segunda-feira, 7 de dezembro de 2015

Climate skeptics feel the chill in Paris


Climate skeptics feel the chill in Paris

Summit negotiators say they’re ignoring the doubters. That’s a change from the past.

By SARA STEFANINI AND ANDREW RESTUCCIA 12/8/15, 5:30 AM CET Updated 12/8/15, 6:37 AM CET

LE BOURGET, France — It’s not easy being a climate skeptic in Paris these days.

Even countries where climate change doubters traditionally sat in the upper echelons of government — Canada, Australia, the United States, Russia — diplomats have moved beyond questioning global warming to debating what, and how much, to do about it.

That leaves little interest in the remaining outliers at the COP21 summit, which is due to end later this week.

America’s conservative Heartland Institute drew a crowd of no more than a few dozen to a Monday event dubbed, “bringing climate realism to Paris.” Republican Senator Jim Inhofe, the most vocal climate denier in the U.S. Congress, isn’t expected to attend this year, after jetting to a string of past United Nation climate summits to taunt delegates and preach his gospel that global warming is a hoax.

Even the businesses trying to get in on the climate change action, by touting natural gas or Saudi Arabian solar power, have been relegated to a separate tent about a 15-minute walk from the Blue Zone where negotiations are taking place.

“I don’t know anyone who is taking them seriously,” Alden Meyer, director of strategy and policy for the Union of Concerned Scientists and a long-time COP observer, said of skeptics and deniers.

It’s one thing to come to the COP21 to debate the way countries make and meet their voluntary emissions reduction pledges, or whether they adopt carbon pricing or nuclear energy or other possible solutions, Meyer added.

“But if you want to come here and deny the problem, you’re not going to get anyone to hear you out. There’s no delegation here that is denying that this problem is here and we need to take action,” he said.

That hasn’t stopped some of the most prominent outliers from dropping by.

Among them is Bjorn Lomborg, who calls himself a “climate policy skeptic,” rather than outright denier. Lomborg, a Danish academic, says that global warming is happening, but argues that the world’s strategy of reducing greenhouse gas emissions will fail to make a dent, and will come at a crippling economic cost.

He is a divisive figure, whose very mention on Twitter draws fierce attacks from climate and environmental advocates who point to the long list of studies discrediting his research.

But Lomborg didn’t come to Paris to influence the negotiations directly. His focus is on public opinion.

“I meet with a lot of people that you’d probably think would hate me,” he told POLITICO, naming a few well-known NGO leaders.

“Of course, my main point for being here is exactly to make sure that we don’t just hear the standard, sanitized version of what the climate negotiations are. So my main purpose is to meet with journalists,” he said.

Asked if he planned to meet with government negotiators, he said: “I’ve said hi to some of them,” and added that their priority is to get an agreement, regardless of what it says.

“So in some ways my advice to them would be phenomenally unhelpful inside the negotiating halls, but it’s phenomenally useful for everyone else to be reminded ‘Oh, wait, are we actually going down the right track?’”

‘What the science says’

A recurring theme before and during this year’s COP21 summit is that climate change is irrefutable — and that record-setting heat waves, cyclones, droughts and floods prove it is already inflicting serious damage.

The U.K.’s Met Office announced in November that the global temperature had reached 1 degree Celsius above pre-industrial levels this year, for the first time. Governments agreed at the 2010 summit in Cancun to keep the temperature rise “to a maximum” of 2 degrees, and adjusted the goal to “no more than 2 degrees” a year later in Durban.

“Nobody questions what the science says,” Miguel Arias Cañete, the European Union’s climate action and energy commissioner, told reporters on Monday. “If we don’t question what the science says, why don’t we follow the pathway science gives us?”

That’s a change from previous COPs. Just before the start of the 2009 Copenhagen summit, a group of climate change skeptics seized on emails leaked from the University of East Anglia, which they interpreted as indicating that scientists were lying about global warming and trying to cover up a drop in world temperatures. The fuss caused disarray at the Copenhagen COP, but the claims were later disproved by a number of scientific organizations.

Still, at the time the hackers weren’t alone in dismissing the science on global warming.

Australia’s Tony Abbott called it “crap” during the first few days of the Copenhagen summit, before he became prime minister in 2013. Canada’s former Prime Minister Stephen Harper acknowledged that climate change was a problem but questioned whether it was caused by carbon dioxide emissions. Both lost their posts earlier this year to opponents who are more predisposed to a farther-reaching emissions deal.

Negotiators in Paris say they’re not paying any attention to the skeptics.

“You will still have climate deniers. But that number is shrinking in the face of overwhelming scientific and physical evidence and that’s a good thing,” James Fletcher, Saint Lucia’s minister for sustainable development, energy, science and technology, said in an interview. “I think it’s difficult for these climate skeptics to claim any legitimacy.”

Wanted: Climate criminals

Legitimacy was what the Heartland Institute was looking for on Monday.

While tens of thousands of government delegates, reporters and observers traveled to this suburb north of Paris for the eighth day of COP21 negotiations, the institute held its “Day of Examining the Data” conference in the city center, featuring talks from a string of climate skeptics and premiering a documentary hosted by one of the most prominent ones, Marc Morano, a former senior aide to Inhofe.

“People are very annoyed that we’re even here,” Morano, who has been attending U.N. climate summits for more than a decade, said in an interview. “They see us as the turd in the punch bowl. That’s the bottom line.”

Activists have even been petitioning to get his COP21 credentials revoked, he said. Indeed, the campaign group Avaaz has been hanging “Wanted” posters all over the city, bashing “the seven most insidious fossil fuel lobbyists in Paris,” including Morano and Lomborg.

But Morano seems to relish his role. “People are sort of just stunned,” he said of his presence.

Lomborg, likewise, sees himself as the lone voice of reason in a throng of people barreling in the wrong direction, but acknowledges that his message may be inconvenient.

“I’m the guy who’s saying, when we’re all going to the North Pole, maybe we should’ve gone to Spain instead,” he said.

Critics, however, are unmoved by the skeptics’ arguments.

“I think what Senator Inhofe did in the past worked tactically,” Brian Schatz, who was part of a delegation of 10 Democratic senators visiting Paris, told POLITICO. “But the idea that one U.S. senator could come here and hold a news conference and stop global momentum, I think is pretty far-fetched at this point.”

Inhofe — famous for tossing a snowball across the Senate floor and declaring climate change “the greatest hoax ever perpetrated against the American people” — has not entirely ruled out a last-minute visit, according to his spokeswoman.

Like Lomborg, however, his presence may not make much of a splash in the final days of negotiations.

“I really haven’t experienced their presence at all here,” said Meyer. “I don’t even know if they’re in the building.”

This article was first published on POLITICO Pro.

Authors:


Sara Stefanini and Andrew Restuccia  

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