Trump’s
Greenland threats push Europe toward divorcing America
With NATO
thrown into question, some officials see the “coalition of the willing” as the
basis for a new alliance without the U.S.
Analysis
January
19, 2026 4:00 am CET
By Tim
Ross
LONDON —
As with many failing relationships, it’s been a story of arguments, unspoken
tensions and trying to keep up appearances in public since Donald Trump
reentered the White House a year ago.
But for
many European governments, including America’s longest-standing and most loyal
allies, Trump’s threat of punitive tariffs against anyone who tries to stop him
taking Greenland was the final straw. Divorce, they believe, is now inevitable.
In
private, dismayed European officials describe Trump’s rush to annex the
sovereign Danish territory as “crazy” and “mad,” asking if he is caught up in
his “warrior mode” after his Venezuela adventure — and saying he deserves
Europe’s toughest retaliation for what many see as a clear and unprovoked
“attack” against allies on the other side of the Atlantic.
“I think
it is perceived as one step too far,” said one European diplomat, who like
others was granted anonymity to speak candidly. “Europe has been criticized for
being weak against Trump. There is some truth in that, but there are red
lines.”
Senior
European officials increasingly believe it’s time to face the truth that
Trump’s America is no longer a reliable trade partner, still less a dependable
security ally, and urgently look to the future. “There is a shift in U.S.
policy and in many ways it is permanent,” according to a senior official with a
European government. “Waiting it out is not a solution. What needs to be done
is an orderly and coordinated movement to a new reality.”
That
coordination has already begun, as has the big conversation about what comes
next.
Barring a
radical shift in the approach of the United States, this process seems likely
to end in a radical reshaping of the West that would upend the global balance
of power. The implications range from transatlantic economic damage as trade
tensions rise, to security risks as Europe attempts to defend itself without
American help before it is fully ready to do so.
There
would likely be costs to the United States as well, such as in its ability to
project hard power into Africa and the Middle East without access to the
network of bases, airstrips and logistical support that Europe currently
provides.
A
post-U.S. future
Alongside
all the talk of retaliation by targeting U.S. trade, diplomats and government
officials in national capitals are also considering what a long-term split from
Washington might bring.
For most
the prospect is a painful one, ending 80 years of peaceful cooperation, mutual
support and profitable trade and dealing a death blow to NATO in its current
form. Plenty of governments want to salvage what they can, while Italy’s hard
right leader, Giorgia Meloni, is trying to rebuild relations.
But for
some government officials, a post-U.S. future for Western allies isn’t hard to
imagine.
For
starters, European states, including those not in the EU like Britain and
Norway, have spent much of Trump’s second term working in an increasingly
effective group that already operates without America: the so-called coalition
of the willing to support Ukraine.
National
security advisers from 35 governments are in regular contact, meeting
frequently online and in person, as well as interacting via less formal text
messaging. They are accustomed to seeking multilateral solutions in a world
where Trump is a big part of the problem.
Levels of
trust in these circles are generally high, according to people familiar with
the way the group operates. Nor is it just at the level of officials: National
leaders are themselves rolling up their sleeves and working in intimate new
groupings.
Leaders
including the U.K.’s Keir Starmer, France’s Emmanuel Macron and Germany’s
Friedrich Merz, as well as European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen,
Alexander Stubb of Finland and Meloni of Italy regularly text with each other —
often in the same group chat.
Texting
leaders
Over the
past year they have developed a well-drilled routine of exchanging messages
whenever Trump does something wild and potentially damaging. “When things start
moving quickly, it’s hard to do the coordination, and this group [chat] is
really effective,” said one person familiar with the arrangement. “It tells you
a lot about the personal relationships and how they matter.”
The
“informal but active” arrangement is known as the Washington Group, after the
collection of European leaders who visited the White House with Ukraine’s
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy last August.
Their
approach for the past year has mostly been to keep calm and respond to his
policy actions rather than taking the bait of his provocative words. That ethos
has oiled the wheels of the Ukraine peace process, with the coalition of the
willing closing in on a framework for a peace plan that the U.S. is signed up
to — including American security guarantees for Ukraine. This marks a
significant achievement given that Trump earlier ruled out the U.S. military
playing a role.
But
Trump’s hell-raising over Greenland has now tipped the balance.
Gone is
the softly-softly approach to the American president’s threats. Even Starmer,
normally the most circumspect of leaders, called out the president’s tariff
threat as “wrong,” including, apparently, in a direct call with Trump on
Sunday.
The
Greenland crisis has focused minds on the question of how to move on without
America by their side.
“The
coalition of the willing started as being about Ukraine,” said another
diplomat. “But it has created very close ties between some of the key people in
the capitals. They have been building up trust and also aptitude to work
together. They know each other by name and it’s easy to reach out and to send
texts.”
Who needs
NATO, anyway?
This
format could potentially become the seedbed for a new security alliance in an
era when the U.S. no longer supports NATO and European security. A new
arrangement wouldn’t exclude cooperation with America, but nor would it take it
for granted.
Also in
the text chats with the Washington Group leaders is Zelenskyy himself, which
brings another intriguing idea into the mix. Ukraine is by far the most
militarized country among those represented, with a huge army, a highly
sophisticated drone production industry, and more expertise in the realities of
fighting a war than anyone.
While
Ukraine has long sought membership in NATO, that now seems less of a prize than
it once did, as America’s promises to underpin any security guarantees grow
less convincing by the day.
If
Ukraine’s military might were to be included, when added to that of France,
Germany, Poland and the U.K., among others, the potential armed power of the
coalition of the willing would be vast, and would include both nuclear and
non-nuclear states.
Although
Europe’s need to defend itself with less American support is an old topic of
conversation, recent days have seen a flurry of initiatives and headlines from
Brussels. Officially, the EU has resolved to be able to defend itself by 2030.
European
Defense Commissioner Andrius Kubilius a week ago proposed a standing EU army of
100,000 personnel and revived the idea of a European Security Council of around
12 members, including the U.K. Von der Leyen touted a new European Security
Strategy, though few details have yet been provided.
There is
wide agreement that these conversations about a new European security
architecture need to happen, and fast. EU leaders will meet in person for an
emergency summit in the coming days to calibrate a response to Trump’s
Greenland threats, though the discussion may range far wider than that.
With
Trump due to attend the World Economic Forum in Davos, there is also a
possibility of face-to-face talks between the European and American sides.
After
speaking to Merz, Macron, Starmer and NATO chief Mark Rutte, von der Leyen said
on Sunday that Europeans would “stand firm” in their commitment to protect
Greenland. “We will face these challenges to our European solidarity with
steadiness and resolve,” she said.
Given the
current moment, some creative thinking will also be required.
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