The
return of the awkward squad
Two
weeks in, Poland’s new government is making Europe nervous
Dec 5th 2015 |
LUBLIN AND WARSAW | From the print edition
POLAND is one of the
European Union’s biggest success stories. Since it joined the EU in
2004 its GDP per head has almost doubled. Poles are more likely to be
fond of Brussels than most other big members of the club. But since
Poland’s new government, led by the populist Law and Justice party
(PiS), came into power on November 16th, the cosy relationship
between Poland and the rest of Europe is in danger. Increasingly, the
poster child for European integration seems more like a moody
teenager.
Much of PiS’s
success can be explained by the unpopularity of the previous
government, led by Civic Platform (PO). After eight years of PO many
Poles were fed up; the party was seen as careerist, aimless and out
of touch. But PiS also broadened its appeal, running a campaign that
made it appear far more moderate. Older, rural voters still make up
the core of its support (see chart). But during the election it came
first among 18-29 year olds too. And since winning the election in
October with over 37% of the votes, its popularity has surged. One
recent poll puts its support at 42%.
Since taking office
PiS has dropped all pretence of moderation. Beata Szydlo, the prime
minister, has little clout. The real power is in the hands of
Jaroslaw Kaczynski, the party’s divisive leader (pictured above,
with Ms Szydlo), who was prime minister during PiS’s incompetent
term in government in 2005-7. Before the election Ms Szydlo pledged
not to give the defence ministry to Antoni Macierewicz, one of the
party’s kookiest conspiracy theorists. (Like many in PiS, he
believes that a 2010 plane crash that killed Mr Kaczynski’s brother
Lech, Poland’s president at the time, was a Russian plot, and that
a government investigation that found it was an accident was a
cover-up.) Nevertheless Mr Macierewicz, a longtime crony of Mr
Kaczynski, was made minister of defence. The government now says it
will reopen the investigation into the crash.
PiS is consolidating
its control over other levers of power, too. It has sacked the heads
of the security and intelligence services and put in its own men. It
annulled the appointment of five constitutional judges approved under
PO and substituted ideological allies, disregarding a court that
warned the move may be unconstitutional. Andrzej Duda, the president,
pardoned Mariusz Kaminski, a friend of Mr Kaczynski sentenced to
three years in jail for abuse of power when he headed an
anti-corruption bureau. He now has the even more powerful job of
intelligence co-ordinator. The new culture minister tried to axe a
highbrow theatre production featuring onstage nudity; a state TV
journalist who pressed him about the botched decision was briefly
suspended.
Such domestic
developments are troubling, but the government’s attitude to Europe
and foreign policy appears to be worse. The morning after the attacks
in Paris, its minister for Europe wrote an editorial pronouncing the
hard-won EU agreement to distribute migrants among member states to
be a dead letter. Ms Szydlo has backed off that stance but still
seems unable to commit to the refugee scheme; in an interview, she
was optimistic that Europe would now take a more “rational”
approach to the migrant crisis. The government has mooted cancelling
defence contracts with French and American companies, preferring ones
which use factories in Poland. PiS has redoubled Poland’s
opposition to Europe’s climate policies; 85% of Polish electricity
already comes from coal-fired power plants, yet the new government
obstinately vows to build even more.
This all threatens
Poland’s international credibility, says Piotr Buras of the
European Council on Foreign Relations, a think-tank. After eight
years in opposition, most PiS politicians have few international
contacts. Besides, the government is more concerned with domestic
matters. Ms Szydlo plans to start paying parents monthly child
benefits, increase the standard tax deduction, and lower the
retirement age to 60 for women and 65 for men. Those over 75 will get
free medication, and the state healthcare budget will be boosted.
While PiS’s
denunciations of immigrants draw headlines, it is the economic
policies that its voters really care about. In Lublin, a poor town in
Poland’s agricultural east that is a stronghold of PiS support, a
party activist does mention the fight against “genderisation”,
the party’s catch-all term for feminism and gay and transgender
rights. But among local voters, the talk is all of scant pensions and
low wages.
How the new social
policies will be funded is unclear. The changes, especially on
pensions, are very costly. Proposed taxes on banks and supermarkets
cover only a fraction of their cost, according to Polityka Insight, a
think-tank. The budget deficit could hit 4% of GDP next year. With an
ageing population and many young people leaving for elsewhere in the
EU, lowering the retirement age seems disastrous.
European diplomats
are publicly taking a restrained approach to Poland’s new
government. Privately, many are worried. The productive Polish-German
relationship could break down over migrants. To judge by its previous
term, PiS may grow wilder with time rather than tamer. What is
certain is that Europe has a new awkward country to deal with.
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