Far-right
AfD tops German poll for first time – just weeks after Friedrich Merz’s
election win
Published:
April 25, 2025 12.41pm CEST
Author
Ed Turner
Reader in
Politics, Co-Director, Aston Centre for Europe, Aston University
The
far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) has topped a national poll for the
first time, prompting the popular Bild newspaper to carry the headline: “AfD
breaks the magic barrier”. The poll put the AfD on 26% and the Christian
democratic CDU/CSU on 25%.
This is just
one opinion poll, but since February’s early federal election, the direction of
travel has been clear. Governments sometimes become unpopular mid-term, but
Germany isn’t mid-term. The federal election was just two months ago, and the
new government hasn’t yet been formed (this routinely takes months in Germany).
Nor has CDU leader Friedrich Merz become chancellor; the date pencilled in for
that is May 6.
So these
clear polling shifts (with the CDU/CSU down about 3% on the federal election,
the AfD up about 5%) are striking. They owe little to any finesse by the party
that has taken the lead, the AfD, and much more to the unusual circumstances in
which Germany’s mainstream parties have found themselves. They also pose a
salutary warning about possible future developments.
Following
the recent election, the AfD has a record 152 parliamentarians and is currently
embroiled in an argument about whether, given its expanded size, it can take
over a meeting room currently occupied by the SPD – a sensitive topic as it is
named after Otto Wels, a social democrat who opposed Hitler’s seizure of power.
So far, its
approach has been to attack the political mainstream it brands “cartel
parties”. In the new Bundestag’s first meeting, the AfD’s Stephan Brandner took
to insulting other parties (the SPD and Greens were “political dwarf Germans”,
mainstream parties were “lying” and “cheating”). None of this seems likely to
have driven the party’s poll surge – although the AfD does find some traction
when accusing Merz of betraying conservative voters.
What has,
however, affected the polls is Merz himself. The CDU leader presented himself
as a fiscal hawk during the federal election campaign, but within days of his
win, he performed a volte-face. He agreed to relax Germany’s constitutional
restrictions on debt so defence spending above 1% of GDP would no longer be
counted, likewise a new €500 billion fund for infrastructure.
The change
also meant Germany’s states could also run a modest deficit. These moves owed
much to pressure from the social democrat SPD – the infrastructure demand in
particular was a key condition from Merz’s only possible coalition partner. But
there was also a clear need to spend more on defence (given global
developments) and infrastructure, with no other funds being available.
Early
April’s Politbarometer poll showed just 36% thinking it “good” if Merz became
chancellor (59% “not good”). On a scale of 5 to -5, respondents rate Merz -0.8.
Even though the public backs the changes to debt rules he has made, there is a
sense that Merz was not honest with them in the election campaign.
These poor
ratings are in spite of coalition talks between CDU/CSU and SPD having gone
reasonably well. Not only did they agree on the debt rule reform, but a
coalition treaty is now being voted on by SPD members. The CDU will agree it at
the end of the month while the Bavarian CSU has already given the green light.
It includes
significant tightening of migration policy (at the outer reaches of what the
SPD would agree to), some cuts to VAT and corporation tax, and nods in the
direction of income tax cuts for lower and middle earners and a higher minimum
wage. That said, there has already been public argument between CDU/CSU and SPD
about how binding these commitments are – not a good omen for future
co-operation.
Pressure on
both sides
So while
this poll doesn’t change the fact that Merz will almost certainly be voted in
as chancellor leading a CDU/CSU coalition with the SPD, it does show that the
coalition is already facing an age-old problem for “grand coalitions” between
centre-left and centre-right parties.
The risk is
always that they will end up strengthening support for parties to their left
and right. The SPD faces a serious threat from the Greens and the resurgent
Left Party amongst those who would favour a more open attitude to immigration
and higher taxes for top earners, for example.
No matter
how far Merz goes on immigration and tax cuts, the AfD will accuse him of
betraying core conservative values and may continue to gain ground as a result.
Some leading CDU politicians have suggested treating the AfD as a more “normal”
opponent (for instance in allowing it to chair parliamentary committees). But
that would hardly be a game-changer.
Merz’s
difficulties are heightened by the global economic situation: Germans are
already deeply pessimistic about economic developments, and the impacts and
instability generated by US tariffs, whether implemented or potential, put the
country in the eye of the storm, making the job of governing more difficult
still.
A clear
majority of German voters still rejects any prospect of the AfD joining the
government, but they may have to get used to it being ahead in opinion polls.
Laura Hood
Politics
Editor & Assistant Editor, The Conversation UK
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