Opinion
Europe
needs to adapt or it will get left behind
Boldly
aiming for “strategic interdependence,” the EU should embrace
interconnectedness where prudent while building autonomy where it can.
The war on
Ukraine was a wake-up call, exposing Europe’s overreliance on the transatlantic
partnership. |
Opinion
January 20, 2025 4:00 am CET
By Børge Brende, Arancha González and Mark Leonard
Børge Brende is president and CEO of the World Economic
Forum. Arancha Gonzalez Laya is dean of the Paris School of International
Affairs (Sciences Po). Mark Leonard is director of the European Council on
Foreign Relations.
Amid an unsettled geopolitical and geoeconomic landscape,
Europe stands at a crossroads.
The strategic debate currently taking place in many of the
continent’s capitals is largely focused on whether to continue down the road of
interdependence with foreign partners, or to forge a new path of greater
strategic autonomy. But to be truly secure today and remain well-positioned for
tomorrow, Europe needs to opt for a middle ground.
Embracing interconnectedness where prudent while building
autonomy where it can, this is an approach that can be called “strategic
interdependence.”
Today, the imbalanced strategic status quo has been most
salient when it comes to security. The war on Ukraine was a wake-up call,
exposing Europe’s overreliance on the transatlantic partnership. But this
realization doesn’t mean the EU should prioritize autonomy over alliances. U.S.
nuclear deterrence and defense partnerships, including NATO, are indispensable,
and Europe cannot take this defense arrangement for granted.
That’s why the bloc must become a stronger pillar within
NATO — both for its own sake and for its partners. Tactical commitments to the
transatlantic alliance need to be coupled with stronger European strategic
structures. And one possible way to do this would be to set up an informal
European Security Council, one comprising representatives from the Council of
the EU and the European Commission, to streamline defense coordination and
enable swift, decisive action.
Meanwhile, on energy, Europe’s reliance on Russian gas
revealed the perils of depending on a single provider. Before the war on
Ukraine, over 40 percent of Europe’s natural gas imports came from Russia,
which created a critical vulnerability. The EU has responded to the crisis by
diversifying its energy imports, significantly increasing its liquefied natural
gas supplies. But while this is a prudent approach in the near term, long-term
resilience requires the continent to become more self-reliant on green sources.
This means Europe should continue energy partnerships with
allies for short-term needs, but it must also address its overreliance on
external sources for green components. Instead of competing in mature
technologies like solar panels, where China controls over 80 percent of global
manufacturing, the EU should be targeting sectors where it can gain a
competitive advantage. Emerging fields such as battery tech, where innovation
is still up for grabs, are one possibility here. Moreover, to ensure stability
in its green transition, a Critical Raw Materials Reserve akin to the U.S.
Strategic Petroleum Reserve could act as a buffer against supply-chain shocks.
When it comes to technology, Europe is losing its edge as
well: 80 percent of semiconductor suppliers are located outside the bloc, while
U.S. and Chinese firms are dominating AI, quantum computing and advanced chips.
To turn this around, the EU must overhaul its regulatory landscape by cutting
red tape, eliminating barriers and setting up one-stop shops to simplify
digital compliance for businesses.
Additionally, by introducing de-risking tools, such as loan
guarantee programs that will facilitate investment, the bloc needs to ensure
capital is flowing to critical industries. To be clear, this isn’t about a lack
of money: The EU boasts a 2.5 percent of GDP annual current-account surplus,
which it invests abroad.
Alliances with countries around the world will be essential,
including on trade where Europe must pursue an active agenda. The EU’s single
market, representing 15 percent of global GDP and 450 million consumers, is its
economic trump card, and Europe should use this to secure needed critical
resources for its digital and green industries.
Crucially, striking the right strategic balance will also
necessitate human capital. Europe’s demographic clock is ticking, and by 2050,
the bloc’s working-age population will shrink by 20 percent, with countries
like Germany facing a gap of 7 million workers by 2035. That’s why migration
policies need to be strategic and better tailored to labor-market needs. Public
support hinges on reframing migration as an opportunity — a driver of
innovation, labor market renewal and sustainable growth for Europe’s aging
economies.
Strategic interdependence is more than a policy framework,
it’s a mindset — one that Europe’s leaders must embrace if they are to navigate
the world as it is, not as they wish it to be. By investing in defense,
accelerating the green transition, fostering innovation, deepening global trade
ties and reforming migration policies, they can secure Europe’s place as a
global leader. For the alternative is a fragmented, stagnant bloc, sidelined in
great-power rivalries.
The choice is clear: Adapt or get left behind.
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