Italy’s Giorgia Meloni torn between supporting Ukraine and pleasing Donald Trump

 

        Italy’s Giorgia Meloni torn between supporting Ukraine and pleasing Donald Trump

Amy Kazmin in Rome February 21 2025

https://www.ft.com/content/8f0cc1ab-861f-4124-a9d3-af64c5b176d6

 

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has opted out of a G7 call to mark the third anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, as she seeks to avoid angering President Donald Trump while he is locked in a bitter row with Kyiv.

 

Trump’s disparaging remarks about Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, whom he called a “dictator”, and Washington’s refusal to describe Russia as the aggressor have shocked European officials — and so far thwarted a traditional G7 show of support for Ukraine on February 24, when Moscow started the full-scale invasion three years ago.

 

Though Meloni’s office cited a scheduling conflict for her inability to participate in the G7 call on Monday, analysts say her decision reflects her desire to avoid antagonising Trump. Her apparent unwillingness to take a stand now contrasts with her strong public support for Zelenskyy throughout the war.

 

“Meloni is doing high-wire acrobatics,” said Stefano Stefanini, Italy’s former ambassador to Nato. “She cannot — and doesn’t want — to turn her back on Ukraine because she has gone too far in supporting Kyiv and Zelenskyy. On the other side, she doesn’t want to give any hint of criticism of Trump, who has attacked Zelenskyy.”

 

Skipping the G7 call “is buying time before having to choose” which side to be on, Stefanini added.

 

Many European leaders are reeling from Trump’s personal animus towards Zelenskyy, his embrace of Russian President Vladimir Putin and his overall hostility to Europe, which his administration has argued is cracking down on rightwing voices and no longer abiding by the same values as the US.

 

But Meloni — a rightwing politician due to give a speech at the US Conservative Political Action Conference on Saturday — is in an especially awkward position, given her efforts to cultivate ties with Trump, and her deep friendship with his main financier Elon Musk, who has also laid into Zelenskyy. 

 

Meloni has previously expressed impassioned support for Ukraine’s resistance to Russian aggression, including at the 2022 CPAC conference held just days after Russia’s invasion, and her visits to Kyiv for the first and second anniversaries of the invasion.

 

While the leaders of France, the UK and Germany rallied to Zelenskyy’s defence last week, Meloni — the only European leader to attend Trump’s inauguration — has maintained a studied silence.

 

At an emergency meeting called by French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris with a handful of other European leaders to discuss a collective response to Trump’s sudden rapprochement with Putin, Meloni arrived, looked uncomfortable and complained about a format that initially excluded most of the EU nations directly threatened by Russia.

 

“She is hedging — she hasn’t decided which way to go,” said Beniamino Irdi, an Atlantic Council senior fellow and former Italian government security policy adviser. “She still thinks that the special relationship she has built with Trump and Musk may be of more value than her relationship with European allies.” 

 

Members of Meloni’s Brothers of Italy party had once hoped that her strong ideological affinity and long-standing ties with US Republicans would allow her to facilitate dialogue between Washington and Europe on issues including Ukraine and trade. 

 

Instead, tensions have exploded.

 

“The pendulum swung way faster, to an extreme way further than anyone expected,” said Irdi. “But it’s impossible to build a bridge. The ocean is too wide now.”  

 

“You have a president who is incredibly violent in his anti-Ukraine rhetoric and to keep being his friend, you have to support him on things that will alienate you from everyone else — and the positions you held in the past,” Irdi said. “If you take the G7 call, and you keep pushing for calling Putin the aggressor, you depreciate the capital you have built up with Trump and Musk.”

 

Nathalie Tocci, director of Rome’s Institute of International Affairs, said Meloni’s absence from the G7 call probably marked the start of a gradual reduction of overt support from Rome — especially verbal support — for Kyiv so as not to antagonise the White House.

 

But Tocci said Meloni would probably support any European initiative seen to have Trump’s blessing, including the deployment of Italian troops to a potential reassurance force led by others to secure Ukraine.

 

“She is Italy first, and an Italy first person says the relationship with the United States is the most important thing, and certainly outweighs any Italian interest in Ukraine,” Tocci said. “She will definitely side with Trump whatever happens. She is not going to stick her neck out risking that relationship for the sake of Europe.”