Rafal
Kazimierz Trzaskowski leads the polls in the first round of the Polish
presidential election
Elections in
Europe
Corinne
Deloy
29 April
2025
Corinne Deloy
Author of
the European Elections Monitor (EEM) for the Robert Schuman Foundation and
project manager at the Institute for Political Studies (Sciences Po).
The Poles
are heading to the ballot box to elect Andrzej Duda's (Law and Justice, PiS)
successor as President of the Republic. Duda, who has served two terms, is not
eligible to run again. If no candidate is elected on 18 May, a second round of
voting will take place two weeks later, on 1 June, between the two candidates
who came out ahead in the first round.
This
presidential election could spell the end of the PiS's reign. Although the
party lost power in the parliamentary elections on 15 October 2023, which saw
the victory of the Civic Coalition led by Donald Tusk's Civic Platform (PO), it
retained the presidency, its last bastion. The Civic Coalition also won the
last European elections on 9 June 2024, with 37.06% of the vote and 21 seats in
the Strasbourg parliament. The United Right, a right-wing alliance led by the
PiS, came second with 36.16% and 20 seats.
Poland is
currently experiencing a difficult period of cohabitation between President
Andrzej Duda and Prime Minister Donald Tusk. The latter repeats that Andrzej
Duda's presence at the head of state is preventing him from implementing the
reforms he promised during his election campaign. It should be noted that in
Poland, every law passed by parliament must be approved by the president, who
has the right of veto. However, the Sejm, the lower house of parliament, can
override the president's veto by a three-fifths majority in a vote in which at
least half of the members must be present. However, the current majority does
not have enough votes to override a presidential veto.
Andrzej Duda
has vetoed four laws (including one giving free access to the morning-after
pill and another recognising Silesian as one of the country's minority
languages) and has referred 74 others to the Constitutional Court. The head of
state has also blocked several administrative appointments that required his
approval to be validated.
While the
PiS would like the presidential election to be a referendum on Donald Tusk's
government, the Prime Minister wants to make it a referendum on the previous
administration, i.e. the PiS's eight years in power. ‘Either Law and Justice
will find itself on a path that will lead it back to power, or it will be the
end of Law and Justice as we know it,’ said Andrzej Bobinski, director of the
Polityka think tank. ‘What is at stake is the future of Donald Tusk's
government and how long it can continue to lead Poland,’ said Aleks Szczerbiak,
professor of political science at the University of Sussex.
It is clear
that a victory for Karol Tadeusz Nawrocki, the candidate supported by the PiS,
would be a major obstacle for Donald Tusk.
Andrzej
Duda's second term will end on 6 August.
The
Candidates
13 are
candidates for the presidency of the Republic:
- Rafal
Kazimierz Trzaskowski (Civic Platform, PO), mayor of Warsaw since 2018 and
former Minister of Administration and Digitisation (2013-2014). He is also
supported by Solidarity, the largest trade union;
- Karol
Tadeusz Nawrocki, supported by the main opposition party, Law and Justice
(PiS). Former director of the Second World War Museum, he currently heads the
Institute of National Remembrance (IPN), which is responsible for prosecuting
Nazi and Soviet crimes against Poles;
- Slawomir
Jerzy Mentzen, president of the libertarian New Hope (NN) party and member of
parliament. He is the candidate of Confederation (K), a far-right alliance
comprising his party and the National Movement (RN), the ultra-nationalist
party of Krzysztof Bosak;
- Szymon
Franciszek Holownia, president of the centrist Poland 2050 (PL2050) party,
member of parliament;
- Magdalena
Agnieszka Biejat (independent), senator. She is supported by the Left (L)
alliance, which includes New Left (NL), the Socialist Party (PPS) and the
Labour Union (UP);
- Joanna
Senyszyn (independent), supported by the Democratic Left Alliance (SLD), former
Member of Parliament (2001-2009 and 2019-2023) and former Member of the
European Parliament (2009-2014);
- Maciej
Maciak, founder and leader of the Movement for Prosperity and Peace (RDiP),
journalist;
- Grzegorz
Michal Braun, president of the far-right monarchist party, the Confederation of
the Cross (KKP), MEP;
- Artur
Bartoszewicz (independent), lecturer at the Warsaw School of Economics;
- Marek
Jakubiak, president of the right-wing Federation for the Republic (FdR) party,
member of parliament;
- Marek
Marian Woch, leader of the Non-Partisan Local Government Activists (BS)
- Adrian
Tadeusz Zandberg (Together, Razem), member of parliament;
- Krzysztof
Stanowski (independent), sports journalist.
According to
the latest opinion poll conducted by the United Surveys opinion institute and
published on 23 April, Rafal Kazimierz Trzaskowski is well ahead in the first
round of the European elections with 31.7% of the vote, followed by Karol
Tadeusz Nawrocki with 27.6%. Slawomir Jerzy Mentzen is in third place with
11.3%. The far-right candidate is particularly popular among young voters:
nearly one in two (44%) plan to vote for him on 18 May.
Szymon
Franciszek Holownia is expected to win 6.60% of the vote and Magdalena
Agnieszka Biejat 5.60%. The eight other candidates are expected to win less
than 4% of the vote each.
The
Electoral Campaign
Rafal
Kazimierz Trzaskowski was nominated as a candidate for the presidential
election on 22 November. An unsuccessful candidate in the last election, he
lost by a narrow margin to Andrzej Duda in the second round on 12 July 2020
(422,385 votes separated the two candidates out of a total of 20,458,911 votes
cast).
