Analysis
Islamist
groups in Middle East will emerge from Gaza war weakened
Jason Burke
International
security correspondent
Hamas,
Hezbollah and other militia are enfeebled – but Palestine is likely to stay at
forefront of global politics
Thu 16 Jan
2025 17.41 GMT
The
ceasefire due to come into force on Sunday, barring a major last-minute
problem, will cement massive and rapid changes across the Middle East and may
seal a significant defeat for the Islamist militant groups that have been
powerful actors in the region for years.
Hamas in
Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon and assorted Shia Muslim militia in Iraq and Syria
will all emerge from the conflict considerably weakened. Only the Houthis in
Yemen are stronger – though this may not last. The Islamic State remains a
shadow of its former self.
For an
organisation like Hamas simply to survive a big conflict is an achievement, and
means Israel has failed to achieve one of its primary war aims. But the
concessions made by Hamas since coming close to a ceasefire last May underline
its enfeebled state.
Though no
reliable statistics exist and Hamas has undoubtedly recruited many new
fighters, its military arm has been badly degraded by the Israeli onslaught,
with most senior and middle-ranking commanders killed. The organisation
maintains patchy authority in some areas of Gaza but nothing that resembles its
full control through the 16 years when it completely controlled local
government.
In October,
Yahya Sinwar, the hardline Hamas leader and mastermind of the surprise attack
in 2023 that triggered the conflict, was killed in a clash with Israeli
soldiers in southern Gaza. The then political head of Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh,
was assassinated by Israel while in Tehran. The organisation is now
fundamentally split between a political leadership overseas, who have a more
pragmatic approach, and hardliners in Gaza.
This may be
a problem for the ceasefire – along with Israel’s reluctance to entirely quit
Gaza. Sinwar’s replacement in Gaza, his brother Mohammed, controls the hostages
who must be handed over for the deal to hold.
“The
ceasefire is in the hands of Mohammed Sinwar. No one outside can impose
anything on him,” said Mkhaimar Abusada, a political scientist at Al-Azhar
University in Gaza.
But Hamas
political leaders outside Gaza recognise the losses they have suffered, and
that they are being held partly responsible by Palestinians in Gaza for the
devastation of the territory, where more than 46,000 – mostly civilians – have
died in the Israeli offensive.
This is
important for the “day after” the conflict, and how swiftly Hamas can recover,
if it can at all.
“In Gaza,
people are tired of Hamas … they would like anything that will bring
reconstruction and they know that the international community won’t spend a
dollar if Hamas is in charge,” Abusada said.
Though
experts point out high levels of support for Hamas in the occupied West Bank,
others talk of the organisation’s “legitimacy crisis”. One big reason for the
ceasefire is a new reality in the Middle East: that many of Hamas’s strongest
allies are no longer in a position to help them.
Hezbollah,
the keystone of Tehran’s “axis of resistance”, has suffered huge losses in its
battle with Israel, losing most of its leadership and arsenal since Israel
launched its offensive against the group last October. Almost as important was
the fall of Bashar al-Assad in Syria, which has deprived Hezbollah of a major
logistics base and supply route from Iran, its vital supporter for more than 40
years. Political defeat has followed the military one. Last week, the Lebanese
parliament finally elected a new president who is committed to curtailing
Hezbollah’s power.
Iraq-based,
pro-Iranian militants have been unable to inflict any significant damage on
Israel throughout the conflict.
“Hamas
hasn’t changed, but the international context has,” said a source close to the
organisation.
The proxies
that Tehran has carefully cultivated over decades are now well aware of their
sponsor’s recent failures.
“Iran lost
Syria so quickly – in just 10 days – that many Iranians, Iraqis, Lebanese and
others will be asking: how did this happen? It will take time for the members
of the axis of resistance to restore their morale,” said Arman Mahmoudian, at
the Global and National Security Institute in Florida.
With Hamas
and Hezbollah so weakened, the most active among the Iranian coalition of
militant groups are the Houthis in Yemen, who continue to fire missiles and
rockets at Israel and target global shipping. Recent Israeli airstrikes appear
to have had little dissuasive effect, though a ceasefire is likely to end
hostilities, experts said.
Observers
have warned of a wave of radicalisation across much of the Islamic world as a
result of the war. This has already resulted in sporadic violence and fears
among security officials of more to come. US officials in particular have
raised concerns, reinforced by the Islamic State-inspired attack in New Orleans
earlier this month.
Regional
security officials now think that this might begin to subside, though “only
just in time”.
Another
significant development has been the victorious campaign of Hayat Tahrir
al-Sham, the Islamist group, in Syria. The group is led by Ahmed al-Sharaa, a
former senior commander in both al-Qaida and Islamic State. For years, Sharaa
has made efforts to convince Syrians and the international community that he
has jettisoned his extremist ideology, reaching out to minorities and
downplaying religious agendas.
The success
of Sharaa’s pragmatic strategy contrasts with the unchanging approach of the
groups he once fought for. This too could further undermine the extremists.
A final
major shift is the return of the Palestinian issue to the forefront of regional
and global politics. If Israel’s policymakers and generals feel vindicated by
any apparent success, this might give pause.
“Gaza has
been a gamechanger for Israel. Its reputation has been badly damaged, there are
the international criminal cases [against Israeli leaders], the global moral
backlash and the conflict has pushed the Palestinians up the international
agenda. There is now a whole new generation of global citizens who believe the
Palestinians should be free,” said Alia Brahimi, a regional expert at the
Atlantic Council.
“We can’t
assume that a ceasefire will hold, but if it does, it gives everyone the
opportunity to do what they should have done all along. It is an opportunity to
move away from war as a tool or a default solution.”
A definitive
end to the conflict in Gaza will help reduce the chaos and violence across the
region that extremists of all types can exploit, say experts.
“If the
ceasefire becomes permanent, we will see more stability in the region,” said
Abusada.
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