Israel turning against Turkey?

 

Israel turning against Turkey?

As of March 4, 2026, relations between Israel and Turkey have reached a critical low point, with Israeli leadership increasingly labeling Turkey a primary regional threat. This shift follows years of deteriorating ties, now exacerbated by the fallout of the regional conflict involving Iran and Syria.

 

Key Developments in Escalating Tensions

"Turkey is the New Iran": In February 2026, former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett—expected to be a major contender in upcoming elections—formally declared Turkey an existential threat, comparing its regional ambitions to those of Iran.

Syrian Flashpoint: Israel has accused Turkey of attempting to establish a "protectorate" in Syria following the fall of the Assad regime in late 2024. Israeli officials have expressed "grave concern" over Turkish military entrenchment near their borders.

Military Preparation: An Israeli government advisory committee (the Nagel Committee) recently warned that Israel must actively prepare for a potential direct military confrontation with Turkey.

Trade and Airspace Bans: Turkey has maintained a total trade embargo against Israel since 2024 and continues to restrict its airspace for Israeli government and military flights.

Support for Rivals: Tensions are further stoked by Turkey's hosting of Hamas leadership and Israel’s strengthening of ties with Turkey's regional rivals, including Greece, Cyprus, and various Kurdish factions.

NATO Friction: Turkey's status as a NATO member complicates the situation, as analysts suggest this membership may no longer provide the shield Ankara expects against potential Israeli actions.

Energy Security: Despite the hostility, a critical link remains: Israel's oil supply from Azerbaijan still flows through Turkey's Ceyhan port, giving Ankara a significant non-military lever of retaliation.

Wider Conflict: Turkish media and some officials increasingly view Turkey as Israel's "next target" following the weakening of Iran’s military capabilities in 2026.