Starmer arrives in Kyiv

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Starmer arrives in Kyiv

By Stefan Boscia

22 mins read

January 16, 2025 8:00 am CET

https://www.politico.eu/newsletter/london-playbook/starmer-arrives-in-kyiv/

London Playbook

By STEFAN BOSCIA

with NOAH KEATE

 

WHILE YOU WERE SLEEPING: Joe Biden used his farewell address to warn that an “oligarchy is taking shape in America of extreme wealth, power and influence.” In an attack on Silicon Valley, the U.S. president said he was “concerned about the potential rise of a tech industrial complex” that spreads disinformation and compared America’s ultra-wealthy to early 20th century “robber barons.”

 

Defending democracy: Biden went on to warn about the dangers to American democracy in a thinly veiled attack on Donald Trump. “I know believing in the idea of America means respecting the institutions that govern a free society,” he told the cameras in the Oval Office. “The presidency, the congress, the courts, a free and independent press.”

 

Who could he be talking about? He also called for the constitution to be amended “to make clear that no president is immune from crimes that he or she commits while in office.”

 

Now read … a full wrap of the speech from my D.C. colleagues here.

 

Good Thursday morning. This is Stefan Boscia.

 

DRIVING THE DAY

STARMER UKRAINI: Keir Starmer arrived in a grey and frosty Kyiv this morning for his first trip to Ukraine since entering office six months ago. The PM goes equipped with a new treaty promising the U.K. will partner with Ukraine for the next century, along with further military aid for Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s government. Just like the newly inked Israel-Hamas cease-fire deal (plenty more on that below), the timing of today’s visit will not be seen as a coincidence. It comes days before Donald Trump’s inauguration, which means it’s Britain’s final chance to flaunt support for Ukraine’s defense against Russia before a possible handbrake turn in American policy.

 

From sea to shining sea: POLITICO’s Tim Ross, who is on the ground with Starmer, reports the PM’s “100-year partnership” treaty will primarily beef up security in the Black Sea, Baltic Sea and Azov Sea. But it will also include a commitment to build stronger economic and cultural ties between the two nations. Starmer is also expected to unveil a new package of support for Ukraine’s immediate needs, including “lethal aid,” with precise details still to come.

 

100 years of fortitude? The “nine pillars” in the partnership will include joint work on science, technology, health care, agriculture and education. No. 10 said this would include 100 schools from the U.K. and Ukraine buddying up in a joint program focused on encouraging children to read for pleasure. Starmer is set to join a class full of Ukrainian pupils as they dial into a call with a school in Liverpool (Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson will be on the other end of the line). Tim’s got a full write-up of the agreement here.

 

Starmer said: “This is not just about the here and now, it is also about an investment in our two countries for the next century, bringing together technology development, scientific advances and cultural exchanges, and harnessing the phenomenal innovation shown by Ukraine in recent years for generations to come.”

 

Grain from Ukraine: Britain has also been working on a system to trace Ukrainian grain that has been stolen from Russian-occupied areas and then sold. The British-made database will be ready and shared with the Kyiv government in the coming weeks, while there are also promises to collaborate on energy and critical minerals (Ukraine has lots of natural supplies), as well as green steel production.

 

NOW, THE SUBTEXT: The trip will be seen in the context of Trump’s return to the White House next week and what that will mean for Ukraine’s future. The president-elect and his allies have consistently said there must be a deal to stop the war, with the expectation Kyiv may have to give up conquered territory in negotiations. Even Zelenskyy acknowledged this point last month (via Sky) and Western leaders have been busy trying to fortify their support for Ukraine since Trump won the election.

 

In case it wasn’t clear: Secretary of State nominee Marco Rubio said on Wednesday the war “has to end,” adding that calling for a cease-fire should become official U.S. policy. Speaking to a Senate confirmation hearing, Rubio said: “It is important for everyone to be realistic. There will have to be concessions made by the Russian Federation, but also by the Ukrainians.” The Kyiv Independent has his full quotes.

