News
Commentary
Germany’s
far right crashes through the firewall
Did
Friedrich Merz, the likely next chancellor, fall into a trap? Or is he forcing
other mainstream parties to confront what many regard as the new reality — a
harder, less welcoming Germany?
January 30,
2025 4:00 am CET
By John
Kampfner
John
Kampfner is a British author, broadcaster and commentator. His latest book is
“In Search of Berlin,” published by Atlantic. He is a regular POLITICO
columnist.
https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-far-right-crashes-through-the-firewall/
Germany has
fallen into a deep funk. Friedrich Merz — the man set to become the next
chancellor — has fallen into a deep hole. And the country’s democratic
credentials have been damaged.
In a week
that saw the 80th anniversary of the liberation of Auschwitz, politicians in
Berlin have descended into panic and fury, all caused by a toxic cocktail of
recent terror attacks, immigration policies and populism. The problem may not
be of Merz’s own making, but he’s been spooked by U.S. President Donald Trump
into doing what mainstream politicians have vowed never to do — break Germany’s
so-called “firewall” and pander to the far right.
Question is,
did Merz fall into a trap? Or is he forcing other mainstream parties to
confront what many regard as the new reality — a harder, less welcoming
Germany?
Germany was
rocked by two terror attacks this winter: In December, a clinical psychologist
rammed his car into a Christmas market in the eastern city of Magdeburg,
killing six and injuring nearly 300. And in January, a man ran amok in the
Bavarian town of Aschaffenburg, stabbing two people to death, including a
2-year-old boy. Both perpetrators were migrants.
Amid a
nearing general election, the fallout from these events has been shaped by a
global political landscape increasingly subsumed by the Trump administration’s
breathless authoritarian radicalism — most notably toward migrants. And for
better or worse, Merz, whose Christian Democratic Union party (CDU) has been
performing consistently well, is a leader with a reputation for shooting from
the hip.
Germany was
rocked by two terror attacks this winter: In December, a clinical psychologist
rammed his car into a Christmas market in the eastern city of Magdeburg,
killing six and injuring nearly 300. |
To give him
his due, the twin attacks left politicians across the spectrum genuinely upset
and enraged. Their bewilderment is enhanced by the ease with which the
Alternative for Germany party (AfD) has exploited each tragedy to promote its
far-right agenda, buoyed by the enthusiastic endorsement of tech billionaire
Elon Musk. Comfortably polling in second place with 20 percent of the vote,
many predict support for the party will grow even more as a result of the
present mayhem.
Immigration
has long become a poisonous issue for the political mainstream across the West,
particularly for center-right parties. If they fail to crack down — or to be
seen as cracking down — they’re roundly accused of going soft and handing votes
to the new generation of populists.
That’s what
was preying on Merz’s mind when he announced two opposition motions on
immigration, including permanent control of all Germany’s borders, a ban on any
arrivals without valid documentation and an increase in deportations.
“We will
introduce them independently of who approves them,” Merz said — a statement
that was taken to mean he was prepared to accept the AfD’s help in getting the
proposals over the line. He reiterated the point in a televised interview: “If
the AfD agrees, they agree. If they don’t, let them abstain. There are no
conversations, no negotiations, no joint government between us,” he said.
The response
from his political opponents was swift, his words denounced as presaging a
break from a long-standing taboo. The Greens’ chancellor candidate Robert
Habeck told his preelection congress that Merz had taken a “step too far” and
was flouting European law.
Meanwhile,
AfD chancellor candidate Alice Weidel crowed: “The firewall has fallen.”
And as the
result was read out on Wednesday evening, that is exactly what happened. The
first CDU motion to restrict migration scraped through by a mere three votes,
backed by two small parties and the AfD. The dam has now collapsed. And amid
the fury, it will take some for the repercussions to be fully understood.
Merz’s
problem is that winning the election and forming the next government require
two different sets of skills and messaging. The CDU fears that some of its
voters will defect to the AfD because of immigration. And Weidel has echoed
Trump, declaring she’d close Germany’s borders “on day one.” Of course, that
wouldn’t happen because it’s almost impossible for the AfD to form a government
— though the line will resonate with some.
But Merz and
those around him — some of whom were perturbed by his recent utterance — know
that on that very same first day, they’ll have to form a coalition, and the
only two possible partners are the SPD or the Greens (or both, if the
arithmetic goes against them). And while the two parties’ have definitely
hardened their positions on immigration, they also don’t want to alienate
voters who want a more moderate stance and worry about growing xenophobia and
hostility toward migrants.
In fact, the
current coalition already started bringing down the numbers: Some 230,000
people applied for asylum in Germany in 2024, marking a 30 percent decrease
from the previous year, and removals of “illegals” went up. The government of
Chancellor Olaf Scholz chose not to shout too loudly about these statistics,
trying to keep both sides on board — it’s an approach that’s characterized
Scholz’s leadership, including his reluctance to publicly explain exactly how
much military assistance Germany is giving Ukraine.
But Merz has
seemingly concluded that voters want their meat rare, and that if he doesn’t
deliver, the AfD will. And while he’s said his position on migration is
“non-negotiable” when it comes to forming the next coalition, he ultimately
will have to negotiate with potential partners from mainstream parties who see
his actions this week as unconscionable. That is his — and Germany’s — terrible
bind.
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