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Germany’s far right crashes through the firewall

 



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Germany’s far right crashes through the firewall

 

Did Friedrich Merz, the likely next chancellor, fall into a trap? Or is he forcing other mainstream parties to confront what many regard as the new reality — a harder, less welcoming Germany?

 

January 30, 2025 4:00 am CET

By John Kampfner

John Kampfner is a British author, broadcaster and commentator. His latest book is “In Search of Berlin,” published by Atlantic. He is a regular POLITICO columnist.

https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-far-right-crashes-through-the-firewall/

 

Germany has fallen into a deep funk. Friedrich Merz — the man set to become the next chancellor — has fallen into a deep hole. And the country’s democratic credentials have been damaged.

 

In a week that saw the 80th anniversary of the liberation of Auschwitz, politicians in Berlin have descended into panic and fury, all caused by a toxic cocktail of recent terror attacks, immigration policies and populism. The problem may not be of Merz’s own making, but he’s been spooked by U.S. President Donald Trump into doing what mainstream politicians have vowed never to do — break Germany’s so-called “firewall” and pander to the far right.

 

Question is, did Merz fall into a trap? Or is he forcing other mainstream parties to confront what many regard as the new reality — a harder, less welcoming Germany?

 

Germany was rocked by two terror attacks this winter: In December, a clinical psychologist rammed his car into a Christmas market in the eastern city of Magdeburg, killing six and injuring nearly 300. And in January, a man ran amok in the Bavarian town of Aschaffenburg, stabbing two people to death, including a 2-year-old boy. Both perpetrators were migrants.

 

Amid a nearing general election, the fallout from these events has been shaped by a global political landscape increasingly subsumed by the Trump administration’s breathless authoritarian radicalism — most notably toward migrants. And for better or worse, Merz, whose Christian Democratic Union party (CDU) has been performing consistently well, is a leader with a reputation for shooting from the hip.

 

 

Germany was rocked by two terror attacks this winter: In December, a clinical psychologist rammed his car into a Christmas market in the eastern city of Magdeburg, killing six and injuring nearly 300. |

 

To give him his due, the twin attacks left politicians across the spectrum genuinely upset and enraged. Their bewilderment is enhanced by the ease with which the Alternative for Germany party (AfD) has exploited each tragedy to promote its far-right agenda, buoyed by the enthusiastic endorsement of tech billionaire Elon Musk. Comfortably polling in second place with 20 percent of the vote, many predict support for the party will grow even more as a result of the present mayhem.

 

Immigration has long become a poisonous issue for the political mainstream across the West, particularly for center-right parties. If they fail to crack down — or to be seen as cracking down — they’re roundly accused of going soft and handing votes to the new generation of populists.

 

That’s what was preying on Merz’s mind when he announced two opposition motions on immigration, including permanent control of all Germany’s borders, a ban on any arrivals without valid documentation and an increase in deportations.

 

“We will introduce them independently of who approves them,” Merz said — a statement that was taken to mean he was prepared to accept the AfD’s help in getting the proposals over the line. He reiterated the point in a televised interview: “If the AfD agrees, they agree. If they don’t, let them abstain. There are no conversations, no negotiations, no joint government between us,” he said.

 

The response from his political opponents was swift, his words denounced as presaging a break from a long-standing taboo. The Greens’ chancellor candidate Robert Habeck told his preelection congress that Merz had taken a “step too far” and was flouting European law.

 

Meanwhile, AfD chancellor candidate Alice Weidel crowed: “The firewall has fallen.”

 

And as the result was read out on Wednesday evening, that is exactly what happened. The first CDU motion to restrict migration scraped through by a mere three votes, backed by two small parties and the AfD. The dam has now collapsed. And amid the fury, it will take some for the repercussions to be fully understood.

 

Merz’s problem is that winning the election and forming the next government require two different sets of skills and messaging. The CDU fears that some of its voters will defect to the AfD because of immigration. And Weidel has echoed Trump, declaring she’d close Germany’s borders “on day one.” Of course, that wouldn’t happen because it’s almost impossible for the AfD to form a government — though the line will resonate with some.

 

But Merz and those around him — some of whom were perturbed by his recent utterance — know that on that very same first day, they’ll have to form a coalition, and the only two possible partners are the SPD or the Greens (or both, if the arithmetic goes against them). And while the two parties’ have definitely hardened their positions on immigration, they also don’t want to alienate voters who want a more moderate stance and worry about growing xenophobia and hostility toward migrants.

 

In fact, the current coalition already started bringing down the numbers: Some 230,000 people applied for asylum in Germany in 2024, marking a 30 percent decrease from the previous year, and removals of “illegals” went up. The government of Chancellor Olaf Scholz chose not to shout too loudly about these statistics, trying to keep both sides on board — it’s an approach that’s characterized Scholz’s leadership, including his reluctance to publicly explain exactly how much military assistance Germany is giving Ukraine.

 

But Merz has seemingly concluded that voters want their meat rare, and that if he doesn’t deliver, the AfD will. And while he’s said his position on migration is “non-negotiable” when it comes to forming the next coalition, he ultimately will have to negotiate with potential partners from mainstream parties who see his actions this week as unconscionable. That is his — and Germany’s — terrible bind.

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