 

Where have you been? It’s not all a bed of roses with Britain, either. The trip comes after several recent news reports suggesting Zelenskyy has been frustrated with Starmer’s unwillingness to deliver on requests for more significant military aid. Bloomberg’s Ellen Milligan and colleagues write today that Zelenskyy and his team are unhappy that the PM took so long to personally visit Ukraine. Rishi Sunak went there in his first month in No. 10, though that was, of course, in a very different phase of the war.

 

Endgame: Bloomberg also reports that Starmer and Emmanuel Macron are in talks over potentially sending peacekeeping troops to Ukraine if a peace deal is struck. Ben Riley-Smith also had the peacekeeping line in today’s Telegraph — though a Whitehall official does not sound sold on the idea, telling the paper that “there are challenges over what we could support, what would we want to support, and the broader question about the threat that those troops may be under and whether that is escalatory.”

 

SPEAKING OF PEACE DEALS: While Starmer’s trip may drive much of the Westminster news agenda today, another massively consequential international story dominates this morning’s papers. The Gaza cease-fire is due to begin on Sunday, after Israel and Hamas agreed to a complicated deal on Wednesday that will stretch over months. The terms of the deal will go to Israel’s Cabinet for approval this morning, where it is widely expected to pass — despite opposition from far-right ministers Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich.

 

Closer to home: The deal was hailed by Starmer last night as “the long overdue news that the Israeli and Palestinian people have been desperately waiting for.” Foreign Secretary David Lammy will make a statement to parliament at around midday today (with the usual Commons scheduling caveats) about the agreement.

 

What happens now: The remaining Hamas-held hostages from the Oct. 7 terror attack, estimated to be 98 people, will be released in two stages. In return, Israel will free a large number of Palestinian prisoners, withdraw from Gaza and let in humanitarian aid. Thirty-three hostages will be released in the first six weeks in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, while a second phase will include the release of the remaining hostages.

 

This one could be tough: The third stage of the deal is still being negotiated and relates to the reconstruction of Gaza. This part of the deal would also include Hamas returning the bodies of dead hostages.

 

Still obstacles to surpass: A person close to the talks told the FT that Israel raised a “new outstanding issue” at the last minute, which still needs to be resolved. Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu also said there were unsolved issues to sort out in the coming weeks. All this is a reminder of the fragile nature of talks, which will need to be managed carefully over several months to sustain the cease-fire.

 

Both after a ticket to Sweden: Biden and Trump are both claiming the credit for the deal, after nine months of negotiations mediated by the U.S., Qatar and Egypt. Trump said the “EPIC cease-fire agreement” was because of his election victory — a notion that Biden described as “a joke” to reporters. He said the “deal was developed and negotiated under my administration” and followed the “precise contours” of his peace plan from May. He did, however, acknowledge that Trump’s team did help with negotiations.

 

But but but … It is very difficult to ignore the timing of the deal (it will literally start a day before the inauguration) and the prospect that Trump’s unpredictability scared both sides into getting it done. Israel’s Channel 14 reported that Trump’s Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff put serious pressure on Netanyahu last week to end the war. The Guardian has a write-up of the exchange.

 

Madman theory in play? Trump also warned Hamas last month there would be “all hell to pay” if they didn’t release the hostages by his inauguration. Former Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt told Robert Peston last night that he was “broadly calling this for Trump,” because “both sides in this dispute know … that Trump is not just strong, but he’s also unpredictable.”

 

Don’t get clingy: As governments make final preparations for a Trump presidency, a former foreign policy adviser to Tony Blair and Gordon Brown told POLITICO’s Power Play podcast that the U.K. should “avoid being too needy.” Tom Fletcher, the U.N.’s humanitarian relief boss, told Anne McElvoy that Starmer should avoid caving to “the immediate things that Donald Trump might want — a trip in a gold carriage along the Mall and all that sort of thing.” Even if it’s the only thing that’ll actually butter him up.

 

ON THE OPPOSITION BENCHES

BREAKING WITH BORIS: Kemi Badenoch will promise to win back the public’s trust this afternoon as she properly starts her long journey of detoxifying the Conservative Party (which is beginning to look like Starmer’s three-stage plan when he was in opposition). Badenoch will say “the Conservative Party made mistakes” during 14 years in government in a speech that will try to break with some of Boris Johnson and Theresa May’s actions in No. 10.

