How to watch Portugal’s election like a pro

 

How to watch Portugal’s election like a pro

 

Sunday’s snap vote may leave the country in an extended period of political standstill.

 

May 16, 2025 4:00 am CET

By Aitor Hernández-Morales

https://www.politico.eu/article/watch-portugal-election-pro-tips/

 

LISBON — Barely a year after Portugal held its last national election, voters are headed back to the polls this Sunday to decide who should run the country.

 

Earlier this year, Prime Minister Luís Montenegro’s integrity was called into question after the Portuguese press began reporting on Spinumviva — a data protection consultancy controlled by Montenegro’s family, with clients including several companies that hold government contracts. Although the center-right politician denied any conflict of interest and survived several censure motions filed against his minority government, he eventually stepped down after losing a confidence vote in parliament in March.

 

So little time has elapsed since the last election, that Sunday’s vote seems almost identical to last year’s: The same candidates are facing off against each other and a hung parliament seems inevitable. The major difference is that tensions between the country’s political factions have intensified over the past 14 months, and will potentially make it even more difficult to form a government.

 

Uninspiring choices

As was the case last year, the latest polls have Montenegro’s Democratic Alliance projected to win the most votes, but falling short of securing the 116 seats needed for majority rule. Pedro Nuno Santos’ Socialist Party is again expected to come in second, and the far-right Chega party will remain the third-largest group in parliament.

 

Whereas Montenegro and Santos were first-time candidates in the last race, voters have now gotten to know them, and polls suggest the public is unimpressed with both. Barely half the population approves of the incumbent prime minister, less than a third likes his center-left rival, and nearly half of respondents to one survey said they’d decline to take a round-the-world trip with either.

 

Polls also indicate many voters blame the Socialist Party for the political crisis that triggered this election — a factor that may give Montenegro an advantage on Sunday. In 2022, then-Prime Minister António Costa scored a landslide victory thanks to the support of electors who blamed his former far-left partners for scuppering his budget proposal and forcing his government’s fall.

 

Jinxed campaign

The campaign period itself has been marred by issues beyond Portugal’s borders.

 

The key debate between Montenegro and Santos had to be postponed after a freak blackout left the entire Iberian Peninsula in the dark for the better part of a day. And the first half of the official two-week campaign was overshadowed by the papal conclave, with little public or national media attention paid to electoral events at home

 

Paradoxically, the issues dominating the campaign were solidly domestic, with limited discussion of the impact of U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs or even Portugal’s role in European defense. Instead, candidates half-heartedly sparred over how immigration policies should be tightened, and over the Spinumviva “scandal.”

 

Surprisingly, one issue that didn’t come up was whether Montenegro would partner with the far right if he won the election but failed to secure a governing majority. Those fears abounded last year, but voters now appear satisfied the center-right politician can be trusted to keep the ultranationalists out of his executive.

 

Unclear outlook

If Montenegro can secure the largest share of the votes on Sunday, he’ll be called on to form a government. But if a majority of the fractured parliament’s lawmakers band together to reject his governing program, he can be stopped from assuming office.

 

Last year, Santos opted for constructive collaboration and ordered his Socialist Party to abstain in critical votes, which enabled Montenegro to both form a minority government and, later, pass a crucial budget bill. But relations between the two main parties have soured in the wake of the failed confidence vote, and it’s unclear if the center left will come to the center right’s rescue once more.

 

 

If Montenegro’s government does get shot down by the parliament, Santos will be called on to try his luck — but he’d be similarly rejected by center-right lawmakers, leaving the country in limbo. Portugal’s constitution doesn’t set a deadline for the formation of a new government, nor does it include any clause that would force the dissolution of parliament if lawmakers fail to confirm a new prime minister.

 

The constitution does, however, prohibit snap elections within six months of the vote and during the final six months of a presidential term. Given that President of the Republic Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa’s term concludes in March 2026, the earliest a fresh national election could be held is late spring of next year.

 

Never stop voting

If Portugal’s politicians are unable to reach a compromise, they could leave the country with Montenegro leading a caretaker government for the foreseeable future.

 

But political stagnation won’t relieve citizens of their electoral duties anytime soon. This fall, Portuguese voters will be summoned back to the polls to take part in nationwide local elections. In January, they’ll be called upon to choose de Sousa’s successor.

 

And if consensus proves impossible on Sunday, they may well be obliged to vote in a national election for the fourth time in four years, right around this time in 2026. Mark your calendars …