The conservative Christian Democrats appear poised to win Germany’s parliamentary elections on Sunday, with the hard-right Alternative for Germany in second place.

 

Jim Tankersley

Updated

Feb. 23, 2025, 12:22 p.m. ET8 minutes ago

Jim TankersleyReporting from Berlin

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2025/02/23/world/germany-election

 

Here are the latest developments.

The conservative Christian Democrats appear poised to win Germany’s parliamentary elections on Sunday, with the hard-right Alternative for Germany in second place.

 

The first wave of exit polls, which are historically highly accurate predictors of Germany’s final vote, showed German voters delivering a rebuke to the nation’s left-leaning government over its handling of the economy and immigration. The Christian Democrats were leading with 29 percent of the vote.  The AfD had 19.5 percent, lower than what was predicted, while the governing Social Democrats had 16 percent, the early exit polls indicated.

 

That almost certainly means the country’s next chancellor will be Friedrich Merz, a businessman who has promised to crack down on migrants and slash taxes and business regulations in a bid to kick-start economic growth.

 

Interviews and early returns suggested voters were angry at Chancellor Olaf Scholz over high grocery prices and inadequate wage growth. In many cases, they turned to parties that have long been consigned to Germany’s political fringe.

 

If he ultimately triumphs, Mr. Merz would need to build a coalition with at least one other party, most likely the Social Democrats or the Green Party. He and all other chancellor candidates have vowed not to govern with the AfD, parts of which are classified as extremist by German intelligence.

 

The snap election was held earlier than expected, after Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s ruling coalition splintered last fall. The relatively brief campaign was been dominated by two issues: the economy and immigration.

 

The Trump administration became its own late-arriving issue in the campaign, with candidates warning that the United States is no longer a reliable ally. How Germans voted will now be a critical component of Europe’s response to President Trump’s new world order, and resonate far beyond their borders.

 

Here’s what we are following:

 

Immigration policy: A series of deadly attacks over the past year committed by immigrants, including asylum seekers from the Middle East and Afghanistan, have rattled Germans. The AfD has gained support by promising to deport some immigrants and seal borders, which won the endorsement of Trump adviser Elon Musk and a form of encouragement from Vice President JD Vance. The U.S. meddling in the campaign put off some left-leaning voters on Sunday but was welcomed by others supporting the AfD, according to interviews at polling stations.

 

Economic crisis: Germany’s economy has not grown in five years and is suffering from an industrial competitiveness crisis. Forecasts show an economy rapidly sliding backward, stunning declines that have emerged as one of the biggest issues in the parliamentary election.

 

Elevating the AfD: The AfD, with its anti-immigrant and nationalist platform, has long been a pariah of German politics. A new band of influencers unafraid of confrontation has helped push the Alternative for Germany party to second place in pre-election polls.

 

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Christopher F. Schuetze

Feb. 23, 2025, 12:25 p.m. ET5 minutes ago

Christopher F. SchuetzeReporting from Berlin

 

If exit polls are correct, the results could be a disappointment for the hard-right AfD, which was endorsed by Elon Musk, President Trump’s key advisor. Recent pre-election polls had suggested that they would win more than 20 percent.