Newsletters
London
Playbook
Reeves
clears the runway for landing
By Stefan
Boscia
January 28,
2025 8:00 am CET
https://www.politico.eu/newsletter/london-playbook/reeves-clears-the-runway-for-landing/
London
Playbook
By STEFAN
BOSCIA
Good Tuesday
morning. This is Stefan Boscia.
DRIVING THE
DAY
THE FINAL
BOSSES: Rachel Reeves will lay the final groundwork this morning for her big
growth pitch that would (if successful) change the whole course of this
government. On Wednesday the chancellor will unveil her plans to slash red
tape, shed some of her recent economic gloomsterism and, in her own words, get
Britain building. But first, Reeves and Prime Minister Keir Starmer will finish
off days of meticulous pitch-rolling by pre-selling her speech to a room full
of business leaders. Reeves will then take her plans to Cabinet for final
sign-off in what will be a jam-packed morning for the chancellor.
Talking to
the Square Mile: Reeves and Starmer will meet the CEOs of some of Britain’s
biggest businesses this morning as they wave around proof the government is
serious about boosting Britain’s anemic economic growth. In attendance will be
chief execs from companies including Lloyds Bank, Nationwide, Taylor Wimpey,
BAE Systems, Tesco and BT. The chancellor and PM will brief the roundtable on
their plans to slash red tape (especially on planning and environmental
regulations) and stoke infrastructure activity. This is expected to include
government support for the expansion of Heathrow, Gatwick and Luton airports.
Free the
surplus: The pair also come to the meeting armed with a fresh policy ahead of
Wednesday’s big speech. The government confirmed last night it would lift
restrictions on defined benefit pension funds, which will allow them to invest
locked-away “surplus funds” into the British economy. No. 10 reckons there is
£160 billion of funds in surplus and that “restrictions have meant that
businesses have struggled to invest them.”
**A message
from Goldman Sachs: Despite challenges to the region ranging from trade
uncertainty to high energy prices and emerging competitors, the Euro area is
forecast to avoid recession in 2025, according to Goldman Sachs Research. The
economy will be buoyed by increases in income and spending, especially in the
south. Read the Europe Macro Outlook.**
Tick of
approval: The initial reaction from business groups was roundly positive, with
the BVCA private equity lobby calling it “a further step to unlock investment
from pension funds into productive assets and fire up the U.K.’s growth
trajectory.” A City figure told Playbook
that Reeves’ November pension reforms were more significant, but that today’s
announcement would be “important as a signal they are being ambitious and
keeping up momentum.” The FT has full details of the new pensions policy here.
Tear down
this wall: Reeves said she was “fighting every day to tear down the biggest
barriers to growth, taking on regulators, planning processes and opposition to
this urgent mission.” Starmer said he wants to oversee “nothing short of
rewiring the economy,” which will include “creative reform, the removal of
hurdles, and unrelenting focus.” The PM is due to do a pool clip after the
roundtable, which will drop on our TV screens at some point this morning.
Doing the
rounds: New City Minister Emma Reynolds will be on the morning broadcast round
to talk up the government’s growth agenda, which will include Sky at 7.15 a.m.
(full timings below). Reynolds is also speaking to the Treasury committee at 10
a.m., which will be the first chance for MPs to properly grill her since she
was promoted. Maybe she’ll get asked at some point about her previous lobbying
efforts for China.
BACK TO THE
RANCH: Starmer and Reeves will then travel back home to Downing Street to brief
the Cabinet on Wednesday’s big speech. The 9.30 a.m. Cabinet meeting will give
Reeves a chance to unveil the details of her growth push and to rally her
colleagues around her vision. Reeves tried to fire up Labour MPs at a mostly
pliant meeting of the Parliamentary Labour Party on Monday by saying “the
prize” (presumably both economic and political) “could be immense” if the
government gets its growth mission right.
She said:
“Wealth created, and wealth shared, in every part of Britain. Now is the chance
for us to shout about that potential and the brighter future ahead. Because no
one else is going to do it.” The Mirror’s Ashley Cowburn and Lizzy Buchan have
a full write-up of Reeves’ Monday night speech. POLITICO’s Dan Bloom texts in
to say Reeves was challenged by only one MP at the PLP meeting— anti-Heathrow
third runway campaigner Ruth Cadbury.
Speak now or
forever hold your peace: Today’s Cabinet meeting is also the final chance for
anyone in attendance — *cough* Ed Miliband *cough*— to speak up against Reeves’
dash for growth. Miliband is the highest profile member of the government
opposed to a third runway at Heathrow on environmental grounds.
What to make
of this? The energy secretary got Lobby journos excited on Monday when he told
a Westminster committee that “any aviation expansion must be justified within
carbon budgets and if it cannot be justified then it will not take place.” (Via
MailOnline.) However, POLITICO’s energy policy team pointed out that Miliband
also went on to say there were “mechanisms” to get around breaching carbon
budgets.
Though
technically … While Reeves can offer airports political support, any final
decisions on whether they can expand are quasi-judicial ones for Transport
Secretary Heidi Alexander.
All sewn up:
In any case, the chance of Cabinet table dissent this morning appears to be
very small, according to senior government figures. One Cabinet minister told
Playbook there was “zero” chance anyone would speak out against Reeves’ plan.
“Support for the chancellor is rock solid,” they said. “She’s come out swinging
and she’s making the weather.”
But but but:
Reeves’ growth plan may still run into internal trouble in one area. The
chancellor announced in Davos last week that she wanted to change the U.K.’s
visa rules to make it easier to attract overseas workers in AI and life
sciences. Officials also say this proposal will come up in her speech on
Wednesday. But the i’s Arj Singh reports the Home Office is dead against fee
reductions for workers in these areas.
Coming
attraction: This may well set up the classic Home Office versus Treasury battle
over immigration that happens in nearly every government. While Home Secretary
Yvette Cooper has been tasked with bringing down immigration numbers, Reeves
will probably be keen on any help she can get in boosting GDP growth figures.
Might be
worth a look: And speaking of immigration, the ONS is today releasing new
estimates of how much Britain’s population is set to grow over the next 15
years. Those will be out at 9.30 a.m. here.
Coming
attraction: Once Wednesday’s speech is out the way, attention will start
turning to another tricky pitch for growth — Keir Starmer’s EU “reset,” and his
meeting with 27 EU leaders next Monday. The FT’s George Parker, Peter Foster
and Andy Bounds report that the PM is looking to re-link the U.K. and EU
emission trading schemes as part of a fuller summit with the bloc later this
year.
**AI: stay
on top of upcoming regulatory changes. To help you to stay ahead of upcoming
regulatory changes in AI, cybersecurity, digital infrastructure and more, our
team is happy to grant you complimentary access to our daily Pro Morning Tech
Newsletter during the week of the Paris AI Action Summit, from February 10 to
14. Activate your free trial here.**
AN EXTREME
LEAK
WATCH OUT
JOE ROGAN: A leak of the government’s extremism review has forced ministers to
fight off suggestions they want to expand the definition of extremism to
conspiracy theorists or people involved in the “manosphere.” Center-right think
tank Policy Exchange obtained a copy of the Yvette Cooper-commissioned report
(link here), revealing it recommended that extremism should not be viewed
through the lens of fringe ideologies (like Jihadism or neo-Nazism).
Casting a
wide net: The review instead said extremism should be based “on behaviors and
activity of concern,” because of the “dizzying range of beliefs and ideologies
we see.” It called for the definition of extremism to be extended to people who
spread conspiracy theories, are involved in “online subcultures called the
manosphere” or engage in extreme misogyny. Environmental protesters and
anarchists are also singled out for inclusion.
Backing
away: Security Minister Dan Jarvis was quick to disown the results of the
review, commissioned by Cooper after the Southport riots, saying the
recommendations are not government policy. “There are not, and have never been
any plans to extend the definition of extremism,” Jarvis said. He added: “But
as the horrific Southport attack shows, alongside that we also need more action
on those drawn towards mixed ideologies and violent obsessed young people.”
Tiers for
fears: The story got picked up widely in this morning’s papers, with the Times
and Telegraph splashing on it. The Times’ Matt Dathan goes in on the review’s
claim that accusations of “two-tier policing” (which have rained down on
Starmer since Southport) are part of an extremist right-wing narrative. People
who have accused the PM of overseeing “two-tier” justice include Nigel Farage,
Robert Jenrick, Suella Braverman and, of course, Elon Musk.
Bobbies on
the (social media) beat: The Tel, meanwhile, highlights the review’s call for
police to spend more time going after people for non-crime hate incidents —
like what happened to the paper’s columnist Allison Pearson. The Home Office
defines non-crime hate incidents as an action that is “perceived by a person
other than the subject to be motivated — wholly or partly — by hostility or
prejudice towards persons with a particular characteristic.” The category is
often used by police in relation to social media posts.
Piling in:
Shadow Home Secretary Chris Philp jumps on all this to accuse the government of
planning “a backward step in the interests of the political correctness we know
Keir Starmer loves.”
THE KIDS
AREN’T ALRIGHT: The leak comes just as a report today claims the nearly 150
children arrested during last summer’s riots were there for “fun” and not for
any ideological reason. The Children’s Commissioner said the children joined
for “the thrill of the moment” and that their involvement raises “some really
serious questions about childhood in England and why our children feel so
disaffected and disempowered.” The BBC has a write-up of the report here.
Sem comentários:
Enviar um comentário