How to
watch Portugal’s election like a pro
Sunday’s
snap vote may leave the country in an extended period of political standstill.
May 16, 2025
4:00 am CET
By Aitor
Hernández-Morales
https://www.politico.eu/article/watch-portugal-election-pro-tips/
LISBON —
Barely a year after Portugal held its last national election, voters are headed
back to the polls this Sunday to decide who should run the country.
Earlier this
year, Prime Minister Luís Montenegro’s integrity was called into question after
the Portuguese press began reporting on Spinumviva — a data protection
consultancy controlled by Montenegro’s family, with clients including several
companies that hold government contracts. Although the center-right politician
denied any conflict of interest and survived several censure motions filed
against his minority government, he eventually stepped down after losing a
confidence vote in parliament in March.
So little
time has elapsed since the last election, that Sunday’s vote seems almost
identical to last year’s: The same candidates are facing off against each other
and a hung parliament seems inevitable. The major difference is that tensions
between the country’s political factions have intensified over the past 14
months, and will potentially make it even more difficult to form a government.
Uninspiring
choices
As was the
case last year, the latest polls have Montenegro’s Democratic Alliance
projected to win the most votes, but falling short of securing the 116 seats
needed for majority rule. Pedro Nuno Santos’ Socialist Party is again expected
to come in second, and the far-right Chega party will remain the third-largest
group in parliament.
Whereas
Montenegro and Santos were first-time candidates in the last race, voters have
now gotten to know them, and polls suggest the public is unimpressed with both.
Barely half the population approves of the incumbent prime minister, less than
a third likes his center-left rival, and nearly half of respondents to one
survey said they’d decline to take a round-the-world trip with either.
Polls also
indicate many voters blame the Socialist Party for the political crisis that
triggered this election — a factor that may give Montenegro an advantage on
Sunday. In 2022, then-Prime Minister António Costa scored a landslide victory
thanks to the support of electors who blamed his former far-left partners for
scuppering his budget proposal and forcing his government’s fall.
Jinxed
campaign
The campaign
period itself has been marred by issues beyond Portugal’s borders.
The key
debate between Montenegro and Santos had to be postponed after a freak blackout
left the entire Iberian Peninsula in the dark for the better part of a day. And
the first half of the official two-week campaign was overshadowed by the papal
conclave, with little public or national media attention paid to electoral
events at home
Paradoxically,
the issues dominating the campaign were solidly domestic, with limited
discussion of the impact of U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs or even
Portugal’s role in European defense. Instead, candidates half-heartedly sparred
over how immigration policies should be tightened, and over the Spinumviva
“scandal.”
Surprisingly,
one issue that didn’t come up was whether Montenegro would partner with the far
right if he won the election but failed to secure a governing majority. Those
fears abounded last year, but voters now appear satisfied the center-right
politician can be trusted to keep the ultranationalists out of his executive.
Unclear
outlook
If
Montenegro can secure the largest share of the votes on Sunday, he’ll be called
on to form a government. But if a majority of the fractured parliament’s
lawmakers band together to reject his governing program, he can be stopped from
assuming office.
Last year,
Santos opted for constructive collaboration and ordered his Socialist Party to
abstain in critical votes, which enabled Montenegro to both form a minority
government and, later, pass a crucial budget bill. But relations between the
two main parties have soured in the wake of the failed confidence vote, and
it’s unclear if the center left will come to the center right’s rescue once
more.
If
Montenegro’s government does get shot down by the parliament, Santos will be
called on to try his luck — but he’d be similarly rejected by center-right
lawmakers, leaving the country in limbo. Portugal’s constitution doesn’t set a
deadline for the formation of a new government, nor does it include any clause
that would force the dissolution of parliament if lawmakers fail to confirm a
new prime minister.
The
constitution does, however, prohibit snap elections within six months of the
vote and during the final six months of a presidential term. Given that
President of the Republic Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa’s term concludes in March
2026, the earliest a fresh national election could be held is late spring of
next year.
Never stop
voting
If
Portugal’s politicians are unable to reach a compromise, they could leave the
country with Montenegro leading a caretaker government for the foreseeable
future.
But
political stagnation won’t relieve citizens of their electoral duties anytime
soon. This fall, Portuguese voters will be summoned back to the polls to take
part in nationwide local elections. In January, they’ll be called upon to
choose de Sousa’s successor.
And if
consensus proves impossible on Sunday, they may well be obliged to vote in a
national election for the fourth time in four years, right around this time in
2026. Mark your calendars …
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