 

Today’s timings: Badenoch will give her first major speech of 2025 at 1.30 p.m., which will include a Q&A with assembled hacks. She will then take an hour’s worth of questions from Iain Dale and his callers on LBC at 7 p.m. One senses “Call Kemi” might produce some news lines.

 

Reading between the lines: The Tory leader will promise to always tell the public “the truth” in her speech and claim she is not interested in the easy fixes of her predecessors. She will hit out against previous Tory governments for bringing on Brexit “before we had a plan for growth outside the EU” and for bringing in policies to increase immigration — two policy legacies of the Johnson era. She will also hammer May for not having a plan for the green transition when she announced the 2050 net-zero target.

 

Shoot first and ask questions later: “These mistakes were made because we told people what they wanted to hear first and then tried to work it out later,” Badenoch will say.  The Indy’s David Maddox has a full write-up of the speech trail.

 

The truth hurts: A Tory official told Playbook the attacks “aren’t aimed at anyone” (good luck with maintaining that one) and that Badenoch is “just telling the truth.” They added: “Kemi has a mandate to renew the Conservative Party from top to bottom.”

 

Believe it when I see it: One part of the party that she apparently won’t be changing from top to bottom is her shadow Cabinet. Badenoch’s spokesperson claimed on Wednesday that there would not be a reshuffle before the next election (via the Telegraph) — perhaps this isn’t as unbelievable as it first sounds considering how few MPs the party has. She’s already said she won’t be racing out with big policies just yet, either.

 

IN THE YELLOW CORNER: We will also get Ed Davey’s first major speech of 2025 at 10.30 a.m. in what is shaping up as a packed Thursday for Westminster hacks. The Lib Dem leader will give a sermon on why the U.K. should rejoin the EU’s customs union and steer away from a deeper economic relationship with Trump’s White House.

 

Same ol’ Lib Dems: Davey will call on the government to be “far more positive, far more ambitious” than just “tinkering around the edges of the botched [Brexit] deal the Conservatives signed four years ago.” He reckons this will “show we are not so reliant on the United States, that the U.K. has alternatives, and won’t be bullied into taking whatever Trump offers us.” The Guardian’s Peter Walker has his full quotes.

 

Looking to ’29: The New Statesman’s George Eaton writes that Davey wants to position the Lib Dems as “the only party that will criticize Donald Trump” as a part of a long-term electoral strategy.

 

REEVES AND THE REGULATORS

WHAT’S THE PLAN? Rachel Reeves will drag a bunch of Britain’s regulators into No. 11 this afternoon and demand to see their plans to generate economic growth. The chancellor last night said she would warn the regulators at their lunchtime meeting that they must look “at regulation across the piece” and do “what is necessary to reform it.”

 

Hoping for more good news: Reeves was buoyed by unexpectedly positive inflation figures on Wednesday, down from 2.6 to 2.5 percent, which raised hopes of an accelerated pace of interest rate cuts this year. The ONS also released its monthly GDP estimate for November just as Playbook went to pixel this morning. You can find that figure here, and Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds is out to talk about it on the morning broadcast round.

 

Who wants to start? A senior Treasury figure told the Times’ Oliver Wright (in a story not yet online) that she would challenge any regulators today who were not ambitious enough in their plans to cut red tape. Playbook is told to expect a readout after the meeting.

 

Roll call: Attending the meeting will be bosses from the Competition and Markets Authority (CMA), Ofcom, Ofwat, Ofgem, the Office of Rail and Road, the Environment Agency and the Civil Aviation Authority (CAA). POLITICO’s James Fitzgerald texts in to point out that Britain’s two main financial services regulators, the Financial Conduct Authority and Prudential Regulation Authority, will not be there. A further meeting is expected next week.

 

Need for speed: Shadow Business Secretary Andrew Griffith will say during a speech at the Enterprise Forum today that Reeves’ meeting today “smacks of desperation.” “It’s like asking the village speed watch group to organize the next British Grand Prix,” he will add. Ba dum tish.