Welcome to 2024, a world full of crazy elections
BY STUART
LAU
JANUARY 1,
2024 10:00 AM CET
POLITICO
Brussels Playbook
By STUART
LAU
HAPPY NEW
YEAR. This is Stuart Lau writing your very first Brussels Playbook in 2024. Can
this year go wrong? In so many f**king ways! Keep reading.
HOME TURF:
The Belgian presidency of the EU Council begins today. In a totally unrelated
development, our in-house Belgian Pieter Haeck will write tomorrow’s Playbook.
Send him your New Year’s party gossip.
Also
starting today: Italy takes over the G7 presidency. Brazil leads the G20.
Slovenia is a non-permanent member of the U.N. Security Council this year.
BREAKING
NEWS: DANISH QUEEN
END OF AN
ERA: Europe’s longest-reigning monarch, Queen Margrethe II of Denmark, dropped
a bombshell in her televised address on New Year’s Eve, when the 83-year-old
announced she’ll be stepping down in just a fortnight — after more than half a
century in the role. She becomes the first royal in modern Danish history to
renounce the throne.
In her
speech: “I have decided that now is the right time. On January 14, 2024 — 52
years after I succeeded my beloved father — I will step down as Queen of
Denmark. I leave the throne to my son Crown Prince Frederik,” she said,
according to Danish public broadcaster DR. “My thanks go to all the many, many
people who, at special events, as well as in everyday life, have surrounded me
and my family with loving words and thoughts.”
Back
issues: While she was in general good health, Margrethe underwent extensive
back surgery in 2023.
Thank-you
note from PM: Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, on behalf of the entire
population, expressed “a heartfelt thank you to Her Majesty the Queen for her
lifelong dedication and tireless efforts for the Kingdom.”
The
announcement came as a complete shock to the country, as news channels replaced
normal New Year’s Eve festivities with the royal rolling news.
A WORLD IN
BALLOT BOXES
VOTE LIKE
NEVER BEFORE: Not since the ancient Greeks established democracy in the 6th
century BC will so many people on earth cast a ballot in a year as in 2024.
Across all continents, 50 nations will hold elections in which 2 billion people
— one in four of the world’s population — will be voting. (Even North Koreans
will, likely with just one candidate for each constituency). In some cases that
doesn’t mean exercising one’s democratic rights, such as in Russia where the
opposition has been all but wiped out. In others, elections will put Western
democracy on trial. Oh, Donald!
EUROPE’S
ELECTORAL BATTLES: The Brussels bubble’s energy will be sucked up by the
European Parliament elections, taking place from June 6-9. Some 400 million
citizens can take part. All eyes will be on the far right, which is forecast to
make gains. The election result — and subsequent back-room negotiations among
EU leaders — will determine the lineup of the next European Commission.
President Ursula von der Leyen remains (unofficially) the bookies’ favorite to
stay on for another five years, while she will get a new European Council
counterpart.
ALL AROUND
EUROPE: Finland kicks off the EU’s election cycle with presidential polls on
January 28, with a second round scheduled for February 11. Portugal (March 10),
Lithuania (May 12), Belgium (June 9), and Austria (in the fall) all hold
legislative elections this year. Croatia will elect a new parliament (by
September 22) and a president (in December), as will Lithuania, which will pick
its president and hold a constitutional referendum on May 12, and elect a new
parliament by October 6. Slovakia (expected in March) and Romania (by December)
both hold presidential votes. Look out for plenty of new faces at the European
Council’s round table this year.
END OF TORY
RULE? U.K. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak confirmed last month that he will be
calling a general election this year. The opposition Labour Party expects it in
May — and is forecast to win big and end the Conservatives’ 14-year reign.
COUNTING
DOWN: On November 5, you know you will be glued to the screen all night to
watch the U.S. presidential election results, state by state, waiting
apocalyptically to see whether incumbent Joe Biden or his likeliest rival
Donald Trump reaches the magic number of 270 Electoral College votes.
