Von der
Leyen’s Green Deal faces tough political battles
The vast
policy plan meant to transform the Continent’s economy is set to face resistance
in national capitals and EU institutions.
By MAÏA DE
LA BAUME, PAOLA TAMMA AND KALINA OROSCHAKOFF 12/10/19, 9:01 PM CET Updated
12/11/19, 10:12 AM CET
Just 11
days into the EU’s top job, Ursula von der Leyen is laying her cards on the
table on her most high-profile policy initiative.
The
European Commission president will on Wednesday unveil in the European
Parliament her plan for the European Green Deal, aiming at making Europe the
first climate-neutral continent by 2050.
She should
gear up for a fight.
The Green
Deal is expected to include a climate law committing the bloc to achieving
net-zero emissions by 2050 and a plan to up the bloc's mid-term climate targets
for 2030; a carbon border mechanism to make importers pay more for polluting
products; a financing mechanism of up to €100 billion to pay for the transition;
and initiatives spanning agriculture, transport, energy, chemicals,
construction and more.
Von der
Leyen’s announcement will take place a day before EU leaders gather for a
European Council summit to discuss the 2050 climate-neutrality goal.
“I want us
to agree on the commitment for the EU to become climate-neutral by 2050,”
European Council President Charles Michel told leaders in his invitation
letter, released Tuesday evening, to the first EU summit he’ll chair. He added:
“However, we must also recognize that it will require efforts from all member
states. We will put in place a framework and the necessary resources to chart a
fair and balanced path towards our objective. This means taking into account
the different national realities and starting points.”
In a
preview of the political battles ahead, three countries — Poland, the Czech
Republic and Hungary — still have to agree on that broad target, advancing
demands for more financial support from Brussels.
“We know
that if von der Leyen is serious about the Green Deal, she will not have 100
percent of the EPP, 100 percent of socialists and 100 percent of the liberals
on board” — Philippe Lamberts, Greens co-leader
“Given the very different starting positions,
reaching climate neutrality will require more investments for some Member
States ... we have to be sure that the incentives and the enabling framework to
be put in place, especially adequate funding, are provided to cover the costs
of such a transition,” Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babiš this month wrote to
von der Leyen and European Council President Charles Michel, in a letter seen
by POLITICO.
Von der
Leyen and Frans Timmermans, the Commission’s executive vice president in charge
of the Green Deal, will defend the plan in front of European lawmakers at a
special plenary session Wednesday.
Getting the
Parliament on board will be easier than for some EU countries that perceive the
new green ambitions from Brussels as too expensive and hard to swallow. The
Parliament’s major groups already backed the principle of a climate-neutral
continent as the basis for Europe to be a role model in the fight against
climate change.
“I expect
the Green Deal to be a game changer,” said French MEP Pascal Canfin, the
chairman of Parliament’s environment committee and a prominent member of the
centrist Renew Europe group. “We need to have a pre-Green Deal situation and a
post-Green Deal situation."
But
political fights are likely to arise when the Commission comes up with
milestone targets for how to get there, the details of financing and actual
legislative proposals — particularly around the EU’s Emissions Trading System,
the bloc's flagship carbon market, and the Common Agricultural Policy.
“We know
that if von der Leyen is serious about the Green Deal, she will not have 100
percent of the EPP, 100 percent of socialists and 100 percent of the liberals
on board,” Philippe Lamberts, the co-leader of the Greens said, referring to
the conservative European People's Party and the other biggest groups in
Parliament.
“We will
have a catalog of good intentions [...],” Lamberts added. “What we need to see
is what concrete legislative proposals we get out of the Commission in the next
month, in the next two months, three months, four months and so on and so
forth.”
Von der
Leyen’s decision to present the centerpiece of her policy program firsthand to
the Parliament is an unusual step for a Commission president. It shows an
effort by the German politician to involve the Parliament in the Commission’s
policy-building. It is also a way to signal to MEPs that their approval is
crucial to its implementation.
The
Commission generally introduces its policy proposals to the press and in the
Commission’s premises.
Pulling in
opposite directions
When it
comes to the most controversial plan to increase the EU’s emission reduction
target — from the current goal of a 40 percent cut by 2030 to 50 percent, or
even 55 percent — even a parliamentary majority could be difficult to win.
“It must be
cost-efficient and to really have an effect, it must be aligned with other
major economies" — Peter Liese, EPP spokesperson on climate issues
The S&D
and Renew Europe support a 55 percent goal. But the Greens and the far-left GUE
have called for even more ambitious targets, deeming that one underwhelming.
The Greens target a reduction of 65 percent by 2030 and GUE even higher.
“The goal
of a 55 percent CO2 reduction by 2030 is the minimum for us,” Iratxe Garcia,
the leader of the S&D, said from Madrid, where she was participating in the
ongoing COP25 climate summit. “We hope we can move even faster towards a
carbon-neutral society, hopefully even before 2050, but appropriate measures to
accompany the social impact must be put in place.”
At the
opposite end of the spectrum, groups including the conservative EPP fear a 55
percent target would be too far-reaching and could undermine economic growth
and threaten jobs.
“I think
von der Leyen has a right balance, including when it comes to the target,” said
Peter Liese, the EPP’s spokesperson on climate issues. But “we are not in favor
of going to 55 percent without any condition," he continued. "It will
be very ambitious and maybe we will lose jobs when we do it too fast and that’s
why we can only do it after a careful analysis."
“It must be
cost-efficient and to really have an effect, it must be aligned with other
major economies," Liese said.
Legislative
reforms including to the Emissions Trading System and Common Agricultural
Policy are set to affect major industries, meaning von der Leyen could have
trouble getting clear support from a pro-European majority, particularly from
her own EPP camp.
“We are
prepared to provide the votes that will be missing,” the Greens’ Lamberts said.
“But of course, the condition will be ambition and policy commitments.”
The
Emissions Trading System encouraged companies to pollute less by establishing a
market for carbon by capping the amount of allowed emissions and slapping a
price on them, currently hovering around €25 per ton of emitted carbon dioxide
and set to rise. Von der Leyen is set to propose extending this to the shipping
and aviation sectors, currently largely untouched by this cap-and-trade
mechanism.
“The ETS
reform will probably be tough piece,” Canfin said. “Because it will be very
difficult for some industries ... to accept tougher rules if they don’t have
the feeling that it is fair.”
Another
thorny issue will be a carbon border tax, supported by countries including
France and Germany to protect EU companies forced to comply with tough
greenhouse gas rules, but on which the European Commission will have to tread
carefully with global trade rules.
The
Commission must also address the Common Agricultural Policy and whether its
current functioning is aligned with the targets set by the Paris Agreement of
limiting global warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius.
Though
pro-European groups are increasingly aligned on climate issues, a sample of the
political divisions was on full display last month when Parliament approved a
resolution declaring a climate and environmental emergency ahead of the U.N.’s
COP25 conference.
The text
was approved by 429 votes in favor to 225 against, with 19 abstentions. The EPP
tabled a rival motion calling for Europe to declare climate “urgency” instead
of an “emergency.”
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