2h ago
21.56
AEDT
Von der
Leyen rolls out pitch for 'EU Inc' as she rebukes Trump over tariff threats -
snap analysis
Jakub
Krupa
A fairly
straightforward message from EU’s von der Leyen: in this crazy world we live
in, the EU is well positioned and ready to reform as needed to respond to the
“geopolitical shocks” of Trump, Russia and China, with no return to the world
as it used to be (11:16).
She
advanced a positive vision of how the EU could and should change to make the
most of its potential and assert itself as a global power in its own right,
reducing dependencies where they carry unacceptable risks, and leveraging new
emerging relationship with others.
In this
vein, she repeatedly took aim at Trump for his threats, stressing the EU’s
commitment to “free trade over tariffs” – including with new partners globally,
be it Mercosur or India – and wilingness to push for more (11:20).
(What she
didn’t say, perhaps understandably, is that some of these trade mores are very
much controversial and could become a real political problem down the line.)
But she
also spoke about the EU’s own reformist agenda, with hints of frustration over
the national bureaucracy and red tape, and the need to make it easier to invest
and run business (11:25).
These
lines will no doubt be popular with the Davos audience, and the sentiment
behind them is shared by a growing number of EU leaders talking about the need
to deregulate and simplify things after years of what some of them see as
overregulation.
(Another
thing she didn’t mention is the EU’s own very real political risks arising from
the rise of the far-right, which could take control of some key EU capitals in
the coming years, posing a clear risk to businesses thinking about expanding in
the bloc. But, quite understandably, that’s not the time or place for it.)
On
foreign policy, she reiterated the EU’s key lines on Ukraine, but it’s not
entirely clear what’s the path forward here as the peace process – note her
name-checking Trump with credit – appears to be stuck. Her declaration that the
EU will be there for Ukraine for as long as it’s needed is important, but some
big questions remain unanswered there.
Finally,
she delivered a strong rebuke to Trump on Greenland: even as she diplomatically
said she shared his security assessments, she made it very clear that
threatening Denmark or Greenland is not the way forward and “the sovereignty
and integrity of their territory is non negotiable.”
She
called Trump’s tariff threats “a mistake” (11:31) and pointedly warned about
“plunging us into a downward spiral would only aid the very adversaries we are
both so committed to keeping out of the strategic landscape” (11:36). These are
strong lines, but they won’t make her any more popular with Trump.
Her
pledge to work on “a massive European investment surge in Greenland” is also
interesting, but let’s see what it actually means. Also, there is a risk of
Trump seeing that as an offensive move amid his interest in the territory.
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