London Playbook PM: Making excuses for Nigel

 

London Playbook PM: Making excuses for Nigel

BY EMILIO CASALICCHIO

JANUARY 3, 2024 6:01 PM CET

https://www.politico.eu/newsletter/london-playbook/london-playbook-pm-making-excuses-for-nigel/

POLITICO London Playbook

By EMILIO CASALICCHIO

 

Good afternoon.

 

WEDNESDAY CHEAT SHEET

— Nigel Farage kept Westminster guessing as he failed to turn up to the big Reform U.K. press conference.

 

— Leader Richard Tice insisted Reform will stand in all constituencies at the next election and target both the Conservatives and Labour.

 

— Former UKIP MEPs tell Playbook PM Reform needs Farage to make proper progress.

 

— The Lib Dems promised a Westminster wheeze to pile pressure on the government about calling a spring election.

 

— Conservative peer Shaun Bailey and anti-Conservative math pro Carol Vorderman are having a fight.

 

TOP OF THE NEWSLIST

SOMETHING MISSING: Reform U.K. Leader Richard Tice delivered some fun slides attacking his opponents this morning — but Nigel Farage was a no show.

 

A plague on both their houses: Tice said Rishi Sunak had failed on four of his five pledges (the IfG all but agrees in its own tracker) and warned against “Starmergeddon” if Labour gets into power — arguing the opposition would do all sorts of horrible things like increase regulations.

 

Big talk: He said the nation wanted to “punish the Tories for breaking Britain” and vowed no “special deals” on seats at the next election. Farage stood his troops down in Conservative held seats in 2019, don’t forget. “You’ve all broken Britain, you are all responsible,” Tice told Conservative MPs.

 

But but but: Farage himself was nowhere to be seen at the central London press conference — an issue Tice insisted wasn’t an issue. “A good poker player doesn’t show their hand too early,” he said, while admitting: “The more help Nigel is able to give in the election campaign, frankly, the better.”

 

Indeed: Conservatives aren’t too fussed about Reform unless Farage is involved, as he’s catnip for a certain cohort. So it was a relief to them he didn’t attend, and they’ll hope Tice’s attempts to land blows on immigration, high taxes and crime will fail, given some Tories in the red wall see these as their weak points.

 

The upshot: The continued will he/won’t he around Farage was the dominant theme of the event. And it got worse afterwards when Tice told GB News’s Christopher Hope in an interview Farage is not expected to stand for a seat.

 

Ouch: “If Nigel isn’t one of the candidates, it means he doesn’t believe they can win a seat,” former UKIP and then Brexit Party MEP Bill Etheridge told Playbook PM. “Nigel is lending a little support to them while keeping his options open.” (Tice dismissed questions about Farage mulling a move to the Tories.)

 

Just for good measure: Etheridge added that:”Reform seem to think they can win an election by spouting opinions on GB News into an echo chamber.”

 

Speaking of echo chambers: Others who hold Farage in high regard admit Reform will struggle to win more than a few protest votes without him. Jonathan Arnott — also a former UKIP and Brexit Party MEP, but neither a supporter or opponent of Reform — argued Tice needs fired-up grassroots activists and a clear singular cause.

 

If Tice builds it, Farage will come: “We need to know that Reform has a soul, that it means something,” he told Playbook PM. “Nigel Farage is savvy. His experience can guide Reform through a general election, but he’ll only put his head above the parapet if he’s convinced Reform can become a long term major player in British politics.”

 

Farage will come regardless: Another former UKIP MEP, Patrick O’Flynn, wrote on his Substack this week Farage will “take the helm of Reform” and until then will “be free to launch salvo after salvo against this Tory shower on GB News every evening.” (h/t Alex Wickham.)

 

It’s not all about the Tories: Don’t forget, Tice was explicit that Reform is targeting Labour at the next election too. But the received wisdom is the group poses a greater threat to the Conservative vote, splitting it and “letting Labour in by the back door,” as polling guru John Curtice put it to the Tele’s Dominic Penna.

 

Driving it home: “A vote for Reform will only strengthen Labour’s hand — that means a vote for Labour’s £28 billion a year spending splurge, driving up taxes for hardworking families,” Conservative Chair Richard Holden said in a statement.

 

Fried Tice: The Reform leader will appear on Radio 4 at 5.30 p.m. after a whole string of interviews this afternoon, and is also due to be on Newsnight tonight

 

ON THE SUBJECT OF ALL THINGS FARAGE: Former UKIP Leader Henry Bolton (readers will be forgiven for not remembering who that is) was blocked from becoming a Conservative member, Chris Hope revealed this afternoon. Bolton later appeared on GB News to discuss the matter.

 

OH DAMN, WE BURIED THE LEAD: Playbook PM almost forgot to mention that the massive, unmissable, groundbreaking news from the Tice presser was of course that Ben Habib will be the Reform candidate in the upcoming Wellingborough by-election.

 

Who dat, readers ask? An ex-Brexit Party MEP and commercial property tycoon.

 

LIB DEM LAND

LEST WE FORGET: Lib Dem leader Ed Davey was out and about in southern seats this morning, unveiling this fetching poster about being Rishi Sunak’s removals man in the so called Blue Wall. Lib Dems in orange jumpsuits and removals boxes added to the mise-en-scène.

 

Latest cunning plan: He told PA the Lib Dems will propose a return of the fixed term parliament act next week, allowing MPs to dictate the next election date instead of the prime minister. Don’t go out and get a new hat for its royal assent.

 

Calling the shots: “People are fed up of waiting for a general election, they want change,” Davey said while wearing an orange high vis jacket, accusing the prime minister of “clinging on to power, desperate for something to turn up.” The Lib Dem leader wants the election on May 2, which is “when it should be,” apparently. Clip here.

 

After all that: Ed popped into the poster-sporting van for a drive around Surrey, with stops in both Jeremy Hunt and Michael Gove’s seats this afternoon.

 

Getting a telling off: Conservative chair Richard Holden said: “The Liberal Democrats’ short-term political game playing does not address the priorities of the British people.”

 

More calling the shots: PolHome’s Caitlin Doherty reports local Lib Dems have business-like KPIs to meet, including numbers of doors knocked, in order to unlock election funding from HQ. “If you want to win you’ve got to prove yourself, and then you get more HQ resource,” a Lib Dem “source” told her.

 

Local angle: The Lib Dems also makes page 4 of the Standard this afternoon with its sums on 550,000 more Londoners being dragged into income tax as a result of frozen thresholds.