Macron’s
stunned troops see no good way out of France’s impasse
New prime
minister? New elections? Neither would seem to defuse France’s ticking debt
bomb.
August
29, 2025 4:01 am CET
By
Pauline de Saint Remy
PARIS —
President Emmanuel Macron’s allies don’t seem to have any good answers as to
what happens after the almost certain fall of the government of Prime Minister
François Bayrou in the Sept. 8 parliamentary vote of confidence.
The names
of Armed Forces Minister Sébastien Lecornu and Justice Minister Gérald Darmanin
are emerging in the chatter as potential successors to the poisoned chalice of
the premiership, but what would a new recruit really solve? A new PM will be
ensnared in exactly the same quagmire.
French
politics will still be too internally riven to pass vital deficit-slashing
reforms, despite Bayrou’s Cassandra-like warnings that France could be headed
toward a Greek-style debt crisis if it sits on its hands and doesn’t implement
an unpopular €43.8 billion budget squeeze.
So how
about another snap election? If Macron calls one, the political landscape could
still be mired in exactly the same impasse — but the blame after a vote would
more obviously fall on him rather than on his prime minister. And all that
time, the financial markets will be running out of patience regarding France’s
ability to put its books in order.
All in
all, a state of shock grips elected officials, aides and advisers from the
various parties that support France’s minority government.
“It’s a
tough blow for the president,” said one minister’s political adviser who, like
others in this piece, was granted anonymity to speak candidly about the
political chaos. They noted that a day of mass protests, potentially shutting
the country down, was in the offing only two days after Bayrou’s expected exit.
“A
political crisis on Sept. 8, a social crisis on Sept. 10. That’s a regime
crisis, isn’t it?”
New man
for the Matignon
Macron’s
centrists seem to be clutching at straws. The first signals coming out of the
Elysée Palace seemed to indicate the president is not considering dissolving
parliament and going for another election.
Instead,
Macron is thought to be considering tapping the young, center-right Lecornu to
lead the government. Someone close to Macron said Justice Minister Darmanin,
who has long eyed the premiership, is also a candidate, but doesn’t want to
inherit what appears to be a suicide mission.
Bother
Lecornu and Darmanin originally hailed from the conservative Les Républicains
party and have been with Macron since 2017. Lecornu is closer to the president,
and Macron almost nominated him before Bayrou imposed himself as premier. He’s
seen as more biddable, while Darmanin is highly ambitious and more
independent-minded.
An
individual close to Lecornu said the 39-year-old privately boasts of enjoying a
privileged relationship with Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally, while at
the same time insisting he could lead a coalition government of both the right
and the left.
But will
that relationship with the National Rally help him succeed in the bloody budget
arena where both Bayrou and former Prime Minister Michel Barnier failed?
Many
centrists say no: Nothing indicates that either Le Pen or the socialists have
any intention of supporting him any more than they did Bayrou.
“There is
no scenario, no new casting choice that can resolve the crisis,” the
ministerial adviser said.
For the
conservative Les Républicains supporting Bayrou’s minority government, the
suggestion of Lecornu is yet another example of an unfailingly optimistic
president who refuses to accept defeat. Macron himself reportedly tried to
downplay the crisis at Wednesday’s weekly meeting of the Council of Ministers.
“He can’t
help trying to regain control,” said a dejected member of Les Républicains.
“It’s his natural inclination.”
Even a
technocratic government of experts to solve the budget mess — a rather
Italian-sounding fix — would need to navigate a splintered National Assembly
filled with lawmakers looking head to key municipal elections next year and the
presidential election in 2027.
Unappetizing
election
Sending
the French back to the ballot box, however, also carries its own set of risks
for a president worried about his legacy. It was, after all, the surprise snap
vote following European elections last summer that shunted France into its
current deadlock and irrevocably damaged Macron’s reputation.
Polling
shows voters could easily deliver another hung parliament in any election in
the coming weeks or months.
“The
worst for him is a dissolution that doesn’t work, because then he’s the one who
gets the boot,” another ministerial adviser said.
That
doesn’t mean it’s impossible, however. Before Monday, Macron had repeatedly
ruled out calling new elections before the end of his term, but the Elysée
insists he will not deprive himself of a constitutional power .
“Mystery
is part of the presidential strategy,” said a close associate of Macron.
Bayrou
for president
Bayrou’s
camp, meanwhile, remains stunned by the speed at which his fate was sealed by
opposition lawmakers — especially the far right — and is struggling to convince
people the situation is under control.
One
individual in the prime minister’s entourage said he hoped Le Pen and the
National Rally would reconsider their position after 48 hours. The hope was
that Bayrou’s team could do the dirty work of balancing France’s books before
2027 while also avoiding the danger of a legislative election in which Le Pen
would be barred from running due to her embezzlement conviction.
Bayrou
for now appears to be waging a battle in the court of public opinion, giving a
flurry of speeches and interviews in the hope of leaving the Matignon Palace,
the prime ministerial residence, with his head held high.
It has
the air of a campaign strategy for 2027, and Bayrou has long aspired to the
Elysée.
“At least
he will have earned his stripes as a presidential candidate,” one Macron
supporter said.
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