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Explainer
Runoffs,
reruns and rightwingers: Europe prepares for electoral ‘super Sunday’
Millions
will cast votes in crucial contests in Romania, Poland and Portugal
Sam Jones in
Madrid, Jon Henley in Bucharest and Jakub Krupa in Warsaw
Wed 14 May
2025 18.20 CEST
Millions of
voters in Romania, Poland and Portugal will cast their ballots this weekend in
an electoral “super Sunday” that will determine the course of their democracies
at a time of heightened political, commercial and economic tensions.
In Romania,
the far-right candidate is the frontrunner in a presidential runoff, while in a
deeply polarised Poland’s first-round vote, a liberal, a conservative and a
far-right candidate are vying to become president.
In Portugal,
which is holding a snap legislative election just 14 months after the last
vote, the status quo looks set to continue. Here’s what you need to know.
Hasn’t
Romania already had a presidential election?
Yes. The
original vote last year was annulled and its shock far-right winner disbarred
amid widespread concerns over Russian interference and other irregularities. So
the vote on Sunday is the second round of the second presidential election in
six months.
This time an
ultranationalist, EU-critical Trump admirer is in a run-off against a centrist
independent in a vote that analysts have called the most important in the
country’s post-communist history.
George
Simion, 38, who sports Maga caps, promotes a socially conservative agenda and
wants the “Melonisation” of Europe and to halt military aid to Ukraine, won the
first round comfortably with 41% of the vote, nearly double the score of his
rival.
The
second-placed Nicușor Dan, the 55-year-old mayor of Bucharest, has cast the
runoff as a fight between “a pro-western and an anti-western direction for
Romania”. Polls show the gap between the two narrowing, with one putting them
neck and neck.
Riding a
wave of voter frustration with Romania’s mainstream parties, Simion has
promised, if he wins, to appoint as prime minister Călin Georgescu, the winner
of last November’s cancelled vote.
The
first-round defeat of the ruling Social Democrat-Liberal coalition’s candidate
triggered the resignation of the pro-European prime minister, Marcel Ciolacu,
and the de facto collapse of the government. A new coalition must now be
formed.
Analysts
have said a Simion victory could lead to the country swinging sharply to the
right. A confidence-and-supply deal between Simion’s AUR party, the second
largest in parliament, and Coalacu’s Social Democrats is seen as a post-vote
possibility, as are snap elections.
The ballot
is being closely watched by the EU, which could do without another disruptor in
the region alongside Hungary and Slovakia. Also interested are nationalists –
including in Washington – who accused Bucharest of trampling on democracy after
the original vote was cancelled and Georgescu barred from standing in the
rerun.
Romania’s
president has a semi-executive role with considerable powers over foreign
policy, national security, defence spending and judicial appointments. They
also represent the country, a Nato member, on the international stage and can
veto important EU votes.
Sounds
pretty high-stakes. How about in Poland?
Also
high-stakes, certainly, at least, for Donald Tusk’s government. Sunday’s vote
will narrow down the list of contenders to be the country’s next president, a
role that carries some influence over foreign and defence policy, as well as
robust powers to veto legislation passed by parliament.
Since 2023,
the country has been governed by Tusk’s Civic Coalition, an ideologically
diverse and politically fragile alliance of pro-democratic parties. Its central
promise has been to reverse the controversial and expansive changes pursued
during the eight years of rule by the national-populist Law and Justice (PiS)
party.
But the
government’s ability to deliver on these promises remained hampered by the veto
power vested in the president, a position held since 2015 by Andrzej Duda, a
close political ally of the ousted administration and a firm supporter of
Donald Trump.
Winning the
presidential race would consolidate the government’s position and could help it
fulfil some of its liberal promises on social issues such as abortion and
LGBTQ+ rights.
Having
consistently led the polls, Rafał Trzaskowski, the 53-year-old centrist mayor
of Warsaw and a senior member of the Civic Coalition, is the candidate to beat.
His main
rival is a 42-year-old conservative, Karol Nawrocki, who is formally
independent but endorsed by PiS. The previously little-known historian hopes to
offer a fresh face and a break with the populist-right government’s polarising
legacy while sticking to its core messages on sovereignty, illegal migration
and frustration with green policies.
Trzaskowski
and Nawrocki are almost certain to win the top two positions and go through to
a runoff on 1 June.
Sławomir
Mentzen, 38, a leader of the far-right Confederation party, is the outside
candidate, who briefly challenged Nawrocki for second place but has faded over
the past month.
Presenting
himself as a spokesperson for a younger generation disenchanted with mainstream
politics, he campaigns on a ticket of radical deregulation and tax cuts. An
outspoken critic of the EU and opponent of liberalising migration, LGBTQ
rightsand abortion laws, he is believed to be positioning himself for the 2027
parliamentary elections.
What about
in Portugal?
This one is
expected to bring fewer fireworks. Portugal is heading to the polls for its
third snap general election in three years. The centre-right prime minister,
Luís Montenegro, triggered Sunday’s vote in response to growing questions over
his family’s business activities.
Montenegro,
the leader of the Democratic Alliance (AD) platform that has governed Portugal
since its narrow victory in last year’s election, has come under growing
scrutiny relating to a data protection consultancy that he founded in 2021 and
which he transferred to his wife and sons the following year.
Faced with
questions over possible conflicts of interest, Montenegro – who has denied any
wrongdoing or ethical breaches – staged a confidence vote in his administration
in March, saying he wanted“to end the atmosphere of permanent insinuations and
intrigues”. But he lost the vote and a fresh election was called.
Recent polls
suggest a similar result to last time, putting the AD on about 33%, the
opposition Socialist party (PS) on 26% and the far-right Chega party on 17%.
Montenegro
appears likely to once again fall short of a majority – even if he strikes a
deal with the small Liberal Initiative party, which is polling at about 6% –
and will struggle to govern, especially if the PS makes good on its threats to
oppose his legislative agenda.
Although
Montenegro has maintained his blanket ban on any deals with Chega, his
government has been accused of pandering to the far right after it announced
the expulsion of 18,000 irregular migrants during the election campaign. There
has also been speculation that Montenegro’s own Social Democratic party could
replace him with someone more amenable to working with Chega should he fail to
deliver on Sunday.
Last time
round, the AD won 80 seats to the PS’s 78, while Chega, which is led by the
former TV football pundit André Ventura, enjoyed a surge in support and
increased its seat count from 12 to 50.
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