EU plan
to send more military aid to Ukraine in shambles
The bloc had
aimed to send billions in military aid and artillery ammunition to Kyiv, but
member countries split on the plan.
March 20,
2025 11:51 pm CET
By Nicholas
Vinocur and Jacopo Barigazzi
BRUSSELS —
Europe's top diplomat, Kaja Kallas, had high hopes of being able to mobilize as
much as €40 billion of military aid to shore up Ukraine's position on the
battlefield and strengthen its hand in upcoming talks with Russia.
But as EU
leaders wound up their gathering in Brussels on Thursday, the plan lay in
tatters — not quite dead, but dramatically downgraded from its original
ambition.
The problems
started, several EU diplomats said, from the plan's inception when the former
Estonian prime minister failed to win prior buy-in from crucial stakeholders.
The process had been "botched up," one of the diplomats summarized.
The original
formulation of the "Kallas plan" had been to ship Ukraine at least
1.5 million rounds of artillery ammunition in 2025. That idea, presented last
month, was shot down by a Hungarian veto. Then she tried again, banking on a
coalition of willing states to dig into their weapons stores and national
coffers to deliver up to €40 billion in military aid to Ukraine this year.
Unfortunately
for Kallas — and for Ukraine — her plan didn't survive impact with the reality
of a European Union where interest in making sacrifices for Kyiv varies
dramatically from country to country.
Southern
nations — much further from the Russian threat — are less eager than those in
the east or the north. But in the end, even France, the bloc's biggest military
power, balked at giving a thumbs-up to the aid package.
It wasn't
for lack of trying on Kallas' part.
On Wednesday
she wrote to foreign and defense ministers proposing a far more modest plan,
calling "as the first step" for the provision of 2 million rounds of
large-caliber artillery ammunition to Ukraine.
“The
realistic plan would be the €5 billion for the ammunition and that’s what we’re
working on right now,” she told reporters before the start of the leaders'
meeting. "This amount of ammunition is available on the market and could
be delivered in 2025."
Her call was
echoed by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who told leaders via video
link: “We need funds for artillery shells and would really appreciate Europe’s
support with at least €5 billion as soon as possible."
But despite
being significantly downsized from her original ambition, even this effort has
so far failed to garner sufficient support.
Kallas'
attempt to salvage her plan by reducing its scope came after ambassadors from
France, Italy and Slovakia delivered a blow on Wednesday, stressing that the
plan should only call on countries to contribute on a "voluntary
basis," thereby reducing pressure to participate.
The problem
was not just that some countries simply don't want to give more to Ukraine,
mentioning budget issues, or that others prefer to deliver their aid
bilaterally. It was also that before presenting her plan and asking member
states to put more money on the table, Kallas failed to properly consult them.
"She
still behaves like a prime minister, she has't realized that she has now a
different job," a Central European diplomat said.
Another key
error was not lining up support from key countries like France, as well as top
officials like Bjorn Seibert, the powerful aide to European Commission
President Ursula von der Leyen, according to three EU diplomats.
Kallas'
failure to push through her plan underlines the difficulty of corralling all 27
countries in a common direction.
The blow to
Kallas' authority is evident. "If you say everywhere, as she does and
she’s right, that we need to maintain unity, then you also have to prepare such
important initiatives in a unity manner," a senior EU diplomat complained.
"This
should have been discussed."
It's not
clear what happens from here with her arms effort, but Ukraine still has the
overwhelming backing of EU countries.
In what's
becoming something of a habit, 26 countries minus Hungary approved a joint
statement reaffirming "continued and unwavering support for Ukraine’s
independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity," as well as promising
to “continue to provide Ukraine with regular and predictable financial
support.”
Hungarian PM
Viktor Orbán was left alone.
“Orbán chose
isolation and a path of illiberal democracy against the obvious interest of the
EU and, in fact, Hungary," one diplomat said.
The effort
to help Ukraine continues next week. French President Emmanuel Macron said a
“coalition of willing countries” will hold a summit on Ukraine next Thursday in
Paris, with Zelenskyy also attending.
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