The Economist explains
Why this month’s European election matters more than
most
May 5th 2014, 23:50 by Charlemagne | BRUSSELS
EUROPEANS will go to the polls on May
22nd-25th to select the members of the European Parliament in a ballot that
will be a measure of popular support for European integration after years of
crisis and, more importantly, provide a gauge of the strength of anti-EU
parties of both left and right. European elections are usually minor affairs,
marked by ever-falling turnout and high numbers of protest votes. But this time
the election will matter more than usual and could influence—most probably
indirectly—the course of the European project.
Successive EU treaties have given ever
greater powers to the European Parliament, to the point where it is now almost
equal in stature to the Council of Ministers (which represents governments) in
approving legislation proposed by the European Commission (the EU's civil
service). But growing powers have done nothing to reverse the unbroken trend of
falling turnout, which has dipped at every election since direct elections were
instituted 1979. Nor has it addressed the perception of a "democratic deficit"
at the heart of Europe . One reason is that
laws written in Brussels are often complex, while power is diffuse and
decisions subject to murky compromises in multiple institutions. Another factor
is that the most contentious issue of recent years—when and on what terms
over-indebted countries should be bailed out—has been mainly decided by
national governments, not EU institutions. A third explanation is that Europe's
roughly 500m citizens have little sense of common political identity; they do
not make up a "demos".
The European Parliament is trying to kindle
public interest by turning the ballot into a contest for the next president of
the Commission, a post traditionally decided by national leaders. The leading
umbrella-parties are fielding candidates known by the German name of
Spitzenkandidaten, complete with a series of face-to-face debates, and have
agreed that the candidate of the largest group will be parliament's choice to
lead the commission. Government leaders are suspicious of the idea but have not
dared halt the process. A protracted standoff over the nomination is a distinct
possibility, and would lead to paralysis in Brussels
Although the federalists may gain more
influence, Eurosceptics are also bound to gain in strength. On the right they
are likely to form at least three groupings: critical reformists dominated by
Britain's Tories (currently known as European Conservatives and Reformists, or
ECR); a more sceptical coalition dominated by Britain's UK Independence Party
(currently known as Europe of Freedom and Democracy) and a new far-right
alliance led by the Front National in France, the Freedom Party in the
Netherlands and others. Counting those on the left, polls suggest these
Eurosceptics may raise their vote from one-fifth to nearly one-third of the
751-seat parliament (excluding the ECR, the share rises from about one-tenth to
one-quarter). Eurosceptics will struggle to influence legislation directly, but
they will nevertheless have three subtler effects. First, their numbers will
make it harder for EU institutions to argue that the answer to every problem is
"more Europe ". Second, they will
force mainstream parties to form a grand coalition to get legislation approved,
thereby aggravating the democratic deficit. And third, they will weaken and
terrify many national governments, pulling them towards more Eurosceptical
policies. All this may prevent Europe from
enacting the reforms it so desperately needs, from deepening the single market,
to promoting free trade and fixing the euro zone.
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