Analysis
Death of
Yahya Sinwar is boost for Netanyahu but may not end war
Jason Burke
International
security correspondent
Killing will
throw Hamas into disarray and give encouragement to Israeli military and
political officials
Thu 17 Oct
2024 17.49 CEST
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/oct/17/yahya-sinwar-hamas-gaza-netanyahu-israel-war
The death of
Yahya Sinwar, the head of Hamas and mastermind of the 7 October attacks, has
huge implications for the conflict in Gaza, for Israel’s other campaigns in
Lebanon and the occupied West Bank, and for Israel’s domestic politics.
There will
be the war – or wars – before the killing of the 62-year-old veteran militant
and the war(s) after it.
One of the
biggest immediate impacts will obviously be on Hamas, which has now lost much
of its top leadership. Already the head of its military wing in Gaza, Sinwar
took charge of the organisation after Ismail Haniyeh, his predecessor, died in
a bomb explosion in a government guesthouse in Tehran in July that was blamed
on Israel. Other senior officials were killed in Beirut and in Gaza, where
Israeli airstrikes successfully targeted military Hamas commanders such as
Marwan Issa and Mohammed Deif.
Hamas will
portray Sinwar as a martyr and look to frame his death in a way that will
inspire new volunteers. That he appears to have died fighting on a frontline,
with a weapon in his hand, will help this. But whatever the propaganda, the
elimination of such a respected leader is unlikely to boost recruitment, and
Hamas sorely needs new manpower in Gaza where it has taken heavy casualties.
Command in
Gaza is likely to pass to Sinwar’s younger brother, Mohammed, 49, who will
probably continue the strategy of low-level insurgent resistance to Israel,
with a focus on retaining some kind of shadow administrative control in the
territory and exploiting international outrage over civilian casualties to put
pressure on Israel.
But more
broadly Hamas will be thrown into disarray. It will now have to find a new
overall leader. Sinwar, despite all the authority he had gathered over decades,
was a controversial choice and though the succession of his brother would send
a powerful message, Mohammed Sinwar would struggle to unify and rally the
organisation. Major strategic choices postponed by the appointment of Yahya
Sinwar will now have to be made, under great pressure and in the full knowledge
that the Israeli security services are capable of tracking and killing even the
most senior officials.
In Israel,
where Benjamin Netanyahu is still blamed by many for the security failures that
led to the death of 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and the abduction of 250 in
the 7 October attacks, Sinwar’s killing will greatly reinforce the prime
minister’s political position and rally his hardline rightwing support base.
Netanyahu’s poll ratings were already improving after a series of tactical
successes in Lebanon, including the assassination of Hezbollah’s leader Hassan
Nasrallah, and quickly there were reports of celebrations in Jerusalem on
Thursday.
The death of
Sinwar will undoubtedly be seen by some Israelis, including many in senior
posts in the military, intelligence services and government, as a moment to
declare victory in Gaza and end what is widely seen as a draining, if
necessary, campaign. But how much real difference this could make on the ground
is unclear.
One
possibility is that ceasefire negotiations will receive a boost now that one of
the two individuals who have been accused of blocking any deal is gone. But the
attitude of any successor to Sinwar to talks may not be that different, and
Netanyahu has always insisted that military pressure is what will bring back
the 100 or so hostages in Gaza, of whom only half are thought to still be
alive. The chances of Netanyahu now agreeing to release thousands of
Palestinian prisoners, including many who have killed Israelis, and make other
painful concessions must be slim.
There is a
possibility that the US could now press Israel to declare an end to its
offensive in Gaza – something that would come as a huge relief to Democratic
party campaign strategists. Washington has ramped up pressure on Israel in
recent days over increasing access to humanitarian aid for the 2.3 million
inhabitants of Gaza, most of them displaced many times, who are facing a winter
without adequate food, shelter and medication. A recent surge in airstrikes has
pushed the total death toll since October last year to more than 42,500.
But even if
Israel did decide to declare victory in Gaza with the death of Sinwar –
something that analysts have long predicted – it may not mean the dawning of
the “day after”. Israeli officials have made clear their military control and
operations will continue in Gaza for as long as they deem them necessary, and
no one has yet come up with a new political set-up in Gaza that might be
acceptable to all parties.
Israel has
already switched its focus to the battle against Hezbollah in Lebanon, and more
broadly against Iran across the region. Netanyahu has so far rejected any
ceasefire in the north, in the probably justified belief that Israel has the
upper hand, and is yet to order retaliation for the barrage of 180 missiles
launched at Israel by Iran earlier this month. This riposte will undoubtedly
come.
The killing
of Sinwar will further boost the confidence of Israeli military, intelligence
and political officials who have already been greatly encouraged by their
recent successes. Much of Israel’s strategic thinking is dominated by the need
to restore what it sees as deterrence necessary to its survival, and to
permanently weaken Iran.
Sinwar’s
elimination will be emotionally satisfying for many Israelis, politically
useful for Netanyahu and his supporters and a major blow for Hamas, but it is
unlikely to bring the multiple conflicts under way in the Middle East to a
sudden end.
