Analysis
A Gaza
ceasefire deal could be Trump’s biggest diplomatic achievement – but the devil
is in the detail
Andrew
Roth
in
Washington
The plan
attempts to thread the needle between creating the conditions for a ceasefire
and negotiating a lasting end to the war but hard questions remain
Thu 9 Oct
2025 02.41 BST
For
Donald Trump, a peace deal – or even a durable ceasefire between Israel and
Hamas – could be the biggest diplomatic achievement of his presidency.
The
details and sequencing of a deal to end Israel’s war in Gaza remain murky but
the statement of purpose by both Israel and Hamas is meaningful. In agreeing to
a deal with political backing from Arab states and other regional powers, this
is the best chance for an end to the war since a ceasefire broke down in March,
returning Gaza to a grinding war that has left nearly 68,000 people dead, most
of them civilians.
Since
March there have been rumblings of a deal but nothing that has come this close.
The first phase of the peace plan, as Trump called it in a Truth Social post on
Wednesday, is straightforward: the return of hostages held by Hamas in exchange
for a limited withdrawal by the Israeli military. But finding all the hostages,
and managing an Israeli withdrawal, could be complicated.
In
keeping with the tone of Trump’s presidency, hopes are expressed in hyperbole,
with the president saying: “ALL of the Hostages will be released very soon, and
Israel will withdraw their Troops to an agreed upon line as the first steps
toward a Strong, Durable, and Everlasting Peace. All Parties will be treated
fairly!”
There is
so much left to be discussed. The 20-point peace plan proposed by the
administration attempts to thread the needle between creating the conditions
for a ceasefire and negotiating a lasting end to the war; the hard questions of
Hamas’s future and whether the militant group will disarm, along with Israel’s
vision for the future of Gaza, remain to be hammered out.
And we
have been here before: the Trump administration was in a hurry to negotiate an
end to the Gaza war even before the inauguration, and a hastily organised
ceasefire in January broke down over the sequencing of the release of the
hostages still held in Gaza.
Yet this
is a crucial moment. As the US president spoke at an anti-antifa roundtable on
Wednesday afternoon, he was handed a note by the secretary of state, Marco
Rubio: “Very close. We need you to approve a Truth Social post soon so you can
announce deal first.”
Nobody
said Israel’s war in Gaza had to end with Oslo-style peace accords or political
deliberations.
This is a
different moment – an openly partisan and flighty US president, who nonetheless
has wielded his unpredictability to keep both his allies and enemies
off-balance. Trump is also said to be motivated by a desire to see himself as
the first US president given the Nobel peace prize since Barack Obama.
That
prize is to be delivered on Friday, and the desire to give the US president a
win has driven political considerations in Washington and throughout the Middle
East.
The
remaining tensions are clear. Hamas called on Trump and other parties to
“ensure that the Israeli occupation government fully complies with the terms of
the agreement”. The fear is that Israel may resume its offensive once the
hostages are returned.
“We will
never abandon our people’s national rights until freedom, independence, and
self-determination are achieved,” the group said, referring obliquely to a
desire for Palestinian statehood that has been rejected by Netanyahu and
largely abandoned by the White House.
Netanyahu,
too, has political considerations to deal with. On Thursday, he said, he would
“convene the government to approve the agreement and bring all our dear
hostages home”. He must manage the response from the rightwing members of his
government, including the finance minister, Bezalel Smotrich, and the national
security minister, Itamar Ben-Gvir, who have threatened to topple the
government in the event of a ceasefire.
Trump has
tried to overcome those considerations by brute force, threatening “all hell”
would break out in Gaza against Hamas if his desire for peace was not met. When
Netanyahu expressed doubt about the deal, Axios reports that he told the
Israeli leader: “I don’t know why you’re always so fucking negative … This is a
win. Take it.”
The US
president is said to be planning to travel to the region this weekend for the
signing of a deal. This is his moment, and it may require all of his personal
brand and influence to prevent yet another breakdown of talks and a return to
the fighting in what would be a diplomatic defeat for his administration.
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