Ukraine: Mr Putin's new line

Ukraine: Mr Putin's new line

His may well be the same as they were. What has shifted is the understanding, on both sides, of relative weakness and strength

Editorial

The Guardian, Thursday 8 May 2014 / http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/may/08/ukraine-putin-new-line-editorial

President Vladimir Putin has changed the tone of the international argument over Ukraine, but it remains to be seen whether he has really changed the terms on which Russia has so far insisted when discussing that country's future. But that change of tone is in itself welcome. Soft words pave the way for diplomacy, just as hard words block its path. It will take a day or two to assess whether or not Mr Putin will actually move his troops back from the Ukrainian border, and whether his call to the rebels in the eastern part of the country to postpone the referendum they had planned for this weekend will be heeded.

Both depend in any case, in the Russian leader's understanding, on a response from Kiev to his proposal that talks be held between the interim government there and the self- proclaimed authorities in the eastern cities and towns where groups calling variously for autonomy, independence or incorporation into Russia have secured footholds. Kiev's initial response was predictably negative: these so-called republics are illegal, so is their referendum, so what basis could there be for talks? Meanwhile, operations to dislodge the groups who have seized public buildings and detained or expelled officials will continue.

There are of course ways to finesse this position without conceding any matters of principle if the Ukrainian government, and its American and European supporters, wish to do so. Talks could be arranged that simply leave the legal status of the eastern insurgents undefined. Military operations could be slowed down. They could even be stopped, but without any commitment regarding a possible resumption, or tied to the handover of public buildings, as originally agreed at Geneva, and to deep withdrawals on the Russian side of the border. That might, if one wants to be very hopeful, lead to a situation in which the presidential elections, due on 25 May, could be held without the disruption, or mass abstention, in the east which could otherwise wreck them. Ukraine would then have a president who, even if everything else was still unsettled, had a legitimacy deriving from an orderly contest in all parts of the country.

Mr Putin's aims may well be the same as they were. What has shifted is the understanding, on both sides, of relative weakness and strength. It has become even clearer that Mr Putin does not want to invade or to annex eastern Ukraine. Nor does he want to be in a position where he has to reject calls for military help. Equally, we see Kiev has weak support in parts of the east, and its security forces are inadequate or estranged. People are confused and frightened, many trusting, it can be speculated, neither Kiev nor Moscow. Time, then, for a cautious but at the same time speedy exploration of the Kremlin's new line.