CRYSTAL
BALL: Is 2024 the year when democracy hits a tipping point and slides toward
autocracy? asks Nicholas Vinocur on our New Year’s Day front page. Belgium’s
make-or-break national election looms over its EU presidency, write Barbara
Moens, Camille Gijs and Pieter, while POLITICO’s Pro teams break down the
policy agenda facing the home team during the election countdown — part of a
comprehensive briefing shared with subscribers in December.
KYIV
SHIVERS: Europe’s consensus is that Ukraine will face an extremely difficult
year ahead, as U.S. support looks uncertain amid Trump’s political
brinkmanship. Eastern Europe is especially worried that his rhetoric would be
used by some in Western Europe as a pretext to turn military assistance for
Ukraine into possible attempts to negotiate with Russia.
This comes
as Russia piles the pressure on Ukraine, launching large-scale air attacks on
Friday that President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said killed 39 people. On Saturday,
Moscow claimed that Ukraine launched a series of drones and missiles against
Russia in “indiscriminate attacks” that killed 21 people, including two
children. Russia launched another wave of missiles on Sunday at Ukraine’s
second city of Kharkiv, Victor Jack reports.
EU VOWS TO
SUPPORT UKRAINE: “The Russian aggression against Ukraine was a sobering lesson.
It is our duty to continue our full support of Ukraine but also reform the
Union to be able to face the challenges of the future and prepare to welcome
new members to our family,” European Council President Charles Michel told
Playbook. (More of his 2024 wishes below).
“We must
not slip into ‘Ukraine fatigue’. This would be disastrous and would imperil
Europe’s entire security,” EU Trade Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis told
Playbook. Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis went further,
warning that Russia could take aim at NATO. “We are on the verge of repeating
historic mistakes. I am convinced that if we won’t defeat Russia now, that
means our chosen path is to suffer unimaginable and unnecessary losses before
we eventually decide it’s time to step up and win.”
BEYOND THE
WEST
CHINA’S
WATCHING TAIWAN: Your correspondent will be traveling to Taiwan this week to
report on the first major election of 2024: Taiwan’s presidential race on
January 13. Beijing is ratcheting up the pressure against frontrunner William
Lai, whom it accuses of being a secessionist despite his pledge not to declare
independence. Chinese President Xi Jinping said Sunday that reunification was
“inevitable.” Western diplomats fear that Beijing could escalate military
tensions — including gray-zone tactics and coercion — between election day and
the mid-May inauguration. Expect U.S. attention to focus there. Sign up to my
China Watcher newsletter for further updates and analysis.
PEOPLE
POWER: About 205 million voters in Indonesia will elect the successor to
outgoing President Joko Widodo, with a first round on Valentine’s Day and a
possible runoff on June 26. Meanwhile, India‘s 800 million-plus eligible voters
will take part in the general election between April and May. It’s less of a
guessing game: Narendra Modi is widely expected to stay on as prime minister.
AFRICA AND
LATAM: Algeria, Ghana, Namibia, Rwanda, South Africa and Tunisia will hold
elections this year, as will Mexico, Panama and Uruguay.
VOTE EARLY,
VOTE OFTEN: In Russia, President Vladimir Putin is seeking re-election in
mid-March. He’s set to win and begin what may well be another 12 years in the
top job, made possible by a constitutional amendment passed back in 2020.
In Belarus,
parliamentary elections take place on February 25. The opposition is either in
exile or in jail.
In Iran,
conservatives are gearing up to tighten their grip on power after the March 1
parliamentary elections. Reformists aren’t hopeful they can run. AFP has more.
In
Venezuela, where the presidential election will be held later this year,
opposition leader María Corina Machado is appealing against a 15-year ban on
holding public office imposed by Nicolás Maduro’s government. The ban, if
upheld, will disqualify her from contesting.
BERLAYMONT’S
NEW YEAR WISHES AND WORRIES
The EU’s
bigwigs shared their predictions and aspirations for 2024 with Playbook — and
few sound optimistic. Here’s what they said:
URSULA VON
DER LEYEN, European Commission President:
“First, a
strong Europe as a beacon of stability and prosperity, strengthened by free and
fair elections without disinformation and manipulation from abroad. Second, a
just and lasting peace in Ukraine and the Middle East. Third, further tangible
progress in the fight against global warming, which will ease the heavy burden
on future generations.”
CHARLES
MICHEL, European Council President:
“2024 will
bring about existential political events that will shape our societies and set
the course for the EU until the end of the decade. And as always, our citizens
will have a key role to play with the European elections.
“But after
we went through four existential crises in the past few years, we showed
leadership, action and unity — strengths we need to build on. These events also
showed us where we need to redouble our efforts: We need to strengthen our
economies, boost our industries, especially the defense sector, create more
jobs and above all, invest in our strategic autonomy.”
VALDIS
DOMBROVSKIS, EU trade commissioner:
“My biggest
wish is also my biggest concern: We should not lose the focus on Ukraine. Our
support must endure. If Russia is not stopped in Ukraine, it will go further.
It is not a message everyone wants to hear, but it is a certainty.
“Also on my
2024 wish list is that we conclude pending trade agreements — this would open
up major new economic opportunities, and allow us to engage more closely with
our partners on climate change and sustainability.”
MARGRETHE
VESTAGER, EU digital commissioner:
“Europe is
one of the most attractive places to live on the planet. At the same time, we
are living in a world with high risk and many uncertainties. In the coming
year, with a crucial European election ahead, I wish that we stay true to what
has brought us together this far.
“Our
response should be, first, to accelerate investments in our European digital
and green transitions; second, to deepen our Single Market; third, to turn our
European research and innovation into markets wins. That’s how we will keep
creating a good society in Europe, for everyone to call home.”
THIERRY
BRETON, EU internal market commissioner:
“In the
fifth year of the mandate — with a lot of work still to accomplish and of
course the European elections — in 2024, we have a particular responsibility to
explain and promote what we have achieved over the last few years to build a
more competitive, resilient and safe Europe, all while listening carefully to
our fellow citizens’ preoccupations and priorities for the next mandate.
“We must
continue to build and move forward as Europeans. Basically, there are two
possible paths: Fear or courage. Fear is the far-right. It’s a reflex that’s
been with us for decades. Fear of the economy: get out of the euro. Fear of
immigration: close Schengen. Fear of unemployment: close the borders. Courage
means working to achieve a common position among the 27, which strengthens each
individual, enabling them to carry weight in the logic of a global geopolitical
power.”
EU’S NEW
WOMAN IN DC
MISSION
IMPOSSIBLE: Jovita Neliupšienė begins her tenure today as the new EU Ambassador
to the U.S. She has this message to Washington: The U.S. cannot afford not to
work with Europe, given the geopolitical risks that abound.
In her
words: “Not only are the EU and U.S. stronger and safer when we act together
but so is the world,” she told Playbook prior to her departure. “In particular,
transatlantic support for Ukraine and standing up to autocracy are crucial. Our
strength and unity in addressing difficult situations means we cannot and must
not fail.”
Hinting at
China? As a former vice foreign minister, Neliupšienė dealt first hand with
Chinese trade bullying against Lithuania after it pursued closer ties with
Taiwan. “Those who favor disorder are watching and won’t hesitate to fill any
power vacuum,” she said, without naming names. “Values of freedom, human rights
and democracy are a backbone of transatlantic relations.”
What about
the US election? Neliupšienė wouldn’t let herself be drawn into polling
predictions, predictably. But she said: “Elections are one of the prerequisites
of democracy. We need to trust the democratic choice and put all our efforts in
building bridges and all possible ways of communication.”
Whoever the
next president? “Persistence,” she added, “is a powerful tool.”
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