In a
right-leaning EU, Meloni poised to be bridge to Trump
In Trump's
second term, Italy’s PM Giorgia Meloni has a good chance of keeping the EU in
his good graces — if she can think beyond her own interests.
Eloise Hardy
By Eloise
Hardy
Eloise is a
reporter at The Parliament Magazine.
31 Dec 2024
Co-Author
Gabriele Rosana
With the
French and German governments currently in tatters, it may fall to the EU’s
third-largest economy to lead transatlantic relations when Donald Trump returns
to the White House.
Prime
Minister Giorgia Meloni – with her broad political alignment with Trump, her
good relationship with his key backer Elon Musk and her good standing with
other European leaders – is well placed to become the bloc’s so-called
Trump-whisperer for his second term.
The
alignment isn’t perfect. At only 1.5% of GDP, Italy’s defence spending is one
of the few failing to meet NATO’s 2% goal. Trump has rarely hesitated to use
that metric to complain of “being taken advantage of” by allies.
That makes
Italy “the only large European ally” short-changing its military, Nathalie
Tocci, a former adviser to EU foreign affairs high representatives and now the
director of the Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI), tells The Parliament.
Trump’s
transactional approach to politics means he could overlook this shortcoming if
he is more broadly aligned with Meloni. Her position as a right-wing leader at
the heart of the EU establishment could override all other considerations.
“It may not
be as much of a problem because of the affinity that she has with Trump,” Luigi
Scazzieri, senior research fellow at the Centre for European Reform, tells The
Parliament. “Maybe he won't pick on her as badly as he would if it were a
country that had a left-wing leader.”
European
dynamics
Meloni is
still broadly inside the EU tent. That’s a big contrast to Hungary’s Prime
Minister Viktor Orbán, whose friendliness to Russia’s Vladimir Putin and
illiberal behaviour at home have made him an outcast in EU politics.
“What also
matters is your credibility among your European partners,” Jörn Fleck, director
of the Atlantic Council’s Europe Centre, which awarded Meloni with its Global
Citizen Award in 2024, tells The Parliament. “Orbán playing any sort of
intermediary role, just because of his good connections with the Trump world,
is really far-fetched.”
More
centrist figures are thin on the ground. French President Emmanuel Macron, who
positioned himself as a bridge to Trump during his first term, is preoccupied
with internal political struggles. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, though
aligned with Trump on defence spending and migration, has spoken out against
his ambivalence towards Ukraine.
Meloni’s
home front
“Meloni
wants to be the leader. And now that Trump is elected, she really wants to show
that she's able to have a direct dialogue with Trump,” Jean-Pierre Darnis, a
professor of Franco-Italian relations at Côte d'Azur University in Nice, tells
The Parliament. “She's into power.”
Appearing
powerful on the world stage could consolidate her power at home. Italy’s large
trade surplus could benefit from a good relationship with Trump. The
president-elect has proposed imposing tariffs on imports, including a baseline
tariff on 10% of all foreign-made goods, a targeted 60% tariff on Chinese goods
and a 100% tariff on all imported cars.
Italy’s €42
billion trade surplus with the US puts the country “in a particularly
vulnerable position,” says Tocci. "As a true nationalist, she will
ultimately be whispering for her own national interests,” she said.
Hanging EU
partners out to dry, however, could come back to bite. Being part of a single
market means a rising tide has to lift all boats to raise any at all.
“A bad
relation between Germany and the US would affect Italy, and the French, and the
Spanish. It’s a collective sum game,” says Darnis.
In Musk we
trust?
Another
string to Meloni’s bow is her relationship with Elon Musk, a key Trump ally.
Their relationship was originally business-focused – they negotiated coverage
for Musk’s orbital internet service Starlink to provide services in rural
Italy. A series of meetings in 2023 and 2024 cemented a friendship between the
two, founded on shared politics and an appreciation of the Roman Empire.
Since then,
the French-Italian venture Telespazio, led by Italy’s defence company Leonardo,
signed an agreement with SpaceX, which owns Starlink, to fully integrate their
services in its global satellite network.
“A good
relationship with Musk could put Italy in the loop with IT investments, which
is a concern in Italy. It also gives points to the EU, which is the main market
for digital technology consumers,” says Darnis.
Meloni’s
opponents have criticised her close relationship with the tycoon. President
Sergio Mattarella said that Italy “can take care of itself” after Musk called
the Italian judiciary an “unelected autocracy” on his social media platform X.
Without
explicitly calling out Musk, Mattarella has also taken aim at “economic
operators whose financial power today surpasses that of many medium-sized
states” and who “manage essential services nearing monopolistic conditions.”
Meloni has
brushed aside these criticisms. During senate debate, she said she “can be
friends with [him] while also being the head of the first government that in
Italy passed a law to regulate private activities in space.”
For Meloni
to cash in on her cosy relationship, however, she will need to bring home the
bacon not just for herself or Italy, but all the EU. Her counterparts will be
watching to see if she can — and wants to.
“If someone
wants to play some sort of intermediary role, then you have to have credibility
on both sides,” says Fleck.
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