‘The race
is wide open’: MPs’ vote looms for six Tory leadership hopefuls
Badenoch and
Jenrick are the bookies’ favourites but the party’s reduced ranks make the
numbers extremely tight
Jessica
Elgot, Pippa Crerar and Peter Walker
Fri 30 Aug
2024 15.38 BST
When the
Conservative MPs who remain return to Westminster, they will briefly seem like
some of the most popular people in SW1. With the party so reduced in numbers,
over the next few days there will be a furious wooing of those who have not yet
declared for one of the six leadership candidates.
“The race is
wide open,” one senior Tory said. “There are barely any public endorsements so
no one can tell who is the favourite. The public polling has been all over the
place. Often they seem to be just based on who has paid for it.”
The former
business secretary Kemi Badenoch and Robert Jenrick the former immigration
minister are the bookies’ favourites – but both have significant detractors and
are fishing in the same pool of voters. Similarly, Tom Tugendhat, the most
obvious choice of the One Nation wing, is duking it out with James Cleverly.
Most MPs
expect Priti Patel and Mel Stride to be the candidates who fall when MPs
whittle the candidates down to four before the party’s conference. But Patel
has a close following in the party membership, and Stride has racked up a
significant number of public endorsements from MPs.
The numbers
are extremely tight because of the decimation of the parliamentary party. With
six candidates needing 10 supportive MPs, at least 60 of the party’s 121 MPs
are accounted for. A significant chunk more are unlikely to declare publicly,
including whips and members of the party board.
“It’s
honestly something like 30 MPs who will decide it at the first stage,” one
senior campaign source said.
One Tory
insider said they believed about 30 MPs would not publicly back any candidate,
instead privately swearing loyalty to several: “The biggest cohort among Tory
MPs are the careerists. They just want to back the winner.”
Boris
Johnson, while a close friend of Patel, is not expected to back anyone yet.
Asked at her campaign launch on Friday if the former PM supported her, Patel
praised Johnson as “phenomenal for this country” but refused to elaborate.
After the
final campaign launches over the weekend and Monday, the candidates will have a
closed-door leadership hustings with MPs on Tuesday, before the first round of
voting on Wednesday. This will eliminate at least one candidate.
Another
round of voting, if needed, will reduce the field to the four candidates who
will take part in a “beauty parade” at conference. After that, MPs will whittle
it down to two, who will be put to the members for a vote. The result will not
come until 2 November.
Jenrick, the
only candidate to formally launch his campaign before the summer, will hold a
rally in Westminster on Sunday. Once close to Rishi Sunak, he has reinvented
himself as a migration hardliner, racking up the most endorsements, including
high-profile MPs on the right.
“He’s
basically the nicer face of Suella [Braverman],” one backer said. His core
supporters among MPs include rightwingers such as John Hayes and Danny Kruger,
but also the former ministers Jesse Norman and John Lamont.
Jenrick’s
backers say they know he has the most to do to make himself known to the
membership and he has spent the summer touring Tory constituency associations,
visiting 16 in the last week alone.
“He’s the
Princess Anne of the contest,” said one ally. “He turns up anywhere that will
have him, gives lots of speeches and meets everyone.”
His
supporters reject suggestions that he is not a “true” rightwinger, citing his
decision to quit as immigration minister over Rishi Sunak’s Rwanda plan for
asylum seekers.
But rival
supporters say they believe the rise of Jenrick’s star has been almost entirely
manufactured. He is the 33rd best-known Conservative, according to YouGov.
Jenrick in
front of an audience, in front of a board bearing the slogan: ‘Change. Win.
Deliver.’
View image
in fullscreen
Robert
Jenrick at the launch of his leadership campaign in Newark-on-Trent.
Photograph: Darren Staples/Getty Images
“Rob’s whole
rise has been a Westminster thing,” said one. “I think members aren’t really
sure why there has been such a fuss made of this guy who seems to have come
from nowhere. That’s why conference is so important, because you’ll see who has
the momentum, who members are queueing up to see. It could all change there.”
Badenoch
will launch her campaign on Monday after spending time in August on a family
holiday, a decision which has drawn sniping from her rivals.
The claim
from Badenoch’s team that members and MPs would not begrudge the “next leader”
taking a holiday after the general election prompted derision from a source in
another campaign: “If she thinks the six-week election campaign was hard,
perhaps being leader of the opposition isn’t for her.”
There is
already a determined “anybody but Kemi” campaign among MPs who have, over the
years, fallen foul of her apparent abrasive behaviour.
“She could
actually blow up and cause real and lasting damage that the party can’t recover
from,” said one foe. “Another disastrous leader with a Truss-style meltdown
could tip us over the edge.”
The third
candidate with a well-resourced and funded operation is Tugendhat, the former
security minister, who has made particular overtures to new MPs.
He won the
coveted endorsement of Nick Timothy, a new MP who was previously chief of staff
to Theresa May and is seen as a key Tory thinker.
It has added
credibility to Tugendhat’s determination not to be seen as the token wet in the
contest. He also used a speech on Thursday to propose a legally enforceable
migration cap, and to suggest he may pull Britain out of the European
convention on human rights.
Tugendhat
has also undertaken a determined ground campaign, visiting more than 100
associations. But his speech was attended by few key party figures.
Some MPs
believe Cleverly, the former home secretary, has an outside chance, citing
popularity with the membership and a unifying approach. One supporter said:
“James is the only candidate who is focusing on how the Tories can actually win
power again, rather than an internal battle over the right which only ends one
way.”
Patel’s
speech, also in Westminster, saw a good turnout of members but focused more on
homilies based around her mantra of party unity than specific policies, even
when she was asked to name some.
“The British
people are where my compass is, and that’s where we need to be as a party,” she
said, in one slightly gnomic utterance.