The PiS
likes to portray Rafal Kazimierz Trzaskowski as anti-clerical, a representative
of the urban and liberal elite who does not understand and looks down on the
inhabitants of small provincial towns. It reminds voters that Rafal Kazimierz
Trzaskowski banned religious symbols, including the cross, from the offices of
Warsaw City Hall employees. ‘This type of message is part of the divide between
urban and rural areas in Poland. Rafal Kazimierz Trzaskowski is trying to avoid
being labelled a ‘typical Warsaw man’ ‘who does not understand the concerns of
voters in small towns,’ analysed Jaroslaw Flis, a sociologist at Jagiellonian
University in Krakow.
In this
presidential election, Rafal Kazimierz Trzaskowski faces the following
challenge: to rally more conservative Poles without losing his usual
supporters. This is why he is taking an increasingly firm stance on migrants,
pledging to deport foreign criminals and reject the migrant quotas imposed by
the European Union, as well as on Ukrainian refugees. The liberal candidate has
thus backtracked on the monthly allowance of 800 zlotys (€190) granted to
Ukrainian refugees for each child, stating that he would like this to be
conditional on the refugees having a declared job. According to a study carried
out by the Polish Central Bank (NBP), 70% of Ukrainian refugees living in
Poland are in employment. The challenge is difficult to meet, but the Civic
Platform candidate does not really have a choice: he cannot limit himself to
addressing his own camp and must absolutely succeed in reaching as many Poles
as possible. Furthermore, the high level of uncertainty caused by the
international situation has certainly diverted voters' attention away from the
government's domestic policy, which, according to opinion polls, is
unsatisfactory for the majority of Poles.
The election
of Rafal Kazimierz Trzaskowski as president would remove the obstacles to the
judicial reforms sought by Donald Tusk's government. The latter believes that
the reforms introduced by the previous administration have significantly
undermined the independence of the judiciary. The liberal candidate has also
promised to liberalise abortion laws, support renewable energy and launch a
long-term plan for the adoption of the single currency. The latter issue has
almost completely disappeared from public debate in Poland. By putting it on
the agenda, Rafal Kazimierz Trzaskowski wants to put Europe at the heart of
Polish politics.
Karol
Tadeusz Nawrocki was nominated as a candidate on 24 November. Little known to
the general public (as was Andrzej Duda when he was first elected on 24 May
2015), he is not a member of the PiS and describes himself as an independent
candidate and citizen. However, he is struggling to make his mark; on the
contrary, controversy continues to rage around him. ‘The mistake in choosing
Karol Nawrocki now seems obvious. As a “citizen candidate”, he was supposed to
broaden the electoral base of Law and Justice. However, after four months of
campaigning, his voting intentions are lower than those of the party: he is not
even convincing all Law and Justice supporters,’ said Antoni Dudek, a political
scientist and historian at Cardinal Stefan Wyszynski University in Warsaw.
PiS leader
Jaroslaw Kaczynski has therefore decided to play down his candidate with the
aim of turning the presidential election into a referendum on Donald Tusk's
government. Nevertheless, Karol Tadeusz Nawrocki has surprised observers with
his strong performance in the first televised debates against his opponents,
notably by adopting a strongman stance, which appeals to more and more voters
in Poland and elsewhere in these uncertain times.
Security and
migration are the main issues in the election campaign. Karol Tadeusz Nawrocki
has adopted a tougher stance towards Russia. ‘My position is that maintaining
diplomatic relations with a barbaric state is not good for Poland,’ he said in
an interview with Radio Zet. He criticised Ukrainian President Volodymyr
Zelensky, who, according to him, is behaving indecently towards his allies,
including Poland, when he claims that Ukraine was left alone at the start of
the Russian armed forces' invasion of its territory in February 2022. Karol
Tadeusz Nawrocki also said that Volodymyr Zelensky ‘cannot afford to succumb to
the pressure of the rebellion against the United States, which is active within
the European Union and in which our country's Prime Minister Donald Tusk is
also involved.’
‘There is a
visible rise in anti-Ukrainian sentiment in Polish society. Perhaps Karol
Tadeusz Nawrocki's team has concluded that the key to electoral success lies in
radical language,’ said Bartosz Rydlins, professor of political science at
Cardinal Stefan Wyszynski University. The PiS candidate congratulated Donald
Trump on his efforts to bring peace to the region and end the war in Ukraine,
even though the American president has been criticised for aligning himself
with Russia. Karol Tadeusz Nawrocki is also opposed to Ukraine joining NATO and
the European Union at this stage.
The
Presidential Function
Although
mainly ceremonial, the role of the Polish head of state is nonetheless
significant. Elected for a five-year term, he has the right of veto. The
President of the Republic can decide alone to hold a referendum, although this
procedure is rarely used due to low turnout rates in the country for such
elections. He is the head of the armed forces, ratifies international
agreements, appoints and dismisses ambassadors, and has the right to pardon,
which allows him to overturn court decisions on appeal. Under the Constitution,
he may not serve more than two consecutive terms.
All
candidates for the presidency must be at least 35 years old, and those born
before 1 August 1972 must have fulfilled the lustration requirements. The
so-called ‘lustration’ law came into force on 15 March 2007. It requires all
senior civil servants, teachers, lawyers, school principals and journalists
born before 1 August 1972 to answer the following question: ‘Did you secretly
and consciously collaborate with the former communist security services?’ The
answer is then forwarded to the Institute of National Remembrance, which is
responsible for checking the past of these individuals. If their collaboration
with the communist services is proven, those working in the public service are
automatically dismissed. Those who refuse to answer, or who are proven to have
lied, face a 10-year ban from practising their profession.
To stand for
election, a candidate must first collect 1,000 signatures from voters and
submit them to the Polish Electoral Commission. They then have 10 days to form
an electoral committee and collect a further 100,000 signatures of support.
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