militaries.

 

The summit’s official conclusions noted the need for “urgency” in ramping up home-grown defense. And the leaders called for “continued work on the relevant financing options.” But they are not all convinced by plans for structuring a new €150 billion loan program to support EU countries’ defense investments in EU-manufactured kit.

 

Spain apparently wants to redefine “defense” so it can use the proposed cash injection for addressing rising sea levels and irregular migration. One proposal from the bloc’s chief diplomat, Kaja Kallas, for countries to volunteer as much as €40 billion in military aid to Ukraine this year, seems to be all but over.

 

The EU loan plan as it stands would rule out spending euros on American-made weapons but also on highly regarded British items, since the U.K. is no longer a member of the bloc. At a time when London is working arm-in-arm with Paris to muster a peacekeeping force for Ukraine, that seems to some like bureaucratic overkill.

 

In Brussels, officials say the solution is for British Prime Minister Keir Starmer to sign a comprehensive defense and security pact with the EU at a planned summit in May. Both sides want one. But for some in the EU there’s another hold up: That deal, say diplomats from certain coastal nations, also needs to cover new arrangements for things like fishing rights.

 

So the future of European defense collaboration could yet be held up by a classic Brexit dispute over fish.

 

‘If’ not ‘when’ there is a truce

Speaking privately, diplomats and officials reported that there was a new and grim sense of “realism” in Brussels this week.

 

Europeans recognize now they won’t ever be part of the peace talks Trump has in mind, and it seems they will not be able to replace the support America has provided to Kyiv in terms of military aid, whatever Kallas wants. 

 

As Kristersson, the Swedish leader, said: It’s clear the EU is not the “thing” when it comes to defense. Wider Europe, he suggested, might be.

 

In the U.K., Starmer met military planners who are working on efforts to design a potential military force drawn from countries such as Britain and France to help guarantee any future peace against Russian attack. Yet even he did not sound sure, repeatedly qualifying his comments with the words, “if there is a deal.”

 

“We hope there will be a deal,” Starmer said. “But what I do know if there is a deal, the time for planning is now. It’s not after a deal is reached. I’m well aware that the deal may be in stages.”

 

French President Emmanuel Macron will convene leaders again next week for the latest summit of the “coalition of the willing,” in case peacekeepers are needed one day.

 

In Washington, meanwhile, Trump keeps calm while Putin carries on bombing Ukraine.

 

Hans von der Burchard, Johanna Sahlberg and Jacopo Barigazzi contributed